Heat

 

“Unless something dramatic happens in late winter, which I’m not expecting, 

this will be the lowest year ever recorded for sea ice.”

Oscar Schofield, chair of the Marine Science Program at Rutgers University

Strange to speak of sea ice contraction under the above title, but they are crucially related indicators. “The decline [in sea ice] is so extreme that researchers have been calling it a ‘five-sigma event,’ basically referring to how many standard deviations it is beyond the mean: ‘It’s like, okay, we’re five times outside of deviations,’ Schofield says, ‘so it’s an extreme event.’” Fast Company.com, July 27th. But we are living in a world of escalating and intensifying climate change acerated extreme events. The latest involves record-breaking heat waves.

As of this writing Phoenix has eclipsed the American records being a major city with over a month of consecutive 110 degrees (Fahrenheit) temperatures. The nights don’t exactly cool off either, never dipping below the mid-90s. And remember, these temperatures are measured in the shade and not direct sunlight. But it’s not just the air that is scalding. In Southern Florida, coastal water temperatures began hitting the low 90-degrees mark in early July, rising in some key areas to over 100 degrees in the same areas by the end of the month. The impact on sea life, especially the remaining coral reefs, is devastating. Unprecedented.

People are dying by the tens of thousands every month from rising temperature. Even in developed areas, like coastal Washington State and vast portions of Europe, 100-degree marks are no longer abnormal, and air conditioning, which used to be a wasted option for the super-rich, is now becoming essential. Yet most of the world outside of the developed nations has vast swaths of people who will never be able to afford air conditioning. Even as the demand on global power grids rises, this issue can be seriously mitigated with solar and wind power… even though such electrical power generating systems are also not cheap. Again, impoverished people lose.

“June was the hottest month on record for the planet. July will likely follow [it did]: July 3 was the hottest day ever recorded, until July 4 broke the record a day later—followed by a tie on July 5 and another new record on July 6. In the U.S., millions of Americans are currently under heat alerts. Phoenix has been 110 degrees Fahrenheit—or hotter—for nearly a month. Sanbao, China, reached a record high of 52.2 degrees Celsius (126 Fahrenheit). In Iran, the heat index hit 66.7 degrees Celsius (152 Fahrenheit), near the limits of human survival. This isn’t the new normal—as climate change progresses, the world will get even hotter…

“A growing number of cities and counties are creating new positions for ‘chief heat officers,’ recognizing that the growing risk of extreme heat means that cities need a new focus on resilience. The first CHO, Jane Gilbert, was appointed in Miami-Dade County in 2021, coordinating efforts like tree planting, adding cool roofs and pavements, and retrofitting low-income housing so it takes less energy to cool. The county recently took steps toward a new ordinance that would help protect outdoor workers with frequent breaks and access to water when the heat index hits 90 degrees Fahrenheit.” Adele Peters for July 25th FastCompany.com. City planners and architects are rethinking how to use trees for shade, to construct roadways and buildings to reduce heat retention, to find ways to bring cooler air into buildings even on hot days and how to design structures to dissipate and deflect heat. Not remotely enough.

Even as Texas Governor Greg Abbott recently signed a bill that removed the mandate to accord water breaks to workers exposed to high levels of heat, Texas temperatures were still soaring. Fortunately, even as the Governor proselytizes against alterative energy and fosters increased reliance on oil and gas, the private sector in Texas has upped their use of solar and wind power significantly enough that the “deferred maintenance” standalone power grid has been able to weather the increased demand for electricity to power the needed air conditioning. All of these are examinations of how high temperatures impact specific regions, but there is a much more ominous reality that could impact a very large part of the earth, including the United States, beginning within the next two to three years.

According to a researched article by Damian Carrington for the July 25th The Guardian (UK), “The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.

“Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years owing to global heating and researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021… The new analysis estimates a timescale for the collapse of between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced. Evidence from past collapses indicates changes of temperature of 10C in a few decades, although these occurred during ice ages.

“Other scientists said the assumptions about how a tipping point would play out and uncertainties in the underlying data are too large for a reliable estimate of the timing of the tipping point. But all said the prospect of an Amoc collapse was extremely concerning and should spur rapid cuts in carbon emissions.

“Amoc carries warm ocean water northwards towards the pole where it cools and sinks, driving the Atlantic’s currents. But an influx of fresh water from the accelerating melting of Greenland’s ice cap and other sources is increasingly smothering the currents.

“A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.”

But as wildfires rage in Canada (see above smoke map), which make air unbreathable in the northern regions of the American Midwest and points eastward, we are facing the horrors of climate change with increasing devastation and accelerating frequency. Despite all the irrefutable data, the diehard ultra-right wing Freedom Caucus in the GOP-controlled House of Representatives has vowed to block any new budget proposals that do not repeal all the climate change allocations recently enacted (provisions that support alternative energy and cut reliance on fossil fuels) under Biden-sponsored legislation. Seriously! It’s not a hoax!

I’m Peter Dekom, and in the end, nature really does not care if we kill ourselves or destroy the planet; she started with nothing and can do it over again if we are so stupid as continue to ignore the overwhelmingly obvious.