The Great Texas-California Population Trade-Off

 

The Great Texas-California Population Trade-Off

California Gets the Young Well-Educated; Texas Gets those Seeking a Lower Cost of Living!

The press loves exceptional stories, tales of billionaires like Elon Musk or mere millionaires like Joe Rogen leaving California for lower taxes and right-wing values in Texas. But while Dems and Republicans like to attribute the population movement to political motivations, that only influences a very tiny proportion of those moving. “It’s the economy, stupid!” that is the major determinant. The fact remains that these migratory patterns are really so much more about income than politics. Or moving to be closer to family.

When you just look at the sheer numbers, you’d think Texas holds the winning hand. In reality, it’s about the kinds of people who are willing to travel so far to make a change. Simply, there are many more folks in the “I need a cheaper place to live” category than there are “I want to take my superior education to a place with more cutting-edge opportunities.” Texas boasts about the abundance of jobs, but unemployment is hardly a relevant factor anywhere these days. There are plenty of jobs in both states. But which category of migrant creates more value to the destination state? And there, California is the clear winner. Richard Parker, writing for the October 17th Los Angeles Times, has some real questions about this Texas/California population go-round:

“For at least 15 years, it has become cliché that Californians are moving to Texas, where jobs abound and the price of housing is far cheaper. But nearly unnoticed is the traffic that has long headed the other way, from the Lone Star State to the Golden State, where between 35,000 and 40,000 Texans move annually, regardless of economic conditions.

“Indeed, if Texas expats who arrived in California since 2000 had their own city, it would be close to the size of San Jose — about a million people. But the Texodus to California bears a sharp distinction: While Californians headed east are drawn by the promise of affordable suburban tract homes, many of the Texans bound in the other direction are recent college graduates seeking a fresh start to their young careers and lives. California continually attracts talents — and drains brains — from Texas.

“Ignore the Lone Star myth regularly promulgated by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott: There’s no evidence that Californians move to Texas because of its deep-red politics. Some may appreciate those politics; some may loathe them. But political ideology is hardly a reason for people to make the financial investment in moving halfway across the country. People move for family and money — often for a higher-paying job or a lower cost of living.

“The reality is that the big-population states are typically the largest sources of new migrants for other big-population states. It’s just math. South Dakota isn’t going to flood New York with new faces. California is still the most populous state, and Texas ranks second… In that context, California’s migration to Texas — though larger overall than the traffic in the other direction — ebbs and flows.

“The number of Californians decamping to Texas jumped from just over 60,000 in 2017 to more than 85,000 in 2018, according to U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by William Fulton at Rice University’s Kinder Institute. By contrast, the migration from Texas to California has been relatively steady over the past 15 years.

“Thus, the route between California and Texas is a story of exchange, not a one-way journey — and one shaped by income… Californians leaving the state tend to be working and middle class, looking for a cheaper place to live. Between 2010 and 2020, about 700,000 lower-income people left the Golden State, followed by more than 300,000 middle-income people, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. The Kinder analysis found that migration from California to Texas lags behind the former state’s trend in home prices by a year or two… Newcomers to California, on the other hand, tend to be more educated and to make more money.”

I must say I am amused at the efforts by Texas to lure folks to their state by guaranteeing electricity (see sign above)… when they have a clearly decayed power grid that took out most of the state in February of 2021, creating a killer crisis of unprecedented proportions. Californians do not question climate change and are the leaders in seeking fossil-free alternative power. And yes, California has earthquakes and wildfires, a question of dwindling water supplies, but Texas weather is hardly a big selling point. They too face water shortages and wildfires, but their history with hurricane and tornados cannot be a big selling point. Heat, heat and more heat is all over Texas. But in reality, it's not about weather or indigenous cooking. And its certainly is not driven by politics.

I’m Peter Dekom, and California is hardly the be-all and end-all in daily quality of life, but its sure beats Texas if you can afford to live here, a big “if”!