They’re Baaack… and Can Kill Your Credit Score

 

They’re Baaack… and Can Kill Your Credit Score

Gen Z vs Student Loan Repayments

Gen Z seem to be the new sacrificial lambs in Trump’s America. Even as many voted for Trump, the supporter of the new man-up machismo vs woke rising female power, they are facing absurdly higher housing costs, as those most junior in recent hires, they are the most likely to lose their jobs in the impending recession (a certainty for many of those in federal jobs), the cost of living is skyrocketing, interest rates are soaring and they are the most powerless adult generation in the nation. State legislatures and Congress have very few elected Gen Z representatives. And now, as icing on a poisonous cake, those student loans that were in a temporary freeze… are now officially unfrozen. If Republicans are to implement their massive tax cuts for the super-rich, anything that raises the deficit that can be cut is toast. Like unpaid student loans.

Student debt was not a significant number 50 years ago, but as the above NY times chart reflects, tuition increased over the years at triple the inflation rate, just as government cuts to scholarships fell. With higher interest rates, the aggregation of student debt quadrupled in the last 25 years. There is more student debt now than the totality of US credit card debt. Today, with the demise of the federal Department of Education, the rising resentment of “educated elites” by the MAGA masses and the direct assault by the Trump administration against prestigious research universities and their governmental funding, the writing was on the wall for all that accrued and hanging student debt. The new mandate, effectively pay or die, began on May 5th.

Writing for The Morning, NY Times News feed, May 5th, Stacy Cowley writes: “For five years, more than 40 million Americans have not faced dire consequences if they failed to pay back their federal student loan debt. That ends [May 5th]… As the coronavirus pandemic convulsed the economy, President Trump and Congress brought relief: They allowed borrowers to take a break from their payments. The government also froze the interest, meaning borrowers’ balances did not grow. People saved hundreds or even thousands of dollars per month.

“The measure was popular at the time. It let people improve their credit scores, pay down other debts and build savings. So officials extended the reprieve nine times — across the rest of Trump’s first term and most of former President Biden’s… But the government made those loans, and letting them go unpaid added to the deficit. Some economists also warned about sending the wrong message — that it was fine not to repay your debt. Eventually, the payment freeze ended, but policymakers said they wouldn’t penalize borrowers for late payments yet.

“Now even that break is gone, and late payments are showing up in credit reports for millions of people. Today, the government restarts collections on defaulted loans — first by docking tax refunds, then by garnishing paychecks and Social Security benefits.” The Biden administration tried unsuccessfully to reduce/forgive a lot of that student debt but was stopped in federal court. “To prevent borrowers from facing bills larger than what they can pay, the government can tie your monthly payment to your income. Biden’s new program to do that, called SAVE, cut some borrowers’ bills in half and allowed millions of low-wage workers to pay nothing at all.

“But several Republican-led states said in legal challenges that he couldn’t do that, and federal courts froze the plan. (Loan forgiveness has been especially unpopular on the right. College graduates are more likely to be Democrats, although many people with student debt started degrees and never finished.) Some eight million people who enrolled in the plan are now in limbo.

“The Trump administration intends to end the plan if courts don’t. For now, borrowers on SAVE can simply stay on pause — they won’t be considered delinquent — but that extension is nearly certain to end sometime this year. No one knows exactly when, which stresses borrowers out.

“Another point of confusion is Trump’s ambition to close the Education Department — the agency that owns and manages federal student debt — and move the loans to another agency… Moving all those records, including contracts with the companies that collect payments, would be complicated, and it can’t happen without Congress. Lawmakers and federal officials tell me there’s no plan for this.” Cowley.

This repayment program will put pressures on Gen Z, well above the impending recession, since whatever their discretionary budgets may have been is reduced dramatically. Home ownership is now all but abandoned, consumer purchases will drop, marriages delayed and giving birth as Herr Trump seems to demand is just an unaffordable luxury. The notion of serious government-supported childcare has been reduced to a bad joke. It’s back to Ramen for lunch and dinner for way too many. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and this nation appears to enjoy eating their children’s future to appease the rich… with absolutely no shame at all.

Red State American, Blue State American or Just Plain American?

   

Red State American, Blue State American or Just Plain American?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

“What Trump does not understand about anything, is that he thinks you can call somebody all kinds of names, and then you make peace and just move on. Well, that person you’ve just called all those names is your enemy for life. He may not say it, but he thinks it.” 

 Former Obama economic advisor and current fund manager, Steve Rattner, Puck.com, April 17th

The difference between the pre-WWII “America First” movement and the current Trump iteration revolves around the fact that, until Donald Trump attempted to bully the rest of the world under this tariff/trade war attacks, the post-WWII United States led the world (at least the democracy-driven Western world) in military power, economic leadership, wealth and global influence. Cheap goods were not “ripping us off,” any more than a sale at Macy’s is ripping off consumers. But words matter, insults against our allies followed by harsh tariffs matter, and the fierce isolation, that Trump mounted in his iteration of “America First,” has redefined the United States of America as an arrogant, untrustworthy bully, wildly successful in casting itself as an isolationist nation going it alone. If there’s a post-Trump recapture of trust and viable alliances, it will be a long time coming.

As Trump seems to have burned down so many bridges to the rest of the world, most of it in just under 100 days, what happened? In an interview on The Good Fight (Substack, April 19th), Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University, 71st Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton and the Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama, presented this 30,000-foot view of the United States after this recent transformation: “There are set patterns that we associate with developing countries, for which some people would use the term ‘banana republic.’

“In mature democracies, it's institutions that dominate; in banana republics, it's personalities that dominate. In mature democracies, it's the rule of law that governs interactions between businesses and between business and government; in emerging markets, it’s personalities, personal connection, and loyalty. In mature democracies, the central bank and finance sits with independence relative to politics; in emerging markets, that is much more in question. In mature democracies, the goal is interaction, openness, and prospering along with the world; in immature democracies, in emerging markets, it is nationalist economic policies tied to particular interests.

