The Modern Era of Proxy Wars

The Modern Era of Proxy Wars

Part I, the Biggest Battle: China vs the US

Proxy wars are everywhere. Iran vs the West (via Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and elsewhere, and Hamas in Gaza), Russia vs NATO (Ukraine), etc. But the proxy with the biggest stakes pits China vs the United States. So far, China’s battle against the US – over influence, military power, territorial expansion and economic might – is a mixed bag. Like that of Russia, Iran, North Korea and Israel, China’s leadership (President Xi Jinping) is betting on the continued internal polarized unraveling of the United States. A Trump victory assures the death of NATO, the purposeful withdrawal of the US from its treaty commitments and overseas military and diplomatic efforts, and the probable triumph of Russia over Ukraine. A Trump loss suggests at least sporadic political violence, open resistance to federal law by red states and, if they are lucky, a full-on American civil war. Either way, America is weakening.

But so far, all China has to show for its ambitious proxy war is a failing economy (real estate collapse, bank failures and very high unemployment) and a litany of inconvenient Western sanctions that continue to escalate. It continues to build towards the most modern and massive military in the world, heavy with cutting edge missiles and rockets, modern jet bombers and fighters, drone technology, submarines, aircraft carriers and a humongous army. Even though the People’s Republic of China has never ruled over Taiwan, China still claims that modern island nation as a “traditional and inseparable” PRC province, with a very clear statement that, sooner or later, it will implement a takeover, voluntarily or by military force.

Meanwhile, the party that stands for a fully independent Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party, just extended into its third consecutive presidential term. The recent election of Lai Ching-te, a former doctor from a poor mining family, is viewed by the PRC as a defiant slap in the face. China conducted a rather unsubtle show of force following that election, underscoring how easy it might be for China to cut off Taiwan from the rest of the world.

Continued destabilization inside the United States is fulfilling China’s dream. Europe, with no significant Pacific Ocean holdings anywhere near China, is less concerned with that side of Asia and PRC territorial ambitions in the region. A recent trip by Xi to France, Serbia and Hungary illustrates a vector in Europe to improve relations with the PRC… but there is still concern that China’s direct and indirect support of Russia’s war in Europe, right on the border with NATO, remains a tense issue.

The subtext here is how Russia, sapped of weapons and bearing the massive cost of war, is able to continue attacking Ukraine, even escalating its efforts. Ukraine is to Russia what Taiwan is to China. And while China has pledged not to provide military weapons to Moscow, it seems pretty clear that without China’s support – from providing “civilian” technology with clear military value to out-and-out trade and financial support – Russia’s war might quickly collapse. German Lopez, writing for the May 28th The Morning from the New York Times, explains: “Russia’s economy is limited by steep sanctions from some of the richest countries in the world. Yet Moscow has managed to keep paying for its war machine.

“How? U.S. officials point to China…. China has vowed not to send weapons to Russia. But it has supported Russia’s economy by buying oil and expanding other kinds of trade. Russia uses the revenue from that trade to manufacture weapons. It has also bought parts for these weapons from China, according to U.S. officials: Last year, Russia got 90 percent of its microelectronic imports from China, using them for missiles, tanks and planes. Without Beijing’s help, Moscow might still continue its war, but it would do so in a weakened state…

“China’s wager… Support for Russia is risky. The U.S. and Europe have warned that they could place sanctions on China if it supports the war. But to China, the benefits of a Russian victory in Ukraine may outweigh the costs.

“Among those benefits: The war has entangled the U.S. and its allies in a faraway conflict, straining the U.S. military’s ammunition stockpiles. It has made Russia, a big military power, more dependent on China. It has also been instructive: China has ambitions to invade Taiwan, and it has watched Russia’s gamble to see the world’s response — one that has exposed the limits of America’s reach. While Washington got its closest allies to punish Russia for the invasion, big democracies such as Brazil and India continue to buy Russian oil… ‘Countries around the world won’t follow the U.S. where it wants to go, even with what U.S. officials consider a black-and-white issue like Ukraine,’ my colleague Edward Wong, who covers foreign policy, told me. ‘That is much clearer since the war.’

“Still, China’s support for Russia could backfire — and in some ways already has. It angered European leaders, who criticized Beijing’s involvement when China’s president, Xi Jinping, visited France this month. Arguably, China’s interference has made it easier for the U.S. to adopt tougher trade restrictions and other policies designed to hurt Beijing. The war united the U.S. and its allies to an extent not seen in decades. If Russia loses, China could be stuck with a diminished partner and frayed relations with some of the world’s biggest economies.

“To balance the risks and benefits, China has tried to walk a fine line. It has boasted about a “no limits” partnership with Russia. But it also claims it’s neutral in the war and has tried to maintain plausible deniability in its support for its partner.” As the United States seems hell-bent on self-destruction – two large angry polarized factions who hate each other willing to risk democracy itself – China’s ability to grow a massive wedge between the United States and its traditional allies increases exponentially.

I’m Peter Dekom, and China yearns to be the sole and unchallenged superpower on Earth, and we seem to be helping fulfill that ambition with our divisive political insanity.