Not Since Generalissimo Francisco Franco

In the first half of the 20th century, Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini rose to power and fought in WWII. Franco fought and prevailed in the earlier Spanish Civil War but sidestepped involvement in WWII but continued as Spain’s dictator until his death in 1975, when the Spanish monarchy pushed the country into the modern democracy that continues to this day. But in recent years, even after the fall of the Soviet Union and the satellite states, we’ve seen the rise of elected autocrats, like Hungary’s Viktor Mihály Orbán, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or Poland’s Andrzej Sebastian Duda in NATO European democracies. France, Italy, Finland, Sweden, and the Netherlands are dealing with the rise of the populist right with rightwing governments. Germany’s Alternative for Germany populists are rising as well. Immigration continues to be the major issue. As of July 23rd, Spain seemed to be heading in that direction as well.

When the governing Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party (in coalition with the far left Unidas Podemos (“United We Can”) Party got taken to the cleaners in recent regional and local elections this past May, Socialist PM Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was forced to call new elections. Spain could indeed march back to that rightwing autocratic mode not seen since Franco’s death in 1975. As reported by Ciarán Giles on July 23rd of the Associated Press: “The center-right Popular Party emerged from the May 28 elections with the most votes. Polls for the general election have consistently put the PP in first place — but [it needed] support from the far-right Vox party to form a government.”

Before we become too judgmental, we’ve seen that perilous swing towards autocracy from our ally Israel, as PM Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to override the checks and balances provided by the judiciary… or as GOP presidential candidate frontrunner, Donald Trump, pledges to be a president of “retribution,” taking over direct control of the Department of Justice and probably Homeland Security while eliminating the Department of Education, the Environmental Protection Agency and a few more administrative bodies.

There is both fear and impatience all over the earth as scientists (labeled by many as “elitists”) provide dire warnings of climate change acceleration, with no simple solutions and some very expensive long-term commitments. Autocrats embrace conspiracy theories that either deny or marginalize the inevitable challenges, even as climatic devastation explodes around us. The pandemic created parallel fears. Screw the “elitists” is that autocratic cry!

Further, even as the United States seems to have tamed inflation and generated what seems like a stable and prosperous economy, Europe is not faring well. The Ukraine War has slammed Europe harder, in terms of fuel and food prices. In a world where air conditioning is hardly as ubiquitous as it is here in the United States, climate change has leveled untenable European temperatures and uncontrolled flooding, washing away towns, farms and flooding even major cities. As with the United States, immigrants are shouldering blame wherever it can be alleged.

All over the world, people are feeling insecure about their future. Rightwing autocracies always promise strong and decisive leadership to end the crises, assign segments of society to blame… and always make things worse. The entire raison d'être for the anti-democracy MAGA movement is this anxiety about the changing world. Now Spain joins this rightwing fray. “The Popular Party and Vox have agreed to govern together in some 140 cities and towns since May, as well as to add two more regions to the one where they already co-govern. Sen. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP’s leader, has not ruled out a partnership at the national level.

“Led by former PP member Santiago Abascal [pictured above], 47, Vox opposes abortion rights, denies climate change and rejects the need for government to combat gender violence… Nagore Calvo Mendizabal, a senior lecturer in Spanish and European politics and society at King’s College London, said the likelihood of Vox entering the government frames Sunday’s parliamentary election ‘in terms of the future of democracy in Spain as being what is at stake.’…

“Vox’s manifesto is virtually a ‘copy-and-paste of the tenets of the Franco regime,’ Calvo said. It promises, for example, a return to a highly centralized government by scrapping the 17 regions that came into being after Franco’s death.

“Beyond Spain, a PP-Vox government would mean another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies, Calvo said.

“Spain took over the EU’s rotating presidency July 1. Sánchez had hoped to use the six-month term to showcase the advances his government had made before a national election originally scheduled for December.

“Voter concerns over immigration and costs of living, as well as frustration with the EU’s perceived interference in national affairs, often have been cited to explain increases in right-wing support in other countries.” As major democracies face population contractions, the availability of arable land and habitable cities is contracting. Hence the pressure towards mass migration. Likewise, strongmen and narco-cartels are popping up in too many regions, promulgating civil wars and regional instability. The instability feeds on itself, and people are not comfortable with complex solutions… even if they are the only truth. Immigration factors in every rightwing rise.

Well, welcome to the new rising European mess. While Spain’s rightwing PP, even with Vox, did not lose the election, actually generating the most seats won, they fell short of a parliamentary majority. Now, the conservatives and the incumbent Socialists will both separately try to form coalitions that can rule. The only winner was instability.

I’m Peter Dekom, and since denial and marginalization are the current global placebos, we can expect an even great shift to rightwing autocracy… even though those who study history know it will never, never work… and will ultimately make terrible into horrible.