“The United States in a stretch of a few short months is transforming from being the United States to being something much more like Juan Perón's Argentina—and that is being recognized by markets. It's being recognized in the economy. It's being recognized by people.

“The market version of it comes from looking at patterns. In the United States, traditionally when stocks go down, that's because the world is riskier and less certain. So bond yields go down as well, people rush to buy bonds, and the dollar goes up, as people in a more uncertain environment seek safety in the dollar.

“There's a different pattern. It's the pattern of emerging markets. It's the pattern that prevailed very briefly in the United States before Paul Volcker was appointed to the central bank during the Carter administration. It's the everything-goes-together pattern. Stocks go down, bond yields go up, the currency goes down. We now have that pattern in markets in the United States. But that's the market version of it.”

The global reaction is to create new workarounds against US economic hegemony, create new trade alliances that exclude the United States and challenge the supremacy of the US dollar (now perceived as “risky”) and the financial trading platforms that are/were controlled by major US financial institutions. Nation by nation, the world is turning its back to the United States. There’s no going back… for a very long time, If ever. China is delighted! They plan on resisting the US… no matter what it takes. And they can play dirty, very dirty.

Inside the United States, clearly and knowingly provoking a power struggle to take the US Supreme Court down a notch, Trump is using his generally popular immigration policy massively to revoke student visas, to assert his “anti-woke” agenda to clamp down on universities, law firms and even medical journals, asserting a level of censorship that flies in the face of our First Amendment. Claiming the ability to alter “American born citizenship,” insisting that centuries old war power statutes (as well as the President’s right to control “foreign affairs”) give him the power to deport, without due process, any foreign-born US resident (and perhaps even US citizens who are critical of his policies). The courts, showing deference to presidential policy-setting rights, have given Trump enough wiggle room to delay. But the confrontation, that constitutional crisis is upon us. Trump even insists that he is not required to answer the federal court’s questions.

I remember when “Southern hospitality” was open and amazing, less so for African Americans, but in today’s world, if you are in a deep red state at a white-owned establishment, you may not want to tell them that you are visiting from California or New York. The moment will change as they try to be nice but are fighting their revulsion at your presence. Unfortunately, there are red state Americans and blue state Americans, and even when they attempt to listen to each other, there is a deep disconnect.

Young men, seeking a new masculine identity, are more likely to follow “man-up” influencers and podcasts than any other form of media. “Teachers are raising concerns about the detrimental influence of social media personalities , such as Andrew Tate , on student behaviour, citing a rise in misogyny and sexism within schools… A recent survey conducted by the NASUWT teaching union revealed that nearly three in five teachers (59 per cent) believe social media contributes to the declining behaviour of students.” The Independent, April 19th. These younger voters, here and across the Pond, cannot be reached by traditional media, not even Fox News. What’s wrong with just being an “American”?

Trump’s version of the Russian Tsar’s Rasputin appears to be Harvard educated “economist,” Peter “I love tariffs” Navarro, who is generally considered an economic whack-job by virtually all credible economists. An outlier with dangerous influence. And while a prudently applied tariff has it place in global economics, the major American institutions, including the Federal Reserve, believe Trump’s unstable, on-again/off-again mega-tariffs are leading us straight into an ignoble period of stagflation. Tourism is sliding down fast. Canadians are cancelling their US vacations in droves (as are other nations’ travelers); many are listing their US properties for sale. Exactly, who would be dumb enough to attend the 2028 Olympics? Hotel or a holding tank?

I’m Peter Dekom, and there are an increasing number of trained psychologists who are beginning to question whether our self-proclaimed “stable genius” is indeed mentally “stable” without even having to answer the “genius” claim.

Thought Control, Teaching Only "Right Thinking," Purposefully Ambiguous Terms

Thought Control, Teaching Only “Right Thinking,” Purposefully Ambiguous Terms

Arkansas becomes the second state, after Oklahoma, to mandate the posting of the Ten Commandments in every public-school classroom and government building in the state. The Establishment Clause of the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits the government from establishing a state religion or favoring one religion over another. The version of the Ten Commandments to be posted are taken from Christian versions of the Old Testament. MAGA Republicans (are there any other kind these days?), with a less than subtle white Christian nationalist platform, have argued that there is no prohibition against acknowledging a national religion, as long as other faiths have a right to practice without discrimination. But then, what does “establishment” mean?

We are watching a MAGA minority pushing to mandate a very rightwing version of political thought and beliefs as the only proper vision to be taught in any school or other institution where any federal money is spent… which pretty much covers most public schools, all state colleges and universities, especially major research universities – like Harvard and MIT. Using a set of 2023 Supreme Court rulings against affirmative action admissions based on race – Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina, the Trump administration has declared that any DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) policy used directly or indirectly by an educational institution, or even a private employer receiving federal funding, is illegally discriminatory.

DEI remains an ill-defined term, but in Trumpland, it is applied with the subtext of “discriminating against whites,” combined with a vitriolic campaign against protesters who support Palestinian rights. Trump calls those protestors as “antisemitic.” The Trump administration has targeted public libraries, even within our military academies, with books that focus on historical minority group members depicted as heroes or present views inconsistent with proper evangelical Christian teachings… and those books have been removed by the thousands. Purging “antisemitism” is the justification for the cutting of federal funding and the insistence of direct federal approval of teaching materials, curriculum, admissions policies and personal information about any protestors or faculty members who support them.

Despite the fact that until Trump assumed office, official US policy supported Palestinian rights (and a two-state solution) for decades. But somehow, those protestors peacefully touting support for those Palestinian rights and against the violence in Gaza are “terrorists,” and any college or university that tolerates such protests, is labeled as antisemitic which justifies the federal actions noted above. The photograph above is of Jewish protestors who are firmly committed to free speech and do not want to be associated with the Trump crackdown. They do not want to be an excuse for the imposition of authoritarian “right thinking” and the repeal of true free speech.

