US Politics, Brazilian Style

 

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden in the US translates to Jair Bolsonaro vs Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) in Brazil. Lula may be a little farther to the left than Biden, but Bolsonaro and Trump are cut from the same cloth. However, Lula, former union leader and a very popular left-wing president, was convicted in 2017 on charges of money laundering and corruption in a controversial trial and sentenced to nine and a half years in prison. His conviction was tossed by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court after he spent a year and a half in prison. Current President Bolsonaro, who marginalized the COVID pandemic and fought efforts to stem climate change, is a right-wing former military officer.

Bolsonaro and Lula squared off in a run-off election on Sunday, October 30th. The aftermath promises to be particularly ugly. Lula prevailed by a razor-thin edge, with an immediate challenge from Bolsonaro supporters even as Bolsonaro’s chief of staff allowed the transition to begin. On the day after the election, however, Brazil's federal highway police reported 342 roadblocks across the country from a bevy of pro-Bolsonaro truck drivers. Another “stolen election”?! Stand back and stand by. Could this transition with a razor margin be peaceful? Hmm…

Writing for the October 29th Los Angeles Times, Ana Ionova and Kate Linthicum present the basics in that roiling run-off presidential election in this largest country in South America: “[In September], a man with a knife walked into a bar in northeastern Brazil and asked whether anybody planned to vote for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the country’s upcoming presidential election… ‘I will,’ a patron responded…. The man with the knife stabbed him to death…

“In the run-up to Sunday’s bitterly fought vote, in which Lula, a leftist who served as president from 2003 through 2010, faces right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, acts of politically motivated violence have become routine, with nearly every day bringing news of another election-related attack… For many Brazilians, it’s evidence of how this year’s campaign has divided the nation in profound new ways — and an ominous sign of what could come next… Many here are bracing for turmoil because Bolsonaro has repeatedly suggested that if he loses, he may not accept the results.

“Echoing former President Trump, whom he has described as his ‘idol,’ Bolsonaro has time and again questioned the integrity of Brazil’s voting system, sowing doubts among millions of his supporters about a pillar of Brazil’s democracy.

“The tough-talking president has said that if needed, he and his supporters ‘will go to war.’… Polls show that 3 out of 4 Bolsonaro supporters, after hearing their leader question the trustworthiness of the nation’s voting machines, have little or no trust in them… ‘The people won’t accept a loss,’ said Maria da Penha Fernandes, 65-year-old seamstress in Rio de Janeiro. ‘There will be a revolt.’

“Polls had predicted that Bolsonaro would draw as little 33% in the first round of voting on Oct. 2. But he ended up with 43% to Lula’s 48%, with other candidates splitting the rest… That has fueled his supporters’ doubts about current polls, which show Lula likely to win Sunday’s runoff election. [He did as noted above.] Insisting polling operations are part of a broader conspiracy to rig the vote, Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress recently introduced legislation that would make it a crime to produce a poll that fails to accurately predict results.

“Among Brazil’s left, there are growing fears that Bolsonaro is paving the way for a coup or an insurrection modeled on the storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters last year… A former army officer who has praised Brazil’s two-decade military dictatorship that ended in 1985, Bolsonaro has expanded the power of the armed forces during his four years in office, with an estimated 6,000 soldiers now serving in his administration… Private weapon ownership has proliferated since Bolsonaro delivered on a key campaign promise to loosen gun control laws.”

What now? Sound familiar? Civil war in Brazil? How about here? Political violence in the United States has exploded since 2016, when for example, our Capitol Police investigated 902 threats against members of Congress. But in the first year of the Trump administration, those threats increased to 3,939. The rhetoric of finding racial or ethnic groups to blame and demean, essential ingredients in most such political threats and accompanying violence, became increasingly normalized here. By 2021, those congressional threats rose to 9,600 – targeting congress-people on both sides of the aisle.

But as Republican members Congress, once huddled in the Capitol chambers fearing the raging 1/6/21 Capital attackers, the Republican National Committee has since hailed the January 6th insurrectionists as “ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.” The violence was now officially sanctified. Not that Republicans are free from violent attacks. In June of 2017, for example, GOP House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and three other people were wounded when a gunman opened fire on members of the Republican congressional baseball team as they were practicing on a field in Alexandria, Virginia.

But the majority of the attacks and threats are coming from MAGA supporters, with seeming encouragement from the former President himself. The rise of Republican Christian nationalism, arguing against an interpretation of the First Amendment as separating church and state, coupled with the mistaken belief that our Founding Fathers created the Second Amendment so that outraged citizens could overthrow elected officials with whom they disagreed on basic principles, seems to have escalated political beliefs increasingly to mirror religious fervor. A proliferation of AR-15-like assault weapons (estimated at 20 million in civilian hands) and mostly right-wing militia are adding gasoline for a pending fire. Political violence is the new normal.

Even without such guns, attacks on politicians and election officials… and their families… can be brutal. Take for example the attempted murder (by hammer) of a Trump supporter seeking to kill Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco home… but finding only her husband, Paul, smashed his skull instead.

The alleged perpetrator, 42-year-old David DePape, was an avid anti-Semitic right-wing, conspiracy theory blogger. “An Aug. 24 entry titled ‘Q,’ displayed a scatological collection of memes that included photos of the deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and made reference to QAnon, the baseless pro-Trump conspiracy theory that espouses the belief that the country is run by a deep state cabal of child sex traffickers, satanic pedophiles and baby-eating cannibals. In other posts, the writer said Jews helped finance Hitler's political rise in Germany and suggested an antisemitic plot was involved in Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine.

“‘The more Ukrainians die NEEDLESSLY the cheaper the land will be for Jews to buy up,’ the post said… In a Sept. 27 post, the writer said any journalists who denied Trump's false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election ‘should be dragged straight out into the street and shot.’” Associated Press, October 28th.

Political violence requires that the perpetrators demonize their opponents such that there is no wrong committed in killing or harming them. The attackers must believe that committing violent acts against ‘political others” is a necessary contribution to “higher values and the greater good.” Personal risks of being arrested or even shot by their victims or “corrupt law enforcement” that protects them are seen as noble sacrifices. But this is where civil wars start… and they just might not look like the blue and grey formal armies of our own Civil War. Instead: Scattered and increasing violence, lines being drawn with assassination and insurrection getting formal political support. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and as violent perpetrators call themselves “patriots” and “revolutionary war heroes,” whether it’s in Brazil or the United States, we all need to understand what is really at stake… democracy itself.