Actuarial predictions, suggesting that by 2030 half of our child-bearing women will not have children, is very much reflected in the current US birthrate: 1.62 live births per woman, noting that replacement level, needed to keep the population steady, is 2.1 live births per woman. Without replenishment from immigrants (an unpopular choice), this trend projects fewer consumers, fewer workers in the longer term, fewer taxpayers in our immediate future with a serious hit to the cost of living (expensive workers remain) and our overall economic growth.
The decline in our fertility rate is relatively recent. J.D. Vance, Trump’s increasingly unpopular running mate, argues that citizens without children should have fewer voting rights than those with kids, because, he believes, those without children have less of a stake in our body politic. He argues that incenting external childcare, no-fault divorce and allowing abortions and IVF are antithetical to a solid, faith-family-driven society. He also thinks deportation of undocumented immigrants – a mega-billion-dollar effort – will be good for us all.
I thought the Make America Great Again vector was targeting returning the United States to the pre-civil rights litigation/legislation era – to the 1950s/60s. J.D. Vance’s proposals seem to be focusing on returning the United States to the values and standards of life in the 18th and 19th centuries, which rubs not only childless cat ladies the wrong way but most of modern Americans.
Where GOP mandates vaporize the right to abortions, women are now having babies when they are too young, totally unprepared and unable to support or afford the cost of raising a child… and not one penny is being authorized by these rightwing judges and legislators to provide financial and social support to these abandoned mothers. That’s forgetting about those states where rape and incest are no excuse, plus the resulting spillover resulting the denial of medical care by doctors afraid of overzealous rightwing prosecutors looking for criminal convictions.
There are so many reasons couples that would have fallen into the parenting pattern a decade or two ago but are today forgoing having children. When they would have normally planned a pregnancy. There are political reasons. The hateful polarization has become so pronounced that we seem to be living in two countries… and it not getting better. Climate change is making life increasingly difficult, from record-breaking heat to more mega-billion disasters (tropical storms, tornadoes, coastal storm surges and rising tides, flooding in some regions with wildfires in others, the migration of dangerous animals and insects and the material impact on agricultural land). Guns are now the leading death among children and teens, just a rightwing judges make gun ownership increasingly easier.
J.D. Vance bizarre 19th century values may have provoked a litany of responses, but I will concentrate on one individual’s summary of what Gens Y and Z seem to face. Writing for the August 15th BuzzFeed, Alana Valko looked at how one 29-year-old summarized the biggest issue, well beyond that “childless cat lady rubric”: “[O]thers are not so quick to blame cat ladies and Beyoncé fans — many argue that it's not that millennials don't want children; it's that they can't in the current environment. This is the case for 29-year-old Charlie Fitzgerald, who goes by she/they/he pronouns, and who went viral for laying out why millennials aren't having kids…
“Charlie began, ‘I'm gonna drop some opinions on the whole 'millennials aren't having kids' thing as a working-class millennial.’… It absolutely baffles me that the government is pretending like they don't know why we're not having kids because, frankly, it is glaringly obvious. The economy is a [$%^*] tire fire right now. The cost of groceries , the cost and availability of baby formula , the cost of diapers, the cost of childcare , the cost of giving birth in the United States… Statistically speaking, when you're born poor in this country, you're probably gonna die poor, and your kids are gonna be in the same boat. Being poor [$%^*] sucks. I don't want that for my kid.’ This is a common phenomenon known as the poverty trap , or the cycle of poverty…
“Having a child in the US is notably not cheap — Business Insider found that raising one small child in 2024 will cost at least $25,714 (up 42% since 2016). In comparison, the average annual salary nationwide is about $59,428. That means you'd spend 43% of your income on your child alone, not including your own expenses like rent, food, healthcare, or taxes… ‘It's not that we didn't try to have better lives,’ Charlie said. ‘A lot of us went to college and what did that get us? A bunch of us have debt that we're never gonna be able to pay off. A lot of us have degrees that are almost irrelevant because the jobs that we were told were there when we got our degrees aren't really there, as it turns out. Or they are there, and the people that are in those positions can't afford to retire, so they're just gonna stay where they're at…
“‘Where does that put the rest of us?’ Charlie asked, regarding people who cannot find a job right now, with or without a degree. ‘Entry-level jobs, retail, food, customer service. In the state that I live in, that averages, like, $11 to $15 an hour.’… Charlie continued, ‘And before y'all hit my comments saying that people making that little money shouldn't have kids, that's most of us.’ A 2023 survey found that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, meaning one missed paycheck or unexpected cost could put them in a tough spot.
“As well as the costs of caring for a child, which prevent many millennials from having children, Charlie also pointed out that many parents don't have paid maternity leave. ‘[This] opens up a whole slew of issues because you can't afford to take that time off, so you gotta go right the [$%^*] back to work,’ she said. While the US Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) protects eligible employees up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave, there is no federal paid maternity leave in America, and many people can't afford to take unpaid leave even if it's offered.”
The housing affordability crisis is just an ugly mirror of the demise of upward mobility, and despite MAGA demands to end all or most abortions, just about all the possible programs to help younger families, from childcare and medical coverage to educational costs, are on the GOP chopping block. What’s worse, tax cuts for the rich will decimate the few remaining programs that might survive… and the Trump pledge to assess a minimum 10% tariff on all imports will push costs, mostly into the homes of those who can afford it least. Think the homeless issue is all about the lazy, the addicted and the mentally ill? Take another look at those in that category who hobble to low-paying work every day… or have been looking for a job as best they can.
I’m Peter Dekom, and anyone who believes only in winning a culture war should take a long hard look at the impact of those “fighting words” on their day-to-day quality of lives… and ask exactly what kind of country are they really voting for.
No comments:
Post a Comment