Clamping down on law firms, universities and other institutions that have taken positions against Trump’s repressive anti-free speech policies (while insisting such efforts are somehow supporting free speech), seems to be taken out of the textbook of every authoritarian regime: Control thought, punish offenders harshly and quickly, and impose a uniform vision on everyone. There are no authoritarian regimes anywhere that tolerate open criticism of the incumbent government. Here’s how Dana Goldstein, writing for The Morning, April 17th, NY Times newsfeed summarizes the Trump position:

“The Trump administration has set out its case in a series of executive orders and memos. It believes that when schools allow transgender students to play on the sports teams or use the bathrooms of their choice, they are violating the rights of girls under Title IX. And it believes that D.E.I. programs violate the Civil Rights Act, which prevents discrimination based on race, color or national origin… The Trump administration has also argued that teaching about concepts like white privilege is discriminatory toward white students. Those concepts, however, are central to ethnic studies courses, which are increasingly common in K-12 schools in liberal states…

“And here lies a major paradox: For decades, many liberals have argued that the federal government should play a bigger role in K-12 education. They have called for national curriculum standards and greater financial support… Conservatives, including Trump, have often said that the federal government should allow states to chart their own educational paths… Now, however, the American tradition of local control of schools is what allows liberal states and districts to push back against a more muscular federal approach.” Positions totally reversed?

This toxic act of repression is now the cornerstone of the Department of Homeland Security/ Department of State immigration policies, particularly as applied to student visas… and, believe it or not, to conditions the Trump is demanding in exchange for good trade deals from our traditional allies. “Recent trade negotiations between the US and the UK require the government to make a tough decision. At a time when the British economy is in crisis – and its citizens in dire need of a boost – will [PM] Sir Keir Starmer choose to put economic value over and above the protection of British values such as truth, tolerance and diversity?

“As reported by The Independent , sources close to the US vice-president, JD Vance, have indicated that the British government will have to repeal its hate speech laws and protections for LGBT+ people in order to get a trade deal over the line – in the name of the Trump administration’s quest for ‘freedom of speech’… To my mind, this begs the bigger question of whether we are now in a position of accepting ‘hate speech’ as ‘freedom of speech’ – and whether this is really the only path to economic sustainability.” Zoe Kalar, writing for the April 16th The Independent. Given that Nazi and extreme rightwing propaganda are illegal in the European Union, is this going to be a part of our failing tariff policy with our EU allies too? Even mega-repressive China is beyond delighted.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the battles fought in the courts, the ability of the Supreme Court to implement its rulings, whether Congress will assert its constitutional mandate and whether the midterms will remain full and fair elections will determine whether the United States of America can claim to be a democracy… or whether even the USA can be crushed under its own internal repressive boot.

Forget About MAGA’s Toxic Masculinity, Women Are Giving Up on Marriage to Those Guys

 

Forget About MAGA’s Toxic Masculinity, Women Are Giving Up on Marriage to Those Guys

But Donald Trump Wants More Babies (White Bias, of Course)

‘If I need companionship, I volunteer at the dog shelter.’ 

a happy, single, Christina Ralstin.

[Trump is "proudly implementing policies to uplift American families… The president wants America to be a country where all children can safely grow up and achieve the American dream. As a mother myself, I am proud to work for a president who is taking significant action to leave a better country for the next generation." 

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt

"I want more happy children in our country, and I want beautiful young men and women who are eager to welcome them into the world and eager to raise them. And it is the task of our government to make it easier for young moms and dads to afford to have kids, to bring them into the world and to welcome them as the blessings that we know they are….

"We need a culture that celebrates life at all stages, one that recognizes and truly believes that the benchmark of national success is not our GDP number or our stock market but whether people feel that they can raise thriving and healthy families in our country," 

JD Vance at the January March for Life Rally

[Pursuing dating apps is] “the only thing you can put 10,000 hours into and end up right where you started.” 

 Katie Kirsch

The United States is a mixed bag for women. Still, there are more women university graduates and professional/graduate school enrollees than men. But the cost and inconvenience of having and raising children has produced the lowest birthrate in American history (about 1.6 live births per couple, where 2.1 is the replacement rate). “ The U.S. fertility rate dropped to a historic low in 2023, with 3,591,328 births recorded that year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Birth rates specifically declined for women ages 20 to 39 as rising health costs, economic concerns and child-bearing postponements have impacted the fertility rate, according to Time, which cited research from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.” Forbes, April 23rd. What a perfect time to eject immigrants who are necessary for our economy (but they’re not white!!!), cut medical programs, cut federal support for education as all levels, and make childcare even more prohibitively expensive. Good thimkin’, Mr Trump!

Having a child interferes with corporate promotion, the cost of childcare consumes most of lower-income wages, and the United States represents a toxic environment in which to raise children. The Trump/Musk model pushes “woke rejection,” but while may incent Trump voters, it actually creates a loser self-aggrandizement in the form of misogynist “toxic masculinity,” not particularly attractive to growing number of women. Is this Musk the model? “Musk, one of the president’s most senior advisers, has also encouraged Americans to have more children. Musk, a father of at least 14 children, has claimed civilization at large will collapse without an increase in children.” Forbes. Musk is actually doing more to collapse civilization with his cuts to medical and scientific research, social programs that actually support families and his generally anti-anyone who’s not rich attitude. Not to mention the possible impact of his Aspergers syndrome.

After clearly surveying the environment, an increasing number of women want nothing to do with marriage. Writing for the March 22nd Wall Street Journal, Rachel Wolfe tell it like it is: “American women have never been this resigned to staying single. They are responding to major demographic shifts, including huge and growing gender gaps in economic and educational attainment, political affiliation and beliefs about what a family should look like.

“‘The numbers aren’t netting out,’ said Daniel Cox, director of the survey center at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative think tank. He ticked off the data points: More women than men are attending college, buying houses and focusing on their friendships and careers over dating and marriage… Stories of women complaining about the lack of quality men have long infused pop culture—from ‘Pride and Prejudice’ to Taylor Swift’s oeuvre. Yet women throughout history rarely questioned whether finding and securing a romantic partner should be a primary goal of adulthood.

