Understanding the Invasion Risks of Baltic Republics

  

“Let’s not fool ourselves” 

Edgars Rinkēvičs, Latvian foreign minister

As Sweden and Finland move off the fence towards NATO membership, they face a recent (March 12th) threat from the Russian Foreign Ministry of “serious military and political consequences.” Finland shares an 810-mile border with Russia. During Stalin’s rule of the Soviet Union, the Finns successfully repelled a Russian invasion. But until recently, Sweden and Finland tried to walk a middle ground between Russia and the rest of the west. That middle ground vaporized with Putin’s war in Ukraine:

“Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said two weeks ago that the country would be carrying out a security policy review and that it would be ready at the end of May. ‘I do not exclude NATO membership in any way,’ she said. Stefan Nordstrom, a major in the Swedish Army, told Reuters that it would be ‘naïve’ to not recognize that there is a threat from Russia. ‘The security situation in the whole of Europe has changed, and we have to accept that, and we have to adapt,’ he said.” Yahoo! News, April 11th. Experts expect formal application of both Finland and Sweden to join NATO early this summer.

But if Russia is aghast at Sweden and Finland’s potential membership in NATO, two countries that were never part of the Soviet Union, it faces more direct challenges from three NATO members – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia (the Baltic Republics) – that were very much a part of Soviet Russia. And as usual, the focus comes down to tensions in those border regions where there are lots of Russian speakers, even where they are totally content to live without repatriation to Russia. Putin’s rhetoric follows the same “spoken language/culture” excuse that Hitler used to invade the Czech Sudetenland and take Austria in pre-WWII and that Vladimir Putin used to annex Crimea, invade Georgia and support so-called “Russian separatists” in eastern Ukraine. Of course, Putin added the excuse of suppressing Nazi’s to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Look at the above map of Estonia. That little red arrow points to an area of eastern Estonia filled with Russian speakers. In normal times, people crossed the border for shopping excursions, but these are no longer normal times. Estonia is deeply concerned about a fifth column of Russian agents who have infiltrated the region around Narva. The above poster, written in Estonian, Ukrainian, Russian and English is common in eastern Estonia… and clear evidence of Estonia’s concern.

Writing for NBC News, April 11th, Phil McCausland brings home the realities these Baltic states face, starting with the small (55 thousand) border town of Narva: “[Narva could] be at the edge of a new Iron Curtain created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s a place between two worlds, where Russia and Russian identity meet Estonia and the West… That’s apparent even in the architecture: Hard-edged brutalist buildings of the Soviet era house or sit between sushi restaurants, a German grocer and a startup incubator…

“Estonia, as well as the neighboring Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania, have populations that reflect that mix and the tense geopolitics. Many here describe three camps among Russian speakers. About a third entirely oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine, while a middle group says it desires peace but expresses a sense of confusion among vacillating reports from Western news media and Russian propaganda sources. A small minority support Russia’s invasion... 

“[There] are concerns that the Russian speakers in the Baltics could provide another avenue for President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s sphere of influence. Some also believe the group could be manipulated by Moscow — and the propaganda that is broadcast across borders — to become unwitting agents in the new Cold War that’s beginning to take shape…

“More than 95 percent of Narva residents speak Russian, and at least 30 percent carry Russian passports, so every act of the Kremlin’s aggression becomes a flashpoint for the city… Estonia and other countries have tried to integrate Russian-speaking communities to varying degrees in the past, but the efforts are assuming a new urgency. The war in Ukraine increasingly worries some officials in the Baltic states that Russian speakers could be marks for disinformation and thus threats to national security… 

“Many more signals come from Russia itself: The state Duma, the lower house of parliament, said it was considering legislation that would declare all Russian speakers ‘compatriots’ of the state and worthy of Russia’s protection, and former President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said last week that the goal of the Ukraine war is for ‘the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia — from Lisbon to Vladivostok.’

“In response, Estonia has pushed for greater military support from NATO, and it recently added some restrictions on Russians and Belarusians who want to declare residency in Estonia, which has made it more difficult for people from those countries without visas to travel here… Estonia’s police and border guard services have also increased security measures at the border crossing… 

“Edgars Rinkēvičs, the Latvian foreign minister, said in an interview last week that the government is keeping a close eye on the situation. Officials have provided more than 160 humanitarian visas to Russians since the start of the war, but they have clamped down on immigration as much as they can from Belarus and Russia because some peple are simply fleeing the economic situation.

“The Latvian Parliament, meanwhile, is considering bills that would suspend issuing temporary residence permits to citizens of Russia and Belarus until July 2023. A second bill would allow for the stripping of Latvian citizenship from those who have supported war or other crimes against a democratic state or the people who committed those crimes.” Is Putin contemplating a full march into Europe, perhaps one small invasion/annexation at a time, like Hitler? Will he wait until his military is rebuilt for the effort or launch early before that new “Iron Curtain” can be sufficiently militarily reinforced? Or sit, fuming, that his dream has collapsed. Perhaps, however, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s warning that Putin’s war is just the beginning of an attack on Western democracy accurate? An unavoidable WWIII? Does Putin need more evidence of our resolve and deterrence?

I’m Peter Dekom, and if you read all the details of this Russian abomination, the rationale for a strong NATO response and stronger support of Ukraine just may be what is necessary.