What got Trump reelected was not his policy of personal retribution but the same issues that have displaced or undercut leaders in Japan, Australia, Canada, the UK and EU nations: inflation and immigration. Incumbents globally are losing in droves over these two issues as the mood among developed nations shifts hard right. Explanations of “why inflation is not our fault” consistently fell on deaf ears, and immigration is as big an issue in Europe as it is here. Support of Israel is waning fast almost everywhere, and that Trump’s pen did not sign the weapons shipment orders to Israel, used to decimate Gaza, saved him from his pro-Israel stance. But what does differentiate Trump’s agenda from all those incumbent-destroying vectors is his pledge of retribution.
But Trump’s pledge to unravel many Biden policies, especially immigration, is a less personal act of retribution than it is an indiscriminate act of force that sends a strong message. Even as “detain and deport” cannot physically quickly be deployed on a larger scale in the immediate future. That issue has been handled with one of Trump’s first appointments. In a social-media post November 10th, Trump said former acting ICE chief Tom Homan would be “in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.”
“Homan, who served for a year and half during Trump’s first term, was a divisive figure, ramping up arrests of people living in the U.S. illegally and discarding some of the enforcement priorities of the Obama administration that targeted criminals but left alone otherwise law-abiding undocumented immigrants.” Wall Street Journal, November 11th. “It’s not going to be a mass sweep of neighborhoods. It’s not going to be building concentration camps,” Homan said recently on CBS’ 60 Minutes. My guess it will be a phased approach, testing constituent reactions as the effort accelerates. “Polls show that most Americans want tougher enforcement of immigration laws — but they don’t support indiscriminate deportations, especially if they divide families. That’s how Trump’s first-term crackdown turned into a political disaster, forcing him to retreat.” Doyle McManus for the November 11th Los Angeles Times.
Trump also named immigration ultra rightwing hard-liner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy. A key architect of Trump's Muslim travel ban and other very harsh, controversial policies targeting immigrants, Miller was a regular target of criticism and backlash for his policies and statements. However, pragmatics, from labor shortages in lower level, but necessary, labor and the sheer cost of detaining and deporting will slow the pace of such efforts.
But the personal persecution/prosecution of clearly identified individual Trump opponents truly depends on who is appointed Attorney General and how much power he (and the list only includes men) is given. It’s hard to see actual criminal prosecutions of high-level Democrats – from Biden and Harris to Schiff and Pelosi – but lesser politicos are quite vulnerable. Nevertheless, the appointment of someone as AG like rightwing Mike Davis, a right-wing activist considered a leading candidate for Trump’s attorney general and former chief counsel for nominations for the Senate Judiciary Committee, could signal pedal-to-the-metal harshness. On November 6th, Davis threatened enemies of Trump and the right to (legally) “drag their dead political bodies through the streets” and burn them.
Obvious targets include Fannie Willis, the Georgia DA who indicted Trump and “fellow conspirators,” New York judges Juan Merchan and Arthur Engoron (who presided over civil and criminal trials that found Trump liable), NY prosecutors Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg (who led the business records criminal case based on Stormy Daniel’s payoffs) and NY Attorney General Lettia James (who successfully caused Trump (and several family members) to be banned from doing business in NY, and perhaps some of those who led the impeachment of Trump in the House of Representatives.
We know federal special prosecutor, Jack Smith, appointed by Biden’s AG Merrick Garland, is winding the federal criminal cases against Trump down… but he could well be in the crosshairs of a legal Trump vendetta. You can also expect Trump’s weaponized Departments of Justice/Treasury to begin criminal investigations of and IRS audits against major journalists and other politicos who opposed him. With the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling, Donald Trump seems to have generated a “get out of jail free” card, an exemption from any criminal investigation that could be described, even remotely, as a possible “official action” (not defined). This ruling pretty much gives Trump free reign to turn federal agencies into his spear tips of retribution.
“If Trump appoints a more pliant attorney general this time, he has the power to order the Justice Department to investigate his critics, a GOP lawyer who is reportedly advising the president-elect wrote last week. The department’s independence from political meddling is a long-standing norm, but it isn’t protected by law.
“Still, if he targets his critics, his term will be dominated by legal firestorms — potentially getting in the way of the rest of his agenda. Last month, he claimed that he refrained from prosecuting Clinton during his first term because ‘it would look terrible’ — an implicit bow to political constraints… He has also promised to pardon most of the more than 1,000 people convicted of or indicted on charges of storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.” McManus. Yet, that pardon may serve as a greenlight for MAGA extremists to pursue “woke” targets and clear their opponents with relative safety not only in red states but now without fear of convictions under federal law, particularly hate crimes and civil rights prosecutions.
But if he goes too far, Donald Trump, who seeks adoration from as many Americans as possible, also faces massive protests – which he may well counter with violent suppression – not unlike the long-forgotten Vietnam War protests that took down a President (which sustained far longer and more significantly than the relatively mild “Black Lives Matter” protests of recent years). I am sure he will start with a bang, but reality will catch up to him if he embraces extreme responses which clearly fly in the face of what the majority of Americans are willing to accept. Does he worry about his legacy? Is mega-extreme JD Vance likely to ramp up harshness if he replaces an ailing Trump? And exactly what will such extremes do to the MAGA movement?
I’m Peter Dekom, and this new Trump vector of retribution with place unprecedented demands on the judicial system, which will test the Constitution against the very justices he had appointed or appoints.
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