But Are Either Trump or DeSantis Truly Electable? Who Cares?!

But Are Either Trump or DeSantis Truly Electable? Who Cares?!

“I am your retribution” vs “Stop woke”

There is a very interesting contrast between the new MAGA-driven Republican Party and the awkward progressive/moderate coalition that forms the contemporary Democratic Party. Dems are focusing on electability as the most relevant quality for a presidential candidate; the GOP remains committed to personality, doctrine and policy without much regard to electability. It doesn’t take much to understand why the Republican Party has moved so far into that quagmire. 

First, the primary driver of GOP values has veered heavily in the direction of White Christian nationalism. The focus on fundamental Christianity, supported by a rising chorus of Republican evangelicals who do not believe in the separation of church and state, suggests that the passion for a candidate should be viewed as a religious commitment. See my February 25th What Exactly Does Being a Republican Mean Today? blog. Dems, by contrast, view governance from a secular perspective.

Second, that passionate faith-driven motivation by a very large GOP segment – the “base” – is a constituency that Republicans have come to believe is most essential. This is also the same constituency that believes fiercely in remarkably unrestricted gun ownership, even to the point of accepting that semiautomatic military grade weapons are appropriate for civilians. As polls have repeatedly illustrated, this constituency is also the most like to accept some level of violence in support of their political and religious beliefs. See my January 31st Using Violence or the Threat of Violence to Force Political Change blog for supporting details. 

Which brings me back to the issue of electability. Writing for the March 6th Los Angeles Times, David Lauter adds: “The belief that Biden was the most electable candidate was key to his winning the Democratic nomination in 2020. This year, Republicans seeking to undermine Trump’s chances of getting a rematch have also leaned on electability — telling voters that even if they like the former president, they should not renominate a person whom they blame for losses in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

“Electability can be a powerful argument, overriding other criteria, such as agreement on ideology. A Washington Post/ABC News poll in February 2020, for example, showed that Democrats, 58% to 38%, preferred a candidate who was electable to one who agreed with them on big issues.

“But claims about electability may not have the same effect in a Republican primary, recent research indicates. And if that’s the case, Trump might have a clearer shot at the nomination than his rivals hope… ‘Democrats and Republicans have different calculations about electability,’ said Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver. Last month, Masket surveyed Democratic and GOP county-level party chairs, asking whether they thought it was more important when recruiting candidates to find people who agree with much of what the party believes or to find those who can win in November.

“Democratic party chairs were divided closely on that question, Masket found. Republicans, by contrast, heavily favored candidates who share the party’s views… When asked specifically about presidential candidates, the party chairs showed a similar pattern: Democrats overwhelmingly favored finding a presidential nominee they thought could win in November. Republicans narrowly preferred a candidate with whom they agree on major issues… The Democratic hyperfocus on electability is a relatively recent phenomenon.

“In 2008, Democratic voters turned their backs on then-Sen. Hillary Clinton in favor of Sen. Barack Obama, despite Clinton having more of the experience in government and politics that usually argues in favor of electability… For many years, in fact, a stereotype of the major parties held that Republicans were by far more pragmatic: ‘Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line,’ the saying went.” Both Trump and DeSantis are clearly catering to fundamental evangelical religious biases, but DeSantis seems to be casting himself as “Trump without the personality of personal insults.” But are doctrinaire religious zealots so confident because of their power at the ballot box, however that can be manipulated, or because “guns” are their backup plan?

If you heard Trump’s presentation before less than a full auditorium at the early March CPAC conference, you heard the same litany of falsehoods, insults and conspiracy theories that marked his entire post-2015 political life. What you may have missed is that DeSantis’ progress at the polls may have stalled, and Trump’s numbers are rising. Can the candidate who yells the most rise to the fore? Regardless of the truth or the underlying policies? That just might be more relevant than most of us are willing to admit. 

Indeed, Trump’s well-funded political chest combined with experienced internet savvy workers is at it again, as David Klepper, writing for the March 6th Associated Press notes: “Over the past 11 months, someone created thousands of fake, automated Twitter accounts — perhaps hundreds of thousands of them — to offer a stream of praise for Donald Trump… Besides posting adoring words about the former president, the fake accounts ridiculed Trump's critics from both parties and attacked Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador who is challenging her onetime boss for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination… When it came to Ron DeSantis, the bots aggressively suggested that the Florida governor couldn't beat Trump, but would be a great running mate…

”The sprawling bot network was uncovered by researchers at Cyabra, an Israeli tech firm that shared its findings with The Associated Press. While the identity of those behind the network of fake accounts is unknown, Cyabra's analysts determined that it was likely created within the U.S.” Foreign influencers? Working with the Trump campaign? It is going to get a lot nastier fast.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as faith-“mandated” policies rise in political importance, that religious passion is likely to exacerbate the polarized extreme that represents America today.