Can the Rest of the World Trust the United States Anymore?

In New Zealand, people “are watching the Trump circus with the same sense of horror and fascination that marked his last days in office” in early 2021 when his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol.

David Capie, professor of international relations at Victoria University of Wellington

It’s a huge issue that looms behind the recent indictment and arrest of ex-president Donald Trump in connection with his treatment of highly classified documents, many of which reveal critical information about our own and our enemies’ military and strategic readiness for conflict. Just revealing a piece of information naming a foreign official as a casual source of the information allows savvy foreign intelligence agents to reverse-program to discover which US agents may have access to such individual and such inside information. And which US agents need to be arrested and executed. Revealing military shortages and failures most definitely gives comfort to our enemies… and sows distrust by our allies in sharing their intelligence with the US.

Both Russia and China are using social media to underscore “widespread support” for Donald Trump, who campaigned vigorously in 2016 that our classified data must be protected at all costs. Both these rogue nations believe that a GOP President would slash support for Ukraine – guess what that message would mean to these two superpowers hell-bent on territorial expansion – and pull the US out of international treaties offering a US military umbrella to smaller nations (Korea, Japan, Poland, the Baltic States, etc.) against invasion or assault from these two countries. It would be as if, in WWII, the US told Hitler that retaining control of most of Europe would have been acceptable to us. As any student of history knows, appeasement may delay the inevitable, but autocrats are usually emboldened when they are appeased.

However, our traditional allies also know that decrying these unacceptable security breaches might also come back to haunt them. Given that both Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are openly telling the world that their election to the highest office in the land would enable them to wreak “retribution” against those who opposed or criticized them after the 2020 election. As part of that reality is the knowledge that foreign powers, one way or another, would have to work with whichever regime is elected in 2024. Behind the scenes, it is no secret that a DeSantis or Trump presidency in 2024 would be an unthinkable gift to rogue autocrats, but rather than come out and say so, particularly given the anti-globalist mantra of the MAGA GOP, our allies are collectively biting their tongues and staying silent.

Writing for the June 15th Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, Raf Casert opines: “As Trump becomes the first former U.S. president to face federal charges that could put him in prison, many Europeans are watching the case closely. But hardly a single world leader has said a thing recently about the man leading the race for the Republican nomination.

“NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg , named 2019 Diplomat of the Year by Foreign Policy Magazine for helping the alliance navigate an ‘uncertain future’ during the Trump years, was recently asked about the Republican’s campaign for a second term — and quickly changed the topic to the TV series ‘The Crown.’

“It’s not that the global public isn’t interested. The former president’s court appearance grabbed headlines and figured prominently on newscasts in much of Europe… Few European leaders would welcome Trump’s reelection. His climate, trade and security policies clashed with European interests and sensibilities, and many fear he would withdraw robust U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

“‘The whole world has the same concern. We hope that the U.S. election restores a bit of rationality,’ said José Pio Borges, president of the Brazilian Center for International Relations think tank. ‘Not that we have great appreciation for Biden, but there is no comparison.’… In other distant parts of the world, like China and India, the trial passed by with much less notice.

“But a minority of world leaders is openly cheering for Trump to make a comeback. Hungarian Prime Minister [and elected autocrat,] Viktor Orban backed him in 2016, and has said the Ukraine war wouldn’t be happening if Trump were president. In a speech last month, Orban implored: ‘Come back, Mr. President! Make America great again, and bring us peace!’

“The nature of the charges against Trump matter to allied leaders. Prosecutors allege he was reckless with classified information, including secrets shared by or about intelligence partners… ‘Were Donald Trump to be elected president, then absolutely, there will be certain governments that are going to be concerned,’ said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House. She said the current case was ‘very clear evidence ... of his willingness to play fast and loose with secret and top-secret documents.’

“With allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and as far away as Australia and New Zealand, the United States has a dense network of military security cooperation deals that require secrecy, due diligence and trust in exchanging sensitive information.

“The indictment alleges that Trump intentionally retained hundreds of classified documents after leaving office in January 2021, and then stored them in cardboard boxes in locations including a bathroom, a ballroom and a bedroom at his Florida estate. The documents contained information on nuclear programs, defense and weapons capabilities of the U.S. and foreign governments, and a Pentagon ‘attack plan,’ prosecutors wrote.”

As Russia eyes former Soviet republics for its next wave of annexation, and China openly touts it willingness to use force to take Taiwan, imagine how comforting this lapse in US intelligence control looks to those depending on American treaty support to protect their sovereignty. And if you were the battlefield commander of those Chinese or Russian forces, how magnificent it would be if you had access to internal reportions on what data the US has against you and what weaknesses the US sees within itself.

I’m Peter Dekom, and call me old fashioned but giving aid and comfort to our enemies, no matter the American source, has never been viewed as patriotic and in the best interests of our nation… (until now?).