The Left is Scaring More People of Color

 

If current polls are any measure, Joe Biden has an age/mental acuity problem that does not plague even not-so-young Donald Trump. As reported on MSNBC on May 8th, only 32% of voters believe that age is not a Biden issue… but the rest do. The majority believe Biden will not be sharp enough to function as president in 2024 and beyond; his VP, Kamala Harris, is even more unpopular. In a head-to-head match-up, Donald “under indictment” Trump handily defeats Joe Biden. OK, we know we are well over a year away from that election, and a lot can change, but…

While it is obvious that the GOP has severely alienated a large segment of both the Y and Z generations, red state efforts to limit college students from being able to vote and the general generational frustration with politics in general are taking their toll. That rising Y/Z power will probably evidence itself more in the future, but the immediate potential is questionable. To make matters so much worse for Mr Biden and too many Dems, US Census data shows erosion of support for Democrats among Black, Latino and Asian voters, once assumed to be Democrats.

There’s no question that voters of color can turn a close election, but where issues resonate more with one group than another – clearly a reality on the abortion issue among women, particularly younger women – there can be a bigger gender differential. Though the movement was relatively small, a rising number of of Black and Latino male voters who backed Donald Trump and MAGA vectors were drawn by a combination of admiration for Trump’s financial success and his “manly” (machismo?) rough leadership quality. Woke equaled weak, in their minds. That trend might still be rising.

Undoubtedly, the turnout of mid-term voters – 46% of eligible voters – were heavily influenced by the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v Wade, but peeling back the ethnic and racial composition tells the Democrats that they have a short-term problem: they cannot simply count on Black, Latino and Asian voters for support, particularly among men. While the turnout for the 2024 election is expected to be higher, fears that the decline of minority support for the Democrats looms large.

“In 2022, turnout among Black voters dropped by about 10 percentage points, falling to 42%, compared with almost 52% four years earlier. Latino turnout dropped, as well, by about 5 percentage points, as did turnout among Asian voters. Turnout among white voters dropped by only a bit over 1 point.

“Some decline from 2018 was probably inevitable — turnout that year was the highest in a century. But the steeper declines among communities of color meant that the 2022 electorate was whiter and older than those who voted in 2018. That marked the first time since 1990 that the U.S. electorate was whiter than in the previous election cycle, although the 2022 electorate remained more diverse than that of 2014 or any prior elections.

“Unlike many election years, in which turnout patterns are very similar from one state to the next, voting in 2022 showed a notable split…. In many swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, where abortion rights were the dominant voting issue, turnout was fairly high, including among younger voters, and Democrats made significant gains… In other states, including heavily Democratic ones such as New York and California, in which voters did not feel a significant threat to abortion rights, turnout was sharply down from 2018, especially among younger voters and voters of color…

“In Black communities, those two needs coincide, said Jermaine House, senior communications director at HIT Strategies, a Washington-based firm that specializes in reaching minority and younger voters… ‘Democrats have a real weakness with young Black voters, and that’s a problem they have to solve,’ House said. The problem is especially acute among younger Black men, who are ‘more open to Republicans targeting them with messages on the economy and on masculinity,’ he added.

“Part of the problem involves the objective conditions of young people’s lives, House said… ‘They look around, and they don’t think their lives and their material conditions have changed’ despite Democratic policy successes that probably will affect their communities, he said. But that problem is worsened by Democratic messages — and often messengers — who fall flat with younger voters of color, he said… [As for those younger voters in general], ‘They don’t see the [Democratic] party as standing with them,’ House said. ‘Racial justice issues drive younger voters regardless of race,’ he added. They see ‘the Democratic Party as not ready to deliver that.’” David Lauter, Los Angeles Times, May 8th. Many say that the reelection of Joe Biden and the narrower than expected Democratic House loses, were directly attributed to the turnout of Black women.

I’m Peter Dekom, and whatever else is said and done, the Democratic Party has a lot to do to reengage voters they once counted on and may have lost… and Joe Biden has a very steep hill to climb.