“This seems to be changing. Over half of single women said they believed they were happier than their married counterparts in a 2024 AEI survey of 5,837 adults. Just over a third of surveyed single men said the same… A 2022 Pew survey of single adults showed only 34% of single women were looking for romance, compared with 54% of single men, down from 38% and 61% in 2019. Men were also more likely than women to say they were worried that nobody would want to date them… A rise in earning power and a decline in the social stigma for being single has allowed more women to be choosy. ‘They would rather be alone than with a man who holds them back,’ Cox said…

“The share of women ages 18 to 40 who are single—that is, neither married nor cohabitating with a partner—was 51.4% in 2023, according to an analysis of census data by the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, up from 41.8% in 2000… These numbers don’t specify whether women are looking for love or swearing it off, but more-nuanced surveys show that single women appear less interested in getting married now than they used to be. They also seem less keen on getting hitched than their male peers.” In short, the US population will continue to decline, there will be a severe shortage for jobs at the bottom of the workforce, the cost of living will continue to soar, the number of workers needed to support increasing number of retirees will fall, and the number of local American consumers will drop. Trump has a plan… a bad one… but a plan.

What’s the Trump administration solution? Maybe $5,000 baby bonuses, easier admission to colleges, perhaps even high-level honors programs, and perhaps a cash bonus for mothers who have six or more children. That college thang is clearly tilted toward white mothers. Well, you tell me how exciting and attractive any of these incentives appear to you.

I’m Peter Dekom, and American values are changing big time, even the notion of marrying well or at least for love, and there is an increasing cost to pushing national policies that really scare too many younger Americans from even thinking about marrying and having children.

"Meh! No Big Deal"

 

“Meh! No Big Deal”

The Blasé MAGA Acceptance & Legitimization of Corruption and One-Man Rule

"Is the president expected to be an expert on all Supreme Court cases on that issue? I don't think so. I think he'll uphold the Constitution.” 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (a lawyer) and Trump Sycophant on Trump’s simplistic “ignorance” of his obligation to preserve and protect the Constitution, who also uttered the above title quote on that same subject.

"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States." 

The conformation oath required of every rising President of the United States, affirmed twice by Donald Trump.

"In our Constitution ... the judiciary is a coequal branch of government, separate from the others, with the authority to interpret the Constitution as law and strike down, obviously, acts of Congress or acts of the president… That innovation doesn't work if ... the judiciary is not independent." 

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, May 7th, a clear rebuke to the efforts by the Trump administration’s assertion that there are parts of the presidency that the Court cannot touch.

Let’s start with the big picture, the notion of one-man rule and the rejection of the notion that there are three co-equal branches of government. If you review the briefs filed by the Department of Justice in the deportation without due process cases, you will see repeated claims that the President’s mandates in this arena cannot be reviewed by the judicial branch of government, a rather blatant and obvious erroneous assertion that would obviously make the judicial branch of government subservient to the executive branch. This is a position rejected by every federal court that has ruled on the matter, including our Supreme Court. But the man who took the above inauguration oath twice pretends not to be aware of even the Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the Constitution, which have been with us since 1789 when enacted.

“Trump, while speaking with NBC’s Kristen Welker on Meet the Press, was asked whether he believes in upholding the Constitution when it comes to due process for migrants. Seems like a pretty straightforward question, right? Not for Trump. His response? A resounding ‘I don’t know,’ followed by a vague deferral to his ‘brilliant lawyers.’ Brilliant lawyers whose job, apparently, is to serve as human shields whenever Trump doesn’t feel like answering a question …

“According to Johnson, the President of the United States isn’t ‘expected’ to be an expert on the Constitution. The deepest irony in this constitutional comedy of errors is that both Trump and Johnson have routinely positioned themselves as the last defenders of the Constitution against liberal overreach… [MAGA Republicans have] wrapped themselves in constitutional reverence when it suits their purposes , only to plead constitutional ignorance when basic rights for vulnerable populations come into question. Johnson concluded his hallway constitutional seminar with the assurance that Trump would uphold the Constitution ‘as he’s demonstrated earlier.’ Which earlier demonstrations might those be? His careful respect for congressional oversight? His peaceful acceptance of election results as outlined in the Constitution?” We Got this Covered, May 7th. Most government officials, elected or appointed, are aware of at least the Bill of Rights without the need to consult “brilliant lawyers.”

But even as European nations continue to refine their ethical requirements and restrictions on graft and corruption involving government officials, the United States seems to be tripping all over itself, going in precisely the opposite direction. Today, we can see directives from the President mandating that government agencies, notably his own personal law firm (as he puts it), the Department of Justice, against enforcing a whole host of statutes and regulations from the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (preventing US-based persons and firms from bribing foreign officials) to violations of many stocks and other securities restrictions and environmental rules.

We “wink-wink” at Supreme Court justices accepting lavish gifts and luxurious vacations from parties with frequent cases (or relevant precedents) before the Court… with no consequences. We seem to ignore Trump’s assigning one of the nation’s largest government contractors (Elon Musk and his controlled companies) to supervise the culling and replacement of government contractors, oddly resulting in Musk’s holdings solidifying and expanding their governmental contractor services while replacing or excluding their competitors. Starlink, anyone?

But the mother of all tolerated corruption – beyond Trump’s use of his office to promote Bible and clothing/sneaker sales or touting Musk’s Teslas on White House grounds – is the litany of ways for foreign powers and American oligarchs to increase Trump-and-family’s wealth: Trump hotels and resorts where they elect to stay, Florida-based and publicly-traded Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG) (which owns Trump’s Truth Social website) where investors can raise Trump’s personal net worth by buying shares, where Trump companies negotiate for favorable access to extraordinarily valuable overseas properties on which to build Trump hotels and resorts… with favored foreign governments, and most recently, the Trump efforts to support his and his family’s crypto assets by adding the legitimacy of the US government as it creates its own cryptocurrencies reserve. Yes, that same cryptocurrency that Trump once labeled a “sham.”

