Current Events – Not So Obvious and Even Less Pretty

Wildfires are exceptionally visual and hard to ignore. So are the growing number of increasingly powerful hurricanes, mostly focused on red states. Flooding vs drought meet drying aquifers in our nation’s Midwest. What is less visible but perhaps more globally impactful on nations bordering the North Atlantic Ocean is the potential of losing an essential Atlantic current. It’s all part of the massive impact that climate change is imposing on so many natural global patterns.

Scientist are waking up: “Forty-four of the world's leading climate scientists have called on Nordic policymakers to address the potentially imminent and ‘devastating’ collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents… In an open letter published online Monday (Oct. 21), University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann and other eminent scientists say the risks of weakening ocean circulation in the Atlantic have been greatly underestimated and warrant urgent action.

“The currents in question are those forming the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant ocean conveyor belt that includes the Gulf Stream and transports vital heat to the Northern Hemisphere. Research shows the AMOC is slowing down and could soon reach a tipping point due to global warming, throwing Earth's climate into chaos.” Sascha Pare, October 22nd, on LiveScience.com. We’re not sure exactly when, but the signs are evident to scientists tracking the phenomenon. Most agree, the event is not too far off. The above map, from physics.org, illustrates how these currents work when properly flowing.

Not only does this current system allow Europe to enjoy relative moderate winters, but the sea life ecosystem, their food sources and the underwater vegetation (plants that scrub greenhouse gases and lie at the base of the relevant food chain), could be severely decimated if that current stops. Writing for the February 9th CNN News, Laura Paddiso, adds some specifics, including the surrounding ambiguities: “A 2021 study found that the AMOC was weaker than any other time in the past 1,000 years. And a particularly alarming — and somewhat controversial — report published in July last year, concluded that the AMOC could be on course to collapse potentially as early as 2025.

“Yet huge uncertainties remain. Jeffrey Kargel, senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute in Arizona, said he suspected the theory of a potentially imminent shutdown of the AMOC ‘will remain somewhat controversial until, one year, we know that it is happening.’… He likened its potential collapse to the ‘wild gyrations of a stock market that precede a major crash’ — it’s nearly impossible to unpick which changes are reversible, and which are a precursor to a disaster.

“Modern data shows the AMOC’s strength fluctuates, but there is no observed evidence yet of a decline, Hirschi said. ‘Whether abrupt changes in the AMOC similar to those seen in the past will occur as our climate continues to warm is an important open question.’… This study is a piece of that puzzle, Rahmstorf said. ‘(It) adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future,’ he said. ‘We will ignore this risk at our peril.’”

Eric Ralls, writing for the November 27th Earth.com, explains this current: “It starts in the Gulf of Mexico, where warm, salty water flows northward along the eastern coast of the United States and across the Atlantic towards Europe… As this warm water reaches the North Atlantic, it cools down, becomes denser, and sinks deep into the ocean… This sinking process pulls more warm water north to replace it, creating a continuous loop that helps regulate the climate by distributing heat across the planet…

“Humans rely on the AMOC in several important ways. By regulating global temperatures, it helps maintain stable weather patterns, which are crucial for agriculture, ecosystems, and our daily lives. Researchers point out that the… AMOC… is now weaker than at any other time in the past 1,000 years… The research team from several leading universities explains that global warming is behind this slowdown… Their new modeling suggests that meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet and Canadian glaciers could be the missing piece of the puzzle….

“The Earth has already warmed 1.5ºC since the industrial revolution, and the Arctic has been heating up nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet… All that heat is melting Arctic sea ice, glaciers, and the Greenland ice sheet… ‘Since 2002, Greenland lost 5,900 billion tons (gigatons) of ice,’ notes the research team. ‘To put that into perspective, imagine if the entire state of Texas was covered in ice 26 feet thick.’…All this fresh meltwater flowing into the subarctic ocean is lighter than salty seawater, so it doesn’t sink as much.

“That messes with the southward flow of deep, cold waters from the Atlantic and weakens the Gulf Stream — the same current that gives Britain its mild winters… ‘Our new research also shows the North and South Atlantic oceans are more connected than previously thought,’ the team states… Changes in one part of the ocean can quickly affect distant regions. When the oceanic circulation is strong, it transfers a lot of heat to the North Atlantic… But when it weakens, the surface of the ocean south of Greenland doesn’t warm up as much, leading to what’s called a ‘warming hole.’ Meanwhile, the South Atlantic ends up storing more heat and salt.”

And yet, our nation is dominated by climate change skeptics and hordes of people who believe scientists are woke elitists. They embrace conspiracy theories over facts and often believe if they pray hard enough, God will bless them by recycling the Earth to fonder times. As I like to repeat, Mother Nature started with nothing, is governed by the laws of physics and is thoroughly unimpressed with politicians who believe they can legislate climate disruptions away. Preferences to rich business interests over responsible environment polices persist. Simply put, Mother Nature just plain does not care. Humanity also is still unwilling to care enough to contain this existential threat.

I’m Peter Dekom, and facing reality seems to me to be the only path to sustain life and the planet we all hope it can remain.