China, So Much Stronger… but So Much Weaker in the End

“China’s President for life begins his third term with a ruthless grip on power that imperils the global economy.”

Time Magazine, Nov 15-16

“We have ensured that the party will never change its nature, its conviction or its character…

The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is now on an irreversible historical course.”

President Xi Jinping, October 16th from the Great Hall of the People.

The legacy of Xi Jinping is one of bringing China back to a more rigid, authoritarian nation, more committed to the state as the source of all meaningful power, no matter the consequences. On October 16th, the leadership of the People’s Republic began their annual congress in the Grand Hall of the People in Beijing. Everything inside was perfect. All attendees were in alignment with Xi’s guiding principles as he unabashedly sought to ratify his virtually total autocratic authority. Successfully! There were no protests, the agenda was clear. At least inside the gathering. As the Economist stated (October 13th), the direction for China was unswerving:

“The Communist Party has always been obsessed with control, but under President Xi Jinping that obsession has deepened. Such control-freakery has wider implications for China and the world. At home Mr Xi makes all the big calls, and a fierce machinery of repression enforces his will. Abroad, he seeks to fashion a global order more congenial for autocrats.

“Rightly, the West finds this alarming. No despotic regime in history has had resources to match modern China’s. This is why Western governments now treat Chinese innovation as a national-security issue. Many are boosting subsidies for industries such as chipmaking. Perhaps, though, they have it wrong. Mr Xi’s obsession with control may make the Communist Party stronger, but it also makes China weaker than it would otherwise be.” China has clamped down on the billionaires, those helming some of the biggest companies on earth. Some CEOs just disappeared, a few coming back later, severely humbled and perhaps separated from their companies. But President Xi, having changed the PRC constitution, was on his way to an unprecedented third term.

The new way forward was required and manifest fealty to the state, more particularly to Xi’s vision of the state. Hong Kong was crushed and marginalized, today a far cry from the promised retention of British freedoms and policies… well before 2047 when China would have otherwise had the treaty-granted right to change the system. Uighurs were still being arrested and placed in “reeducation camps,” crushing both their language and their culture under what many have described as concentration camp brutality.

Taiwan’s independence was and is a massive thorn in Xi’s side. China upped its claims to the island nation, now of increased strategic importance as the major sophisticated computer chipmaker on earth. Xi’s military is now modern (further modernizing) and still huge; China flashed its military strength, countering the US naval presence in the area, with a rolling litany of military aircraft and vessels flying or nearing low and close (sometimes over) Taiwan. At the annual Congress, Xi stressed that Beijing seeks peaceful reunification with Taiwan. However, he also emphasized that Beijing reserves the right to take any measures, including the use of force, and cautioned "foreign forces" against meddling.

Was an invasion imminent or was China held back by the failings of Russia in their effort to take Ukraine? China had just announced an accord, implemented directly between Putin and Xi before the Ukraine invasion, bringing a new “partnership” between these two autocratic nations. While China slightly distanced herself from Russia after the invasion, partially from global sentiments and partially, was this because Putin was obviously embarrassed by his military missteps? The massive negative global reaction?

But China itself was reeling from its own self-inflicted mistakes. Side by side with Russia, China was named the greatest threat to US national security. Their economy, even by the PRC’s own optimistic presentation, was slammed by COVID, but given the PRC’s “Zero COVID” policy, people were/are often confined to their homes, fired from companies when they cannot get to work, and prevented from moving around, often resulting in entire factories and shipping being totally shut down. The October 7th BBC.com: “[in the first week of October], rail services out of Xinjiang were suspended and many parts of the western region including its capital Urumqi were under lockdown as officials admitted they had failed to stop the virus spreading.

“China's stricter lockdowns have seen widespread reports of people unable to source food and medicine - but zero-Covid is affecting people's daily lives in myriad other ways too… Three years into the crisis, this is exhausting the population… On the outskirts of Beijing, workers on modest incomes live in an area called Yanjiao because the rent is cheaper. It is on the other side of a river, just inside neighbouring Hebei province… In normal times, this wouldn't matter but in the pandemic it can mean having to run the gauntlet of roadblocks to travel from where you live to where you work.

“In June this year, a cluster of cases saw people living in Yanjiao prevented from entering the capital, leading to clashes between police who were enforcing the border closure and employees trying to get to work… Since then, locals have been seen paddling across the water in inflatable craft to sneak into the city… At the time of writing, the border is open but everyone entering Beijing must show their IDs which are linked to health code apps… Every morning in Yanjiao, buses can be seen lined up, stopping before they cross over, so police can board and check that everyone has a clean bill of health… The delays have made the commuters of Yanjiao seem unreliable in the eyes of employers.” This “zero tolerance” has slammed the PRC economy big time. Any sign of COVID and the government shuts it down. Anywhere. Everywhere.

Well after the pandemic has fallen within manageable levels, as the US GDP was rising fast, “Signs of Chinese economic weakness dominate recent news reports. Youth unemployment was nearly 20% in July 2022. The purchasing managers index fell in the latest report, Home sales declined 40% from a year ago. GDP rose by just 0.4% over the past four quarters, compared to the national target of 5.5% growth.” Forbes, September 1st. This from a nation that routinely posted 7-9% GDP growth and today expects a modest (for China) 5.5% growth level.

But even as Party leaders met to rubberstamp Xi’s reelection, his hardline approach was clearly unpopular: “Frustration has been mounting in the capital before the congress… There has been an outpouring of anger online at strict security measures and the Covid restrictions put in place… Authorities have tightened access to the city, shutting out many travellers, returning residents and deliveries. Others had their movement restricted or were forced to quarantine.

“The images and footage of the protest that have been circulating showed two large banners unfurled on a bridge in Beijing's Haidian district. [Pictured above]… One read: ‘No Covid test, we want to eat. No restrictions, we want freedom. No lies, we want dignity. No Cultural Revolution, we want reform. No leaders, we want votes. By not being slaves, we can be citizens.’… The other called on residents to ‘go on strike at school and work, remove dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping.’” BBC.com, October 13th.

“While state media have remained silent, photos and videos of Thursday's [10/13] event have circulated widely online, prompting a swift crackdown by censors on social media platforms and the WeChat app used by most Chinese.” BBC.com, October 14th. Scholars believe that there is an unwritten covenant between China’s leaders and her people: you give us total political power, and we will give you economic prosperity and stability. That accord has been breached… so beyond popular expectations that PRC citizens are willing opening to protest. But there is no successor being groomed, no leaders rising. Right now, it’s all Xi… and for the foreseeable future.

I’m Peter Dekom, and while there is no reason to expect an overthrow of President Xi, the nascent stages of popular discord are clearly planted and growing in China; still, his official power has only increased.