Much the way Trump claimed never to have looked at the Project 2025 agenda, before he began sequentially issuing executive order to implement its mandate, Trump claims not to have looked at his family’s efforts to build a crypto currency behemoth: “The official website for Trump's meme coin invited its top 220 investors to an ‘intimate private dinner’ with the president later this month, with a ‘VIP White House Tour’ offered to the top 25 holders. References to the White House were later scrubbed from the website… World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's crypto venture, announced that an Emirati state-backed venture fund would use World Liberty's new stablecoin to complete a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance.” Axios, May 7th. As Democrats in Congress pushed for new legislation restricting and banning such conduct, Republicans pushed back. How many US presidents have made themselves gobs of wealth from their activities from their time in office? Feel good about that?

But seminal decisions from the Supreme Court, from the 2024 presidential immunity decision in Trump vs US to the 2010 uncapping SuperPAC political contributions in Citizens United vs FEC, contributed to the legitimization of governmental corruption. Indeed, as developed democracies were pushing for greater voting rights, more restricted periods for permitted campaign activities and limitations on campaign contributions – efforts aimed at reducing graft, corruption and the ability of the rich to “buy elections” – Citizens United and a series of the decisions supporting efforts to limit voting rights moved the United States in the opposite direction, leading the prestigious UK periodical, The Economist, to label the United States as a “flawed democracy.” That description was further reinforced by so many events that followed: the cries of a “stolen election” and the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol followed by a 2025 pardon of even the most violent perpetrators by Donald Trump, to name a few. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and I am appalled at this rapid erosion of the rule of law in this country, supported by so many rightwing powers yearning for a white nationalist autocracy with massive benefits for connected oligarchs.

Supply Chain, Chain, Chain of Fools

 

Supply Chain, Chain, Chain of Fools

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

“Europe has not started this confrontation… We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.” 

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen

You can tell that the proposed Trump tariff scheme had three clear underlying philosophies: 1. Obfuscate the numbers, 2. Maximize fear/bully power. 3. Even if it is just a slapdash litany of angry numbers, let the nations impacted retaliate so we can rally American voters around that. Even as Trump has suggested that American companies will make more here and that foreign manufacturers will relocate here, for companies (at least those with the highest wage rates) to manufacture, it does not help that their raw materials and secondary modular add-ins (often patented) are still being imported. Not to mention the years it takes to build or retrofit factories. Prices will continue to rise, and the probability of a near-term recession or worse (like stagflation) increased very quickly, from 40% to 60%+.

Trump hates numbers that make him look bad. So, for example, the Department of Commerce is already twisting an alternative to our GDP measurement, the Treasury is suggesting that expired or expiring tax rates which are renewed must not be counted as tax increases. The Trump administration continues to believe that tariffs are not “taxes.” A very lonely perspective. The above formula, where the variables are not clearly identified, is how they determined the “effective” tariff rate. The numerator seems to deal with trade imbalance, and the denominator addresses the tariff differential. But since tariffs are often set, product-by-product, the numbers used for Trump’s giant billboard from hell are of necessity deeply flawed and wildly in accurate. The Trump pattern to deal with facts he doesn’t like is to simply ignore those and substitute its own calculations as “truth.” “Fake news” is now the only Trumpian “truth”!

Back in Trump 1.0, in September of 2019, Trump tweeted that Hurricane Dorian would ultimately slam into Alabama. The National Weather Service immediately pointed out that Trump was incorrect, but he repeatedly doubled down, going so far as to add his black-line Sharpie “enhancement” (look carefully at Trump’s add above) to the NWS map to add Alabama (it was still on the Gulf of Mexico in those days) to the danger zone. Trump even presented his “enhanced map” in a public showing in the Oval Office. The same NWS that DOGE is slicing today, was right then… and usually is… saving farmers, travelers, pilots and navigators and their people they impact billions of dollars… not to mention lots of lives. From changes at RFK Jr’s HHS, to the cut off of USAID medicine and food to starving millions overseas to cutbacks at OSHA and a willingness to ship documented and undocumented aliens from the US to life-threatening detention in El Salvador without due process if they have tattoos the ICE doesn’t like.

Americans have seriously benefitted from less expensive manufactures from overseas market, almost as foreign nations were subsidizing US consumers. Let’s face it, Europe has a lot of cool stuff, from designer fashions to cars and unique food products that taste the way they do because the soil, climate and location of where they were grown. Trump wants to force Americans to buy local substitutes, which can be radically different from the imports they replace. Example: “cheese” is not a uniform product.

Unfortunately, Trump always believes that he not only is the smartest person in the room, he seems to have expanded that belief, first to the United States… and now… world. Yet he seems to have derived his belief in the efficacy of tariffs from “tariff guru” Peter Navarro, who seems to have been recommended by Jared Kushner based on his online search for books touting tariffs. Navarro was thus selected. Suspicion has recently mounted against “expert” economist, Ron Vara, whom no one seems to be able to find… but is frequently cited by Navarro for “factual” support. Was Ron Vara simply an anagram derived from Navarro? Uh oh! The same Peter Navarro who served four months at the Federal Correctional Institute in Miami after a contempt conviction?

Trump’s overall vector is to demand personal fealty to him from every federal employee, even if there is unequivocal hard evidence to the contrary. That, and generating one of most massive, deficit busting tax cuts for the mega-rich while cutting programs for the rest of us, directly threatening Social Security (wink, wink, “we are not touching existing benefits”), Medicare, Medicaid, VA hospital staffing. etc. Retribution is priority number one! Death is acceptable collateral damage.

After the plunge of trillions dollars of US shares value after the tariffs were announced, US stock markets continued in free fall in the days beyond, but Trump enjoyed several rounds of golf (of America?). Ignoring an almost unanimous voice to the contrary from the major economists in the world, Trump smugly reassured Americans that a big payoff was just around the corner. Prices continued to soar. Millions of Americans protested all across the country on April 5th.

