New Politics American Style?

New Politics American Style?

Who Has the Guns and is Ready to Use Them

In the back of my mind, as I catalog all the threats of civil war or armed insurrection based on the election, I needed to remind myself of how many firearms are in US civilian hands and where those weapons are concentrated. According to AmericanGunFacts.com (January 22nd), “With over 434 million guns privately held… According to Pew Research, among Americans that own only one gun, 62% own a handgun versus 22% who own a rifle, with the majority of those being AR-15s. The remainder own shotguns.”

There are an estimated 20-30 million AR-15-style semiautomatic firearms in that mix, and they are the preferred weapon of mass shooters, trained militia (most of which are MAGA-oriented) and are the likely firearms of choice in a civil war or an insurrection. According to a recent poll from Quinnipiac University, 27% of Republicans support an assault weapons ban and 70% oppose, while 88% of Democrats support the idea and 11% oppose it. In terms of gun ownership in general, Republicans own more than double the number guns owned by Democrats, and only blue states have tried to limit or ban such assault weapons. In recent years, AR-15 sales have exploded, so the above ownership splits suggest which side is more likely to shoot in forcing a leadership change that does not jibe with actual voting results. 

Recently, Newsweek pulled an article from December 20, 2021, noting that “Millions of Angry, Armed Americans Stand Ready to Seize Power If Trump Loses in 2024.” The earlier piece, written by David Freedman, began by presenting a disabled Vietnam vet, armed with an AR-15, as he moved towards Trump’s speech at the Ellipse on January 6th, “[He] is no loner. His political comments on the social-media site Quora received 44,000 views in the first two weeks of November [2021] and more than 4 million overall. He is one of many rank-and-file Republicans who own guns and in recent months have talked openly of the need to take down—by force if necessary—a federal government they see as illegitimate, overreaching and corrosive to American freedom.

“The phenomenon goes well beyond the growth of militias, which have been a feature of American life at least since the Ku Klux Klan rose to power after the Civil War. Groups like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, which took part in the January 6th riot at the Capitol and may have played organizational roles, have grown in membership. Law enforcement has long tracked and often infiltrated these groups. What [that Vietnam vet attending the January 6th Washington, DC gathering] represents is something else entirely: a much larger and more diffuse movement of more-or-less ordinary people, stoked by misinformation, knitted together by social media and well-armed. In 2020, 17 million Americans bought 40 million guns and in 2021 were on track to add another 20 million. If historical trends hold, the buyers will be overwhelmingly white, Republican and southern or rural.

“America's massive and mostly Republican gun-rights movement dovetails with a growing belief among many Republicans that the federal government is an illegitimate tyranny that must be overthrown by any means necessary. That combustible formula raises the threat of armed, large-scale attacks around the 2024 presidential election—attacks that could make the January 6 insurrection look like a toothless stunt by comparison. ‘The idea that people would take up arms against an American election has gone from completely farfetched to something we have to start planning for and preparing for,’ says University of California, Los Angeles law professor Adam Winkler, an expert on gun policy and constitutional law…

“Absent a strong response from some combination of police, National Guard and military, it's easy to see how Republicans would be in a position to essentially take control of the country simply by virtue of their massive arsenal. ‘Both sides might be equally convinced of the illegitimacy of the other's actions,’ says Winkler. ‘What's asymmetric is the capability to inflict violence.’… Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and that there's a relatively peaceful resolution to what's likely to be a contentious, hotly disputed election. But that result isn't assured. And even if any conflict ends quietly before it gets too far, experiencing a near-miss might leave our already fragile democracy more weakened and vulnerable. It's hard to say what it would take to repair it.”

Well, there a whole lot more AR-15s in civilian hands today, and there are militia who “stand back and stand by” ready to use those guns to force Trump into the presidency even if he loses the election… with significant grassroots support from the MAGA base. According to a September national poll from PRRI, about a quarter of Republicans and 1 in 7 Americans overall believe force of arms should be undertaken in the event that Trump loses. A plethora of open carry laws, mostly in red states, send a clear and intimidating message to Trump’s opposition.

As the election neared, Trump’s cries for retribution, setting aside constitutional limits – using the Department of Justice and even the military to round up and arrest clearly named senior Democrats as well as any body of protestors that may oppose him or his policies, while shutting down Trump-critical news media – have ratcheted up both in frequency and overt hostility. His followers are repeating his threats, many willing to do whatever it takes if the election results do not produce the results they demand. Even a highly respected four star general and Trump’s former chief of staff, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly – describing the former president’s plans, practices and focused intentions as making Trump a “fascist” – have only incented the extreme MAGA base to force the creation the United States as a clear white Christian nation where their interpretation of the Bible overrides the Constitution.

I’m Peter Dekom, and yet a vast majority of voters still see this election as based on underlying issues and not the Trump oft-repeated threat that would effectively end our democracy, to be replaced by a white Christian nationalist (fascist) political system.