Has Putin’s War Destroyed the United Nations

Russian tanks abandoned in Ukraine

“We are in rough seas… A winter of global discontent is on the horizon. A cost-of-living crisis is raging. Trust is crumbling. Inequalities are exploding. Our planet is burning. People are hurting — with the most vulnerable suffering the most…. The United Nations Charter and the ideals it represents are in jeopardy. We have a duty to act. And yet we are gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction. The international community is not ready or willing to tackle the big, dramatic challenges of our age. These crises threaten the very future of humanity and the fate of our planet. Crises like the war in Ukraine and the multiplication of conflicts around the globe. Crises like the climate emergency and biodiversity loss.”

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, addressing the General Assembly on September 20th.

“The territorial integrity of our homeland [claiming Ukraine], our independence and freedom will be ensured, I will emphasize this again, with all the means at our disposal… And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction… To those who allow themselves such statements about Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries… we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people… This is not a bluff.” 

Vladimir Putin announcing a general mobilization, in a recorded message on September 20th.

“A permanent member of the United Nations Security Council invaded its neighbor, attempted to erase a sovereign state from the map… Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets of the United Nations Charter.” 

 Joe Biden addressing the U.N. General Assembly on September 21st.

“A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment.” 

 Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a Remote Video to the U.N. General Assembly on the 21st.

There are some harsh realities facing the world by reason of Russian treachery. But Russia also produces oceans of natural gas and just about the same amount of oil as does Saudi Arabia. Europe, particularly Germany, has been slow to wean itself from dependence on Russian fossil fuel, particularly in northern areas that use Russian natural gas to stay warm during the winter. Yet, however you look at Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine, it has been an abysmal failure, killing at least 10,000 Russian soldiers (suggesting an overall casualty rate of 25,000).

Putin has been forced to rely on mercenaries recruited from Russian prisons (in exchange for release) and is now calling for a general mobilization of his regular reserves, expecting 300,000 fresh troops to plunge forward in his next assault against Ukraine. More than a few Russian men quickly fled the country. Claiming NATO troops are now in active assignments within Ukraine, Putin’s unsubtle nuclear saber-ratting is clearly escalating. Further, now that he has cleared much of eastern Ukraine of resident loyalists – either by death (often by torture), capture or expulsion, Putin is calling for a “referendum” on direct Russian annexation of captured eastern territory. Exactly how desperate is Putin?

Can Russia crank up a new offensive, rely on weapons resupply from North Korea (which denies its supply efforts) and Iran plus perhaps mercenary troops from Syria, to resume his offensive in Ukraine? Has the current lull, the Russian withdrawal from large sections of eastern Ukraine that have been retaken by Kiev, given Putin time to regroup with renewed vigor… or is he simply trying to save face and amplify a negotiated settlement, as Turkish President Recep Erdogan suggests based on his recent meeting with the Russian dictator.

Seven months into what President Biden has called a “brutal… reckless… and unwarranted” invasion of Ukraine, more “than 29,000 people have died and another 14 million have been displaced, according to Reuters’ latest figures. And though Russia has already taken over a fifth of Ukraine, a recent Ukrainian counterattack has pushed Russian troops back, allowing Ukraine to retake control of more than 2,300 square miles from Russia. Since the war began in February, the U.S. has sent more than $15 billion of military aid to Ukraine for equipment and weapons… Biden used Wednesday’s [9/21] speech to encourage allies at the U.N. to further arm Ukrainian forces, whose active military personnel of 500,000 soldiers is nearly one-third the size of Russia’s 1.35 million troops.” Marquise Francis, writing for the September 21st Yahoo!news.

But what exactly can the United Nations itself do against a clear military invasion of a member nation by a founding partner in the U.N. itself, Russia, one of those few member states with a permanent seat in and veto power over the governing Security Council? And while China is clearly concerned with Russia’s failing war against Ukraine, she is likely to join with a Russian veto in any attempt to secure approval for Security Council actions, military and otherwise, against Putin.

What can happen, even if Putin sues for peace, about the blatant war crimes committed under his personal military control by his generals, his troops… and even by Putin himself? Is there a way out of this mess with ethical dignity? Or is the United Nations relegated to an impotent platform for international speechmaking… with little in the way of tools to stop one of the most flagrant violations of its most fundamental principles? Is Zelensky’s plea for punishment in vain?

What if Putin crosses a purported red line and uses weapons of mass destruction against Ukraine, possibly even a tactical and thus limited nuclear strike? Is that really on the table? Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s deputy head of his Security Council, just made the threat of using nukes more explicit… “Referendums will be held, and the Donbas republics and other [Russian occupied] territories will be accepted into Russia,” Medvedev posted on Telegram (a major Russian social media site), warning on September 21st that Russia would be willing to use “strategic nuclear weapons” for the “protection” of those territories. This is also a clear acknowledgement that the “referendums” are just window dressing. Would NATO respond? As a unified defensive body?

NATO state leaders like Turkey’s Erdogan and Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán seem more like Putin admirers than severe critics of his outlandish behavior. Would the United States provide Ukraine with a genuine ability to retaliate? Perhaps supplying longer-range missiles to strike directly and deeply into Russia itself? How would Putin respond to that? While it is unlikely that Putin would risk a direct strike, nuclear or otherwise, against Europe itself, but with unbalanced autocratic leaders with powerful weapons awaiting a command to deploy… you never know. But the U.N…

I’m Peter Dekom, and even if you believe that a clear military end to Putin’s war is possible, even necessary and probable, exactly what would that path look like… and when could it happen?