Trump felt secure as the business world and cowering law firms stayed silent, but there was one huge surprise “financial bazooka” that the European Union could deploy against the US banking and financial services sector, one of our most profitable areas… and lots of that activity does involve Europe… in a huge way. So if the US and EU do not reach a tariff accord, what exactly that that “bazooka”? Stuart Dyos, writing for the April 3rd Fortune.com, explains: “That plan could involve the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), allowing the bloc to place market limitations on service companies that could hit American tech or Wall Street. Put in place in 2023, the ACI allows the bloc to respond to coercion through diplomatic means by any retaliatory measure necessary like import or export restrictions or limitations on access to the European market…

“‘It’s called the big bazooka,’ Fabrizio Pagani, a partner at the investment bank Vitale and a former top economic official in Italy, told DealBook. ‘I personally think the big bazooka should be used first of all as a deterrent. So put it on the table, and let’s negotiate,’ Pagani said.

“According to a preliminary plan obtained by DealBook, in response to tariffs, the EU officials have brought up the possibility of implementing ACI to limit American banks’ ability to access the bloc’s public procurements market, essentially barring banks from projects worth $2.18 trillion each year . Additionally, the plan suggested targeting the roughly $327.02 billion annual flow of European investment into American companies… ‘It’s more the nuclear option,’ global economist for ING Carsten Brzeski told the New York Times... Use of the instrument could escalate the trade war and some experts believe this would further impact consumers.” You mean like Meta, Google, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Goldman Sacks, Bank of America, etc.? And I know why Trump is attacking our finest universities: no matter the DEI excuse, they teach economics, physics, history, engineering… what we affectionately call “facts.” Folks who cannot be fooled are not Trump’s buddies.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I am still puzzled at what Trump’s grades at Wharton (University of Pennsylvania) must have been to result in the unconscionable babble that emanates from the Orange Man himself.

They Hate Us… and They’re Right

Canadians? No, Americans!

They Hate Us… and They’re Right

O Canada, glorious and free!

O Canada, we stand on guard, we stand on guard for thee.

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

”They defile the sacrifices of Canadian soldiers on a hundred battlefields around the world where they fought and died for freedom. They kept the peace often side-by- side with their American brothers and sisters in arms.” 

Steve Schmidt, Canadian journalist

Now we know what they are guarding against. One of the problems in dealing with a delusional American President seeking to find a positive legacy somewhere is that he is, well, delusional. He liked Greenland because it was big… and then he looked up and saw Canada, it was even bigger and richer in… immigrants with advanced degrees in science, medicine and engineering that couldn’t get into the United States, most certainly not with their families. That American tech companies were moving their research centers to regions of Canada, rife with glorious universities, very high standards of living, universal healthcare and massive safety nets for the disabled and elderly… speaks loudly on investors looking to future growth. Tenured professors at major American universities, under assault by an education-averse Donald Trump, are accepting faculty positions in Canada. Hey, Donald, what were your grades after daddy bought you an undergraduate spot at Wharton? We all figured out that you must have missed all your economics classes!

Given that the United States had a glorious past (e.g., pre-Trump), Canadians figure that they can learn how to live with a whole lot less trade with its enemy to the south, and besides, China is sending a team of trade representatives to see if they can make up the difference. Because with the United States taking itself out of the game, at least Canada has a glorious future waiting for her. California has always been very open to Canadians, especially in our local entertainment community, and Canada might as well add an 11th province in Palm Springs… except they are selling their homes there and returning to the motherland… because California is part of the United States. Hollywood even likes to shoot TV series “up there.” Except soon, the Canadian dollar soon will be too strong against its American counterpart.

Hey, we always wanted to join with our other west coast brethren in the US – we call the combination “Cascadia,” and become part of the Canadian Commonwealth. But Canadians are cancelling trips to the United States, even routing connecting trips that use to entail a stop here, by taking even longer routes to avoid the good old USA. As US NHL teams fly north to play Canadian teams, they are getting used to the boos during the playing of our national anthem. The reverse does not happen, because most Americans think the Canadians are correct in their taunts.

Well, we know one political faction in Canada that is grateful for Trump’s election interference: newly-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose road to victory was based primarily on Trump’s 51st state annexation dreams. Carney stated that Canada will enter trade and security talks with the US on "our terms", has said. Following an election set against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's tariffs and musings about making Canada the 51st state, Carney said that he would only pay his southern neighbor a visit when there is a ‘serious discussion to be had.’ How do I break it to him that Plump Trump will revel in “alternative fact” driven narcissism long before he even contemplates anything “serious.” Even the vast majority of the American electorate rolls their eyes at the thought of an American invasion of Canada. The closest Canada gets to MAGA ignorance may be the oil rich prairie provinces. The only shooting war likely to take place between the US and Canada will probably entail hockey pucks.

In the meantime, American-made products have been quickly removed from retail shelves, and it is considered near-treasonous for a Canadian to buy anything made in the US. But if you speak with most Americans about Canada and Canadians, there is a warm glow that emanates almost immediately. We like them; we really like them!!! Trump has this bizarre notion that any nation that gives US consumers a good deal is “ripping us off”… no, Donald, a “bad” trade imbalance only means we got everything on sale!!

Robert Gillies, writing for the April 29th Los Angeles Times, explains how big mouth Trump completely changed the course of the recent Canadian elections: “Pierre Poilievre, a [conservative] firebrand who campaigned with Trump-like bravado, had hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.

“But then Trump became the dominant issue, and Poilievre’s similarities to the bombastic president seemed to be costing him support… ‘He appeals to the same sense of grievance,’ Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. ‘It’s like Trump standing there saying, ‘I am your retribution.’ ’… Bothwell added: ‘The Liberals ought to pay him. Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.’… Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.” Sigh. Funny, I like ice hockey, have seats for the Los Angeles Kings, our local NHL franchise and even represent a number of folks born in Canada. And I can do a mean Canadian accent both in English and Quebecois (it ain’t French!). “Banh sur, J’erray dan mon char maintenan, eh?”

I’m Peter Dekom, and if I were younger, and Trumpism were the long-term expected law of the land, I would have to think seriously about going north to watch hockey… and live the American dream in Canada, where it is still possible.

Not for Sale Ever!

 

Not for Sale Ever!

"There are some places that are never for sale ... having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign, it's not for sale. It won't be for sale ever." 

