Are Economic Realities Still Major American Voter Issues?

A number of evolving socio-political indicators that tell us perhaps the assumptions political scientists and demographers continue to make about American voter motivations are flat wrong. What if “it’s no longer the economy, stupid”? Has the US political world changed so much that all this focus on “Bidenomics” and “Bidenflation” makes less difference than ever before? Oh, I guess if we were we mired in a major recession or depression, that traditional historical economic focus would hold true. But today, there is a vast demographic segment that no longer prioritizes dollars and cents priorities, the so-called “kitchen table conversations.” They pretend to denigrate the factual economic accomplishments and exaggerate failures of the other side, but routinely vote against their own pocketbook priorities.

You might jump to the conclusion that this is simply a trait of MAGA voters, who favor benefit cuts to themselves while voting massive benefits to the mega-rich, but it is bigger than that. For the largest cohort that is being added to the US voter demographic is that segment of Gen Z (aka “Zoomers”), there are similar but opposite “identity” politics that supersede traditional “it’s the economy, stupid” variables. “In recent years Gen Z has been a major force in civic life, leading social movements and voting at higher rates than previous generations did when they were the same age. In the next presidential election, 40.8 million members of Gen Z (ages 18-27 in 2024) will be eligible to vote, including 8.3 million newly eligible youth (ages 18-19 in 2024) who will have aged into the electorate since the 2022 midterm election.” Circle.Tufts.edu.

Some refer to this change in underlying voting trends as “tribalism,” where “identity” trumps economics. Oh sure, Gen Z has economic issues (e.g., student loans), but they seem to have given up on a world that appears to be hopelessly tilted toward older people. For older Americans, affordable housing is already determined, most do not have student loan issues, and most are coasting into a predictable retirement. And most legislators are older. Zoomers face the potential unemployment consequences of artificial intelligence. More than any other current voting demographic, they most face the consequences of climate change. They identify with other global minorities. They do not believe Social Security will be there for them. And while older voters revere Israel’s survival and growth in a hostile Midde East, Gen Z only sees the carnage in Gaza. Simply, Gen Z feels betrayed by their parents’ and older generations… and the entire political system that has defined the United States for a century and a half.

The Gallup World Happiness Report for 2024 generally shows that younger generations globally are more content than older demographics. But not in the United States, where Gen Z posts near the bottom… and where the United States as whole logs in near the bottom in the entire world. The March 22nd FastCompany.com summarizes the “why” here: “That comes as younger people are more prone to socialize through social media, which can bring its own set of mental health concerns. Factors that are somewhat unique to the U.S., like the student loan crisis and political climate, could also play larger roles in the state of unhappiness among the millennial and Gen Z cohorts. Those also potentially reflect the financial advantages given to older generations—like a more affordable housing market and reduced costs associated with higher education—that no longer apply to younger generations.”

The other side of the political spectrum is equally disenchanted with America today: MAGA voters are the quintessential cult followers, many basing their positions on their faith, their guidance from their pastors; they live in communities where red is the only color they see. They are able to filter out contradictory facts in social or mass media. Racial and religious identity define their votes. They feel left behind as gender, racial and ethnic minorities are viewed as flooding the country, marginalizing MAGA voters’ remaining power. They see the solution as a strong autocratic leader who will both cement their traditional power and marginalize these minority upstarts who are challenging their “traditional American values.”

Many refer to this MAGA schism as a “cultural war.” Purging conflicting books, classroom lessons, attempting to limit radical rightwing mis- and dis-information (which MAGA calls simply their “opinions” protected by the 1st Amendment). Rewriting history in support of what MAGA-supporters want to believe and whom they want to blame. Denigrating younger Progressives as radical, un-American, sexual “groomers” and even “vermin” in need of eradication. Fundamental Christian doctrine supersedes so-called “personal freedoms” in symbolic expression and control over medical practices, from abortion to vaccination. They fight with the zeal of the ancient crusaders sent to expel “heathens” from Jerusalem so many centuries ago. Feeling overwhelmed by minorities who do not share their white Christian values, MAGA-supporters passionately believe that these voters cannot be allowed to cast ballots (in “rigged elections”).

Oddly, some holding these extreme tribal views seem not to care if the United States collapses and forces a do-over… even if violence may well define the results. We’ve seen the warning signs for some time. Back on January 3, 2022, Dominic Packer, a psychology professor at Lehigh University, and Jay Van Bavel, a psychology and neural-science professor at New York University, wrote in The Atlantic: “By now, even people who differ on nearly all issues seem to agree on at least one thing: American politics has become riven by tribal conflict. Tucker Carlson claims that ‘schools are creating tribalism in our kids.’ Former President Barack Obama has warned that we risk ‘turning away from democratic principles in favor of tribalism and ‘might makes right.’ As the journalist George Packer, now of The Atlantic, once summarized the problem, ‘American politics today requires a word as primal as ‘tribe’ to get at the blind allegiances and huge passions of partisan affiliation. Tribes demand loyalty, and in return they confer the security of belonging. They’re badges of identity, not of thought. The underlying psychology of ‘us and them’ appears grounded in deep-rooted human tendencies to carve the world into groups and discriminate in favor of one’s own.’”

But when these factions truly raise the temperature of political conflict, when they no longer believe the United States will ever respect their beliefs, what exactly is the result? If current elections eliminate “compromise” from political discourse, how does legislation get passed? Do Zoomers simply wait until the older generations age out? Do MAGA believers allow the nation to wait that long? Are we on the precipice of the great, and possibly violent, American unraveling?

I’m Peter Dekom, but as factional autocracy spreads around the world, as conspiracy theories explode, does genuine democracy stand a chance?