Sooner or Later, Autocrats Must Kill Free Elections

   Turkish police raid opposition media outlet

“There is widespread suspicion in a significant part of society that [Turkey’s] elections will be rigged.”

Adem Sozuer of Istanbul University’s law faculty. Sound familiar?

As Putin arrests and/or arranges for the untimely demise of anyone who has the guts even to think about running against him, as Russian government secret police clamp down on any opposition – grassroots or in any form of press or social media – as China’s Xi removes dissenting members of his Politburo… who just disappear… we see what happens in rather transparent dictatorships. But even autocrats and autocrat wannabes who were duly elected under purportedly democratic governments – and yes, that happens (we call it “populism” or “nationalism”) – often run into a wall of term limits (most just change the “constitution” to remove them) or their own rising unpopularity. It has happened within NATO and European Union states – like Hungary or Turkey, where autocrats are very much in charge, where a free press has long since been stifled and dissidents found guilty of all sorts of manufactured crimes.

In nations with fractured election checks and balances, many believe that elections are easily fixed. Even as international election observers note flagrant discrepancies, Turkey continues to employ the same questionable control over the election process. For nations with fragile election checks and balances – including the United States and Brazil – those losing elections for gubernatorial and national top jobs today routinely fabricate powerful myths of stolen elections and a deep state repressing the desired but mythical results. Which their hordes of followers support.

So far, the United States – which as the prestigious The Economist says is not a representational democracy (you only have to look at California and Wyoming, the most and least populous states, who have exactly the same two US Senators, for proof) – has weathered the January 6, 2021/stolen election storm. But with amplified gerrymandering, increasing voter exclusion laws and a continued litany of unchecked conspiracy theories holding vast followers in rapt attraction, how close are we to crossing over into a full-fledged autocracy? Accusations of election fraud in the US and Brazil proved false. But in some “free election” countries, you really need to take another look. Could we be the next Turkey?

With media firmly under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s control, any opposition candidate has a clear visibility problem. “As Turkey heads toward presidential and parliamentary elections this weekend that are shaping up to be the strongest challenge to … Erdogan in his 20 years as leader, complaints are growing about the fairness of the vote… Turkey’s opposition has long said the country’s elections take place on an uneven playing field, accusations often backed up by international observers.

“Media coverage stands out as the most obvious example of how Erdogan enjoys an advantage over his opponents, but factors such as the use of state resources while campaigning and the questionable interpretation of electoral law also feature… Some 90% of Turkey’s media are in the hands of the government or its backers, according to Reporters Without Borders, ensuring overwhelming airtime for the president. Only a few opposition newspapers remain in print, most having transitioned to online-only editions.

“During April, Erdogan received nearly 33 hours of airtime on the main state-run TV station, according to opposition members of the broadcasting watchdog. His presidential opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, received 32 minutes… The main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, last month launched legal action against broadcaster TRT for failing to screen its campaign video… ‘Unfortunately, the Turkish Radio and Television Corp. has moved away from being an impartial and objective institution and has turned into the Tayyip Radio and Television Corp.,’ CHP lawmaker Tuncay Ozkan said.

“The remaining independent media also face increasing restrictions. Last month, broadcasting authority RTUK fined independent channels Fox News, Halk TV and TELE1 over news and commentary deemed a breach of regulations. Ilhan Tasci, an opposition-appointed RTUK member, said that in all three cases the stations had been accused of criticizing or questioning ruling-party actions.

“In a statement following the last presidential and general elections in 2018, observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe noted that Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, enjoyed ‘an undue advantage, including in excessive coverage by government-affiliated public and private media outlets.’…

“The government’s reach has also been extended over social media, where many opposition voices have retreated… A ‘disinformation’ law introduced in October allows a jail sentence of up to three years for spreading false information ‘with the sole aim of creating anxiety, fear or panic among the public.’… Sinan Aygul, the only journalist to be prosecuted under the new law, was handed a 10-month jail term in February. He is free while appealing the case… ‘The real aim is to silence all dissident voices in society,’ said Aygul, chair of the journalists association in Bitlis, southeastern Turkey. It is ‘a law that targets anyone who expresses an opinion. It targets not only individuals but also media organs,’ he said…

“In 2018, a nationwide state of emergency following a 2016 coup attempt remained in place until shortly before the election, which the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said restricted the media and freedoms of assembly and expression.

“Erdogan has stepped up his public appearances, which are closely followed by most TV channels, and uses these official duties to attack his rivals. Attending a ceremony on the Friday of Eid al-Fitr last month to mark renovations to Istanbul’s Blue Mosque, he accused the opposition of ‘working with terrorist groups.’” Andrew Wilks writing for the May 9th Associated Press. The United States is nowhere near that pressive state, but with extreme polarization, 400 million firearms in civilian hands, party leaders whipping up anger through conspiracy theories and a lot of people believing the we need a righteous culling based upon a culture war, don’t assume we are immune because we have a constitutional Bill of Rights.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I am not sure how far Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ vision for his state and then for the entire country departs from Erdogan’s Turkey.