Crime is Down, Mostly

 

Crime is Down, Mostly

So Why Does Everyone Think It’s Worse?

The most recent numbers from Pew Research (published November 16th) show: “The number of unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2021 remained below its peak of 12.2 million in 2007. It was about the same size as in 2004 and lower than every year from 2005 to 2015.” So, the number of undocumented aliens is lower than Donald Trump and Governors like Texas’ Greg Abbott and Florida Governor DeSantis tell us? But the rise in the numbers of undocumented aliens is exploding, and the dramatic footage at our southern border sure looks like those who get in are increasing. Hmmm. Maybe not. We now know that the leading cause of death of children (under 18) is guns, but those same governors are making it increasingly easy for people to buy and openly (or even secretly) carry guns. Hmmm. But certainly, Mr Trump and those same governors are right about this massive surge in crime across the land. Not exactly. These days, facts have been replaced by politically expedient “alternative facts.”

So today, I would like to drill down on that purported surge in crime. Let’s start with… er reality: the only really salient increase has been in mass shootings by perps using semiautomatic assault weapons and criminals with easier access to guns in general (through judicial decisions and further removal of limitations on gun ownership and use), car thefts and hate crimes (primarily antisemitic and Islamophobic).

Overall, most violent crime is down. “In October, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s annual report showed violent crime in 2022 fell to its relatively low, prepandemic level. Yet in November, Gallup reported that a record-high 63% of U.S. adults said the ‘crime situation in the U.S. is extremely or very serious.’” Wall Street Journal, December 1st. Politicians with good visuals making a point to get elected? Nooo! Even property crimes are down. Mostly. Not that the reduction of all other types of criminal activity has been uniform everywhere. There is more shoplifting, for example in New York City, than anywhere else, but let’s look at the overall data starting with an emphasis on a truly non-violent crime: shoplifting and simple theft. Writing for the November 29th NY Times news feed, The Morning (German Lopez writer/editor), which presented the above charts, addresses the “viral exaggerations”:

“The various sources of crime data — from government agencies and private groups — tell a consistent story. Retail theft has not spiked nationwide in the past several years. If anything, it appears less common in most of the country than it was before the pandemic… The most up-to-date source is the shoplifting report published this month by the Council on Criminal Justice, which uses police data through the first half of 2023. The other sources go through only 2022.

“The council tracks 24 major U.S. cities. Overall, shoplifting incidents were 16 percent higher in the first half of 2023 than the first half of 2019. When New York City is excluded, however, reported shoplifting incidents fell over the same time period. Out of the 24 cities, 17 reported decreases in shoplifting… The shoplifting problem ‘is being talked about as if it’s much more widespread than it probably is,’ said Sonia Lapinsky, a retail expert at the consulting firm AlixPartners…

“Other data also indicates that shoplifting is not up in most cities since 2019. Retailers’ preferred measure, called shrink, tracks lost inventory, including from theft. Average annual shrink made up 1.57 percent of retail sales in 2022, up slightly from 2021 (1.44 percent) but down compared with 2019 (1.62 percent). The F.B.I. and the Bureau of Justice Statistics also found that theft and property crime ticked up in 2022 but remained below pre-Covid levels.

“The notion that the U.S. is enduring a period of higher crime in some areas is not wrong. Car thefts are up by more than 100 percent since 2019. Murders are on track to be 10 percent higher this year than they were in 2019 [with the accelerated proliferation of guns]… Events in New York tend to receive outsize scrutiny. It is the country’s biggest city, a big retail market and the headquarters for much of the national media. Another city where property crime has risen is Washington, D.C., where many journalists, as well as politicians, also live.

“Videos of extreme but rare crimes can go viral today. On social media, people post videos of looting flash mobs or thieves ramming cars into stores. ‘There are millions of property crimes a year,’ said Jeff Asher of the research firm AH Datalytics. As a result, people can always find outlandish anecdotes, even if crime is down… Conservative media has promoted these videos as evidence of disorder in liberal cities and under President Biden.

“Retailers have an interest in spreading the shoplifting narrative because it can suggest that disappointing profits are beyond their control… Inflation may play a role, too. Even if retail theft is not up, retailers might care more about it now. After all, higher prices have eaten into their profit margins by increasing the underlying costs of doing business. That makes reducing theft more important.” But without accentuating the “horribles” in society – with more than a little help from viral videos and cleaver editing – what would GOP politicians seeking to unseat incumbent Democrats use to claim they need to win? George Santos was just too obvious about his fabrications.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the political art of lying has reach new levels of sophistication, bolstered by AI imaging and sound… and just plain making up “alternative facts” that sound good but are anything but accurate.