Cry Me a River

Known permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Except for the 15% of Americans who still deny the existence of climate change and the majority of MAGA Republicans polled who believe that either we cannot afford the “liberal” agenda to contain climate change or simply that is not remotely as dangerous as it has definitively proven that it is, the world is quivering and suffering from the direct consequences of climate change. From the searing heat rendering increasing areas of our planet uninhabitable, turning productive agricultural regions into deserts and forests into kindling, to uncontrolled atmospheric rivers, eroding shorelines and intensifying tropical precipitation and flooding, Mother Nature and her immutable laws of physics are deaf to the deniers and marginalizers. Nature does not care what anyone thinks; she began with nothing and is blind to having to redo so much of the planet.

There are a number of “tipping points,” not calculated with any precision as we seem to learn our lessons the hard way, that send our optimistic assumptions into the trash can of futility. For example, we all know or should know that white surfaces reflect heat and light while darker surfaces absorb it. It’s the difference between a hot asphalt parking lot and a whitewashed concrete alternative. A climatic “tipping point” is where a process continues even if we were able to stop human greenhouse gas emissions. And as reflective white ice and snow melt, what lies beneath is always darker, always retaining more heat.

If you address the massive permafrost (aka “tundra”), found in vast tracks of Canada and Russia (see above picture), for example, the underlying frozen soil has trapped the ancient mass of organic matter from millennia ago, much of which has decomposed or will rapidly decompose when defrosted releasing CO2 and methane (24 times denser than CO2) into the atmosphere. So, that only makes the planet hotter, which melts more permafrost, a repetitive cycle that no longer requires manmade greenhouse gas emission to wreck more climate change damage: A tipping point. Permafrost accounts for 8.8 million square miles in the Northern Hemisphere.

But as we focus on snow and ice in polar regions and rivers in the sky, many of us only look at terrestrial rivers when they overflow their banks. But not only do melting ice and snow cause that sort of flooding, climate change has many other impacts on our river flow. Writing for March 5th The Conversation, research scientists Michael Rawlins, Associate Director, Climate System Research Center and Associate Professor of Climatology, UMass Amherst, and Ambarish Karmalkar, Assistant Professor of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, report the results of their recent study: “Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows…

“Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this ‘overland runoff.’… However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.

“When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study… More carbon in river water could end up ‘outgassed’ upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives climate warming. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the emergence of long-frozen viruses…

“Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation…

“Coastal lagoons may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though our current understanding of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky… River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists observed this in spring 2023, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting…

“There are concerns that rising river flows in that region are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents have been slowing in recent years as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would significantly affect temperatures across North America and Europe.

“At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.” In short, “you ain’t seen nuffin’ yet.” If we do not ramp up on our global effort to contain greenhouse gas emissions, soon that plan will no longer be enough to stop the intensifying damage from climate change disasters; we will have to begin to suck massive amounts of existing greenhouse gas emissions out of the atmosphere… or begin to enjoy the post-apocalyptic visions of Earth often depicted in movies.

I’m Peter Dekom, and if we do not care about ourselves in refusing to bear the burden of our profligate energy ways, you might think we might as least care about our children and future generations, who will suffer immensely more than us.