Looking Ahead, Who is Likely the Most Dangerous Man on Earth?

 

Any one of the above, even the Ayatollah, is within actual or proximate control of nuclear weapons. All of them have threatened the United States or at least the American system of government. Most of the above, and whole lot of others around the world, would point the finger at whomever is elected President of the United States. But if we eliminate nations those with a clear history of hostility toward the United States, if we simply polled a close American ally over who that global nemesis would be, that might provide a more neutral view of the imminently dangerous man (notice, I did not include women in that remark for obvious reasons… mostly, there are not a whole lot of female national leaders).

So it was of extreme interest that, notwithstanding the wars between Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine, the brinksmanship practices by Chinese naval and air force in controlling regional airspace and seas and North Korea’s constant testing of nuclear assets, the prestigious British periodical, The Economist (November 16th), was anything but subtle, noting as a headline that “Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024… What his victory in America’s election would mean…

“A shadow looms over the world. In this week’s edition we publish The World Ahead 2024, our 38th annual predictive guide to the coming year, and in all that time no single person has ever eclipsed our analysis as much as Donald Trump eclipses 2024. That a Trump victory next November is a coin-toss probability is beginning to sink in.

“Mr Trump dominates the Republican primary. Several polls have him ahead of President Joe Biden in swing states. In one, for the New York Times, 59% of voters trusted him on the economy, compared with just 37% for Mr Biden. In the primaries, at least, civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions have only strengthened Mr Trump. For decades Democrats have relied on support among black and Hispanic voters, but a meaningful number are abandoning the party. In the next 12 months a stumble by either candidate could determine the race—and thus upend the world.

“This is a perilous moment for a man like Mr Trump to be back knocking on the door of the Oval Office. Democracy is in trouble at home. Mr Trump’s claim to have won the election in 2020 was more than a lie: it was a cynical bet that he could manipulate and intimidate his compatriots, and it has worked. America also faces growing hostility abroad, challenged by Russia in Ukraine, by Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East and by China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. Those three countries loosely co-ordinate their efforts and share a vision of a new international order in which might is right and autocrats are secure.

“Because maga Republicans have been planning his second term for months, Trump 2 would be more organised than Trump 1. True believers would occupy the most important positions. Mr Trump would be unbound in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism and theatrically extravagant deals. No wonder the prospect of a second Trump term fills the world’s parliaments and boardrooms with despair. But despair is not a plan. It is past time to impose order on anxiety.

“The greatest threat Mr Trump poses is to his own country. Having won back power because of his election-denial in 2020, he would surely be affirmed in his gut feeling that only losers allow themselves to be bound by the norms, customs and self-sacrifice that make a nation. In pursuing his enemies, Mr Trump will wage war on any institution that stands in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice.

“Yet a Trump victory next year would also have a profound effect abroad. China and its friends would rejoice over the evidence that American democracy is dysfunctional. If Mr Trump trampled due process and civil rights in the United States, his diplomats could not proclaim them abroad. The global south would be confirmed in its suspicion that American appeals to do what is right are really just an exercise in hypocrisy. America would become just another big power.

“Mr Trump’s protectionist instincts would be unbound, too. In his first term the economy thrived despite his China tariffs. His plans for a second term would be more damaging. He and his lieutenants are contemplating a universal 10% levy on imports, more than three times the level today. Even if the Senate reins him in, protectionism justified by an expansive view of national security would increase prices for Americans. Mr Trump also fired up the economy in his first term by cutting taxes and handing out covid-19 payments. This time, America is running budget deficits on a scale only seen in war and the cost of servicing debts is higher. Tax cuts would feed inflation, not growth.” Further, Trump’s power continues to amplify with members of the GOP-controlled House. In mid-November, Moody’s, a leading risk assessment agency, lowered the U.S. government’s credit ratings outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing congressional polarization.

Biden’s and the Dem’s accomplishments – controlling inflation, investing in infrastructure and climate-positive initiatives, the success of unions, the sweep pro-abortion votes and even his détente with China’s Xi – against the backdrop of Trump indictments and a completely unfunctional GOP controlled House of Representatives surely will turn public sentiments back toward Joe Biden. Really? The “stench” of the indictments has turned Trump into a sympathetic victim, noting the criminal investigations of Biden’s own family. And while Trump ain’t no spring chicken, he seems to have the vigor to be tough, while Biden shuffles when he walks and anything but forceful in his speeches. Even Biden’s position between Israel and the Palestinians is creating issues for the President.

Anyone who really thinks about it, listened to the candidate’s actual words, knows Biden is more about maintaining democracy… and Trump is all about installing a Trumpian autocracy, even if that requires trying to use the insurrection act to involve the military to round up and arrest Trump’s political opponents (aka “vermin”) and immigrants everywhere. But for whatever reason, that division of approaches has not sunk into the psyche of the electorate.

If any moderate independent candidate of note – like Joe Manchin – were to enter the race, Biden is probably over. As noted, Biden’s numbers for Latino, Black (even his bastion of Black women) and younger voters are plunging well below the levels in those demographics that elected him in 2020. Even if those constituencies simply do not vote at all, Biden is in trouble. Dems keep uttering the mantra that American voters, when it comes to an actual election, will rise to the occasion, acknowledge Biden’s accomplishments, protect democracy and reject an indicted (convicted?) and obvious autocrat. No matter this passionate belief, the polling numbers continue to push Trump above Biden.

I’m Peter Dekom, and wishful thinking and simply not believing democracy is at risk have taken down many nations in the past, and the United (??) States of America may just have stepped into that long line of failed democracies… with consequences most in the US simply cannot contemplate.