A Weapon of Miss-Direction

  

A Weapon of Miss-Direction

An Oxymoron: Trump National Intelligence Team?

“I’m not looking to fight… But if it’s a choice between fighting and having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do… [Later] I may do it, I may not do it… I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” Trump to reporters on June 18th.

Iran has played havoc with several US presidents since its 1979 Islamic revolution: Jimmy Carter’s failed US hostage rescue, Reagan’s Iran Contra-Affair and Trump’s own 2018 termination of the nuclear enrichment accord (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPA), the latter despite clear and convincing evidence from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Trump’s military and intelligence advisors and later, even from the Israeli intelligence office… that Iran was in full compliance with that accord. Notorious for not reading intelligence briefings and basing his opinion on his gut and the pressures from his loyalists, Trump’s cabinet and subcabinet level appointments, who are woefully and profoundly unqualified to provide meaningful input on international security matters, are of no help whatsoever.

Furthermore, MAGA is clearly split between isolationists believing in Trump’s pledge for “no more foreign wars” and pro-Israeli hawks sensing a unique opportunity to denuclearize Iran once and for all. Iran may not have those weapons yet, but its massively accelerated enrichment program teeters on the edge of having a successful nuclear warhead… possibly delivered by Iran’s modern missile fleet. But Trump’s strategy is both unfathomable and seemingly ill-devised.

After all, who in their right mind (???) would demand “unconditional surrender” from a religiously validated leader in a totalitarian theocracy, who has never compromised on anything since the JCPA, when we are not even at war with that nation? If the Ayatollah Khomeini had accepted that demand, exactly what would the US do next? Threats, direct and suggested, to kill the Ayatollah, an old man in bad health, would, if implemented, only serve to create a new Shiite martyr who would simply reignite even stiffer opposition from the remaining religious rulers. Instead of a more studied and carefully crafted “all options are on the table” public statement, Trump opted for the most inflammatory and least likely to succeed surrender demand.

Trump’s third-rate advisors were in disarray. His Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was sidelined, presumably based on her consistent statement against the US involvement in another war in the Middle East. Pete Hegseth, fresh after going out of his arrogant way of alienating members of a congressional committee with his “cute, smart ass” evasive answers, was hardly the obvious go-too strategic advisor to anyone on whether the US should preemptively attack Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear sites. His incompetence is so clearly evident.

The most obvious military target, Fordo in northern Iran, was apparently an intentionally deep underground nuclear-development bunker: 300 feet according to experts. As the only nation possessing both the necessary “bunker buster” bomb (a multilevel, titanium-tipped massive 30,000 lbs. GBU-57 bomb) and the bomber (the stealth B-2) capable of carrying that load, the United States is uniquely positioned to deploy the only weapon capable of targeting and destroying such deep underground bunkers.

But there is a litany of catches, starting with the technical capability of the bomb itself. The GBU-57 bomb has a listed capability of 200 feet, which can explain why Iran’s bunker is 300 feet underground. That would require more than one well-aimed strike of a deeper bunker. Most probably, the air wing that would escort multiple B-2s carrying their explosive cargo would include top-of-the-line fighter protection, electronic anti-missile detection and destruction aircraft, refueling tankers, etc. While air superiority has clearly been established by the Israeli Air Force, there is always the threat that Iran has kept weapon systems in reserve to repel such an effort.

But even in success, the costs are unpredictable and potentially globally economically devastating. Iran has always maintained that it has deployed clandestine sleeper cells, well-trained and well-armed, all over the world, waiting for a signal from Tehran to unleash carefully planned attacks… against their enemies’ civilian and military targets with a heavy emphasis on essential infrastructure.

We have witnessed the increased deployment of cheap, Iranian-made drones by Russia in its war in Ukraine… drones (matched with Russian missiles) that can be sent in massive, indefensible waves. That the US has added an aging aircraft carried (the USS Nimitz pictured above) to its regional command is interesting… because that ship was destined to be retired next year. But the real shock to the system would be Iran’s shutting down the Red Sea gateway to the Suez Canal, a global trade route that is essential particularly to Europe. The Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 12% of global trade and 30% of global container traffic pass through the Suez Canal, annually transporting over $1 trillion worth of goods. The economic consequences of making that canal inaccessible would be staggering.

The obvious main Iranian weapon would be mines, and many experts believe that Iran has already deployed a “mine field in waiting,” on the sea floor, ready to be launched at the flip of a switch. The array of available Iranian mines is impressive: “Iran is believed to maintain a variety of naval mines. They include small limpet mines containing just a few pounds of explosives that swimmers place directly on a ship’s hull and typically detonate after a set amount of time. Iran also has larger moored mines that float just under the water’s surface, releasing a hundred pounds of explosive force or more when they come in contact with an unsuspecting ship.

“More advanced ‘bottom’ mines sit on the seafloor. They use a combination of sensors — such as magnetic, acoustic, pressure and seismic — to determine when a ship is nearby and explode with hundreds of pounds of explosive force.

“The Navy has four minesweepers in the Persian Gulf, each with 100 sailors aboard who have been based in Bahrain and are trained in how to deal with underwater hazards. Should Iran place mines in the Strait of Hormuz or other parts of the Persian Gulf, a small Navy contingent in Bahrain called Task Force 56 would respond… Usually led by a senior explosive ordnance disposal officer, the task force would take advantage of technologies like autonomous underwater vehicles that can scan the seafloor with sonar much more quickly than the last time Iranian mines threatened the strait.

“And while the Navy has been experimenting with underwater robots to destroy mines, the task force will still need to deploy small teams of explosive ordnance disposal divers for the time-consuming and dangerous task of approaching each mine underwater and carefully placing charges to destroy it.” New York Times, June 16th. The release of those hidden mines could be sequential, and it wouldn’t take much to shut down the Strait. Even a delay would be costly. Mr Trump, already despised by many leaders in what are traditionally supposed to be our allies, could just preside over a huge global economic catastrophe. Some legacy… and he knows that. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and Trump’s massively unprepared administration has clumsily boxed itself into a thoroughly incomprehensible diplomatic situation with no obvious off-ramps… even if the existing regime topples as hoped.