Newly-elected Canadian PM, Marc Carney, to Donald Trump

“Kalaallit Nunaat [the Greenlandic name] is ours… We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes; We are Kalaallit. The Americans and their leader must understand that. We are not for sale and cannot simply be taken. Our future will be decided by us in Greenland.” Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Bourup Egede

I admit that I am a major hockey fan. I have season seats at the Crypto Arena (yes, I hate that name) to watch the Los Angeles NHL franchise (the Kings) with American, Swiss, Swedish, Russian, Slovenian and a lot of Canadian players, working together. With the tensions with Russia and Trump’s outlandish claim that Canada should be the 51st state and that the border separating us is artificial (aren’t most borders artificial?), I wonder how those players living and playing in the United States feel about effectively playing for an “enemy” nation. I know how I feel: embarrassed and angry, over Canada, an ally, a friendly, welcoming nation and a great trading partner. Trump wants their natural resources, sounding a familiar refrain over his desire to buy/annex Greenland, a Danish territory.

Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Bourup Egede, presides over a vast land, a Danish territory, with under 60,000 people. But Donald Trump, apparently using spies to undermine local opposition, is enjoying his aspirational role as a neo-colonialist and sees that frozen land as essential for our national security. Could it be to perfect control over the opening of the Northwest Passage – a shortcut for shipping as the Arctic melts? Or is it the trillions of gallons of oil, a comparable stash of natural gas (drill-baby-drill?) and a massive repository of much-cherished rare earths (did-baby-dig?). Short of invasion, which I doubt Congress would ever permit assuming the United States remains a representative democracy, both Greenland and Canada are likely to remain very much independent of the United States.

But since Canada is on the front burner in the heated tariff war, and because Canadian PM, an elected liberal who owes his victory to the fierce opposition of his entire constituency to Trump’s threats and entreaties, met with Trump in the oval office on May 6th, today’s blog will focus on that embroglio. It is clear that both Canada and the United States need to reach a modus vivendi, but it is difficult to understand how Canada’s supplying American consumers (business and otherwise) products and natural resources that we wanted at affordable prices constitutes our being “ripping off for decades,” a completely unsupportable Trump claim.

Looking our aggregate purchase price (the “trade deficit”), without looking at the value of the goods, received seems unbalanced and meaningless. Further, focusing on goods versus goods and services also seems fairly lopsided, when the United States is primarily a service economy with only strong agricultural and industrial/military manufactures as hard good exports. The proper analysis is “trade balance” in which the money expended in buying foreign goods is balanced by the value of those goods purchased. And regardless of what Trump claims, there is no evidence of a trade imbalance under that metric. Further, the manufactures Trump seeks to reshore are incapable of being produced at remotely a competitive price. We would be wasting money building factories, which take years to build and put online anyway, to make the TV screens, plastic toys and smart phones that will NEVER be competitively priced.

But what was fascinating about the Trump/Carney meeting is: 1. Carney so outclassed Trump in a mild and subtle way that it was a profound embarrassment to look at the stumbling Trump searching for a response and 2. they did not even try to lay the groundwork for a revised trade agreement. I must say it is hard to balance Carney’s expertise, a Harvard undergrad in economics (summa cum laude), a Doctor of Philosophy from Oxford (economics), 13 years at Goldman Sachs, Governor of the Bank of Canada, Governor of the Bank of England, etc., etc. before becoming Prime Minister of… against Trump, a Wharton undergraduate, who never revealed his grades there. My guess he did not fare well in economics.

To this day, despite an almost uniform understanding by most credible economists, Trump has refused to acknowledge to anyone that tariffs are effective a tax paid by importers and shared by consumers. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would not provide a clear answer to a congressman who asked in a committee hearing, “Who pays the tariff?” To the rest of the world, it is obvious. As the container traffic at all the Los Angeles harbors (the main ports for Chinese imports) is dropping like a stone, as consumer prices are already rising in anticipation of an ultimate tariff resolution, it is obvious to most people.

To make matter more complex, there is this trade agreement negotiated by Trump 1.0, that Trump touted as the greatest trade agreement ever, that already exists. “The Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada (USMCA) is a free trade agreement among the United States, Mexico, and Canada, in effect from July 1, 2020. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) implemented in 1994, and is sometimes characterized as ‘NAFTA 2.0’, or ‘New NAFTA’, since it largely maintains or updates the provisions of its predecessor.” Wikipedia. So, to abrogate that treaty to create a new installment with Canada probably requires Mexico’s assent. That Trump has unilaterally abrogated this and many more treaties, many of which have been ratified by Congress, is another metric of Trump’s ignoring the other “co-equal” branches of constitutional governance.

And there’s this other detail: Trump only has a right to use unilateral power to set tariffs only in an “emergency.” But since Trump is setting tariffs for the entire world, what kind of suddenly new global emergency is there? After all, the tariffs are now global. California has challenged Trump in recent litigation: “The lawsuit argues that President Trump lacks the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs against Mexico, China, and Canada or create an across-the-board 10% tariff. The President’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact tariffs is unlawful and unprecedented.

“The IEEPA gives the President authority to take certain actions if he declares a national emergency in response to a foreign national security, foreign policy, or economic threat. The law, which was enacted by Congress in 1977, specifies many different actions the President can take, but tariffs aren’t one of them. In fact, this is the first time a president has attempted to rely on this law to impose tariffs.” Gov. Gavin Newsom Newsletter, April 16th.

I think Trump just might like to lose that suit. It would give two him immediate benefits: 1. A way out of his disastrous tariff policy decision that is already a failure. And 2. It would give him another reason to rail against California and liberals in general. Whatever is said and done, Canada looks noble, and its representation is exceptional. By contrast, the US position is absurd, and Trump plays the fool.

I’m Peter Dekom, and while many believe we should just let Trump and his band of merry MAGA congresspeople continue to destroy their own credibility with voters, I would prefer that we stop that effort and save the nation from economic harm that may well be irreversible.

Banana Republic Marxism for America, Trump Style

 

A House Constructed of Lies, Mythology and Fabrications Cannot Stand

Unfounded Conspiracy Theories Can Destroy

I rely heavily on the notions of the lessons of history, notably 19th-century philosopher George Santayana’s admonition: “Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat its mistakes.” That said, the Dekom twist on this seeming historical axiom is that the story human evolution over time – “history,” if you will – is not purely cyclical; it is recurring circular patterns within a spiral where the vector of the spiral is determined by seminal changes: from the printing press and gunpowder to space exploration and climate change.

The agents of change can be as basic as inadvertently spreading European diseases to kill off indigenous peoples in the Americas or the passionate Christian belief in noblesse oblige – a French phrase meaning the obligation of nobility to act honorably and generously – when misapplied over the centuries, allowed white Europeans to hold an air of superiority above and against dark skinned peoples (often described as “heathen”) in soon-to-be European colonies in Africa, the Americas and Asia.

The result was resource-driven exploitation that made European monarchies rich and powerful in direct proportion to their willingness to apply forced labor (mostly slavery but including other repressive forms of subjugation) to pillage the Americas of gold, silver, spices, slaves and new varieties of crops from tomatoes and any variety of peppers, corn, and later oil and materials used in basic construction. Europeans grew fat and powerful based on those cheap imports.

As much as we shudder at the use of slaves to build what would later become the United States of America, the Spanish use of slaves in the 16th and 17th centuries to rape Mexico (which included much of what would become our West and Southwest) and Peru was exponentially worse. Until so much gold and silver was extracted so as to deplete the easy access, indigenous people crushed by disease and then-modern force of arms were joined by black Africans to work mines and fields at for free or subsistence living. Many died and suffered horribly in that effort.

Soon thereafter, those who had conquered those lands, occasionally joined by local intermarried peoples of differing races, began to resist Mother Spain and seek freedom from Spain’s insistence of paying relatively negligible sums, even to their ex-pat Spaniards, for the resources that had made them rich. But it was the ability of Europeans to extract extreme value from their colonies at remarkably low cost that propelled those of white European culture and ethnicity into the mega-wealth of modernity. See any parallels in the growth of the United States, particularly post-WW2? A strong dollar versus most of the rest of the world, even including Europe, struggling to rebuild after global devastation. We bought those cheap foreign goods in huge volumes.

Sure, Marshall plan helped accelerate that recovery, but bottom line, that muscular dollar allowed the United States to import natural resources and manufactures based on cheap labor for a pittance of what replicating those efforts (if even possible) at home. Post-WW2 America was a period of massive subsidized higher learning, housing support and the growth of our own consumer-driven economy, driven by a new era of clever marketing for Americans to buy more than they needed, to “keep up with the Joneses.” “Mad Men” on steroids.

Nobody in that era screamed at those supplier nations, “You are ripping us off with your cheap products! You are killing our local jobs!” We were enjoying amping up our standard of living, migrating the bulk of our jobs out of the “dirty” world of farming and resource extraction (notably Texas crude) into the clean and massively more lucrative service economy. Migrants (quasi-slavery) proliferated in local US agriculture as technology (service-based) improved that industry such that less than 2% of our labor force worked the fields while agribusiness exported 20% of its aggregate output to massive profitability. Engineering, creative intellectual property, mastering the global financial infrastructure and academically driven innovation now generated 80% of our jobs and created the effective American hegemony over the global trading structure. With cheap imports, we simply migrated most of our new jobs into new and more profitable sectors.

The result was unavoidable: a sweeping global trend, conspiracy theory believing masses, and the autocrats who used the coattails of this populist movement to tell those masses that all that we had benefitted from was bad. Ignorant leaders, promulgating toxic fabrications, became the excellent purveyors of blame. The great mobility/productivity accelerators, the truly greatest job creators in American history, higher education and skill training were a cast as elites exploiting traditional working-class Americans, a notion that was seemingly confirmed in the increasing globalization of all levels of trade. While there was some truth in some of that assessment – we did not educate those displaced with new skills – there was the harsh reality that those who did not meld with the times would be left behind. The world is competitive. As we demean the true job creators – primarily sophisticated training and higher education – we decimate our competitive advantage. We are never going to recapture our manufacturing past… nor should we want to. Our competitors, notably China, are ramping up such training and higher education.

Why this exploration of the past? Because the Western powers got rich and powerful by exploiting foreign regions to secure economic benefits at levels that had never been seen before. Cheap goods were had by the white Western world’s exploitation of regions willing (or forced) to provide their minerals, fossil fuels, agricultural products and manufacturers to those colonial powers at unbelievably low cost. I do not recall those Western nations excoriating these nations providing such values at bargain rates as “ripping the colonial powers off.” Those “trade imbalances” provided nothing but underlying inexpensive imports that made those Western colonial powers thrive, reveling in wealth that would make even Scrooge McDuck blush.

The notion of simply examining the dollars spent on foreign goods as a toxic balance of payments deficit is colossally inaccurate. There is an offset that is missing: the value of the goods received. And when that trade deficit is only measured in the value of tangible goods, when the bulk of our international revenues (and 80% of our non-governmental jobs) are generated from our service sector, the distortion is magnified exponentially. In short, Donald Trump’s obsessive-compulsive belief in the glory of massive tariffs is one more massively big lie from the Father of Toxic Mendacity.

Trump had to dig into the ash-heap of economic outliers, based on an online search by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, for a potentially “credible author” on the subject of the benefits of major tariffs. That bizarre and somewhat random search produced Peter Navarro (pictured above), a Harvard-educated conspiracy theory spouting economist who has been the President’s basis for his own misplaced belief in tariffs. Jailed for contempt, derided by most of the primary economists in the nation, Navarro is and was Trump’s slender thread to justify that massive deployment of tariffs would produce major government revenues to reduce the deficit, fix that magical term “trade deficit” and reshore traditional levels of manufacturing to our rust belt and beyond. All lies. And still, Trump tells us that those nations providing us with inexpensive goods, which we could never manufacture here at anything near an affordable price, as “ripping us off for decades.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and as the nation’s economy unravels to a level that may never be restored, I wish we had educated people running our nation because: “Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat its mistakes.”