We’ve See Fire and We’ve Seen Rain
The death and destruction in Central Texas have been devastating. While the area is prone to some flooding, that area has seen almost four months’ worth of rain in a day. “Most of the deaths confirmed so far [well over 100], including 28 children, were in Kerr County, where a girls' summer camp was inundated by flood waters. There, the Guadalupe River rose by 26ft (8m) within 45 minutes. The San Gabriel River also burst its banks, with drone footage showing the devastation in Georgetown.” BBC.com, July 7th. Or, as the July 7th Newsweek puts it: “The flooding of the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, about 50 miles outside San Antonio, was astounding in its speed: 26 feet in less than an hour. Four months’ worth of rain in a couple of hours. In the dead of night. In an area with spotty cell service. A true recipe for disaster. The system that dropped so much water didn't come out of nowhere; it was the remnants of a tropical storm. Which is to say, the National Weather Service was not caught off guard, they saw it coming even if they may not have been able to predict the ferocity of the rains.”
Meanwhile, in fire prone California, as of this writing, the Madre Fire, the largest in the state so far (80,000 acres and expanding), began Wednesday (July 2nd) in the Los Padres National Forest, federally managed land area in Central California. The blaze prompted evacuation orders, warnings and highway closures in residential San Luis Obispo County about 100 miles north of Los Angeles. Kern County has also experienced various levels of evacuations.
So, as you read this, you would hardly guess that today’s blog is really about water shortages. Half of America’s water basins are at risk, and millions of acres of forests and productive agricultural land join regional big cities in the “Big Parch” of roiling desertification. When needed rains do come, the land has often been dried out as hard as a ceramic bowl; instead of soaking the earth, that rainwater aggregates and follows the contours of the land it then floods.
All this in a country that is winding down FEMA, thus shoving disaster relief to underfunded states, and one that just slashed the budget for alternative energy to favor BIG OIL and BIG COAL. Religious leaders and MAGA Republicans write all this “natural disaster stuff” off as “normal seasonal changes” or simply “bad weather.” Or, “until the rest of the world cleans up their act, we cannot afford to lead any of these climate initiatives that challenge our nations’ biggest industries.” But we are reaching desperation when it comes to water supplies to major cities (impacting hydroelectric power generation too), including urban areas where you might least expect that to occur. Sure, there are a few bandages that are holding in places like Las Vegas. As that population added half a million new residents, water restrictions and massive water recycling have produced an annual 20% reduction in water use. But as Matthias Binder, M.Sc., points out in the July 6th Climate Cosmos, these serious water shortages are spreading, soon to shock cities that never thought “it could never happen here”:
“The Colorado River Basin is experiencing the worst drought in recorded history, with snowfall and runoff into the basin well below normal since 2000. The elevation of Lake Mead has dropped more than 150 feet since 2000, marking an unprecedented decline in what was once America’s largest reservoir. The Secretary of the Interior made the first-ever shortage declaration in 2021, triggering mandatory water restrictions for millions of Americans. The cumulative volume of lost runoff water during the historic drought of 2000 to 2021 was approximately equal to the full capacity of Lake Mead. If the reservoir drops below 895 feet, it is considered a ‘dead pool’ condition, which will jeopardize the Hoover Dam’s ability to provide electricity – leaving nearly 1.3 million people in Arizona, California, and Nevada without power…
“Although California’s drought has eased in recent years, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions still reign in the north, affecting 54 counties as of July 2024, with the state also seeing its 14th driest June on record since 1895. Reports also show California is running out of groundwater as basins remain seriously depleted, accounting for approximately 41% of the state’s water supply…
“[Despite the horrific recent floods in central Texas, by] one estimate, the state’s municipal supply will not meet demand by 2030 if there’s a severe drought and no water solutions are implemented. Towns and cities could be on a path toward a severe shortage of water by 2030, data compiled in the state’s 2022 water plan by the Texas Water Development Board indicates, if there is recurring, record-breaking drought conditions across the state. Lake Travis — the largest reservoir supplying Austin — was only 38% full in January 2024, down from 80% full in January 2022. South Texas is significantly impacted, as Lower Rio Grande reservoirs dropped from 33% to 23% full from 2023 to 2024, with a repeat of these conditions potentially resulting in lower water supplies than ever…
“Florida could face a significant water supply shortage as early as 2025, according to projections from the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), with the situation worsening through 2040. In the General Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2024–2025, there were 281 water-related member projects identified by Florida TaxWatch as budget “turkeys” (totaling $410.3 million). The state’s continued rapid economic and population growth underscores the need for a consistent, comprehensive and coordinated statewide strategy for funding water projects. This represents a shocking reversal for a state traditionally known for its abundant water resources…
“‘The American West is certainly in a water crisis,’ according to Reed Maxwell, a professor and researcher at Princeton University, with ‘the decadal pattern for continual aridification in the West,’ which means the West keeps getting drier and hotter. It’s being amplified by human-induced climate change. The conditions in the American west, which we’re seeing around the Colorado River basin, have been so dry for more than 20 years that ‘we’re no longer speaking of a drought,’ said Lis Mullin Bernhardt, an ecosystems expert at the United Nations. The rapid water loss in snowpack regions is a sign that the Rocky Mountain West is transitioning to a more arid climate rather than simply undergoing periodic droughts…
“Of all the freshwater basins that channel rain and snow into the rivers from which we draw the water we rely on for everything from drinking and cooking to washing and cleaning, nearly half may be unable to meet consumers’ monthly demands by 2071, meaning serious water shortages for Americans. Shortages won’t affect only the regions we’d expect to be dry: with as many as 96 out of 204 basins in trouble, water shortages would impact most of the U.S., including the central and southern Great Plains, the Southwest, and central Rocky Mountain states, as well as parts of California, the South, and the Midwest. According to Colorado State University research, nearly half of the 204 freshwater basins they studied in the United States may not be able to meet the monthly water demand by 2071.” While numbers projecting 50 or more years down the line may produce complacency, the damage will creep from now to then and beyond. The crisis is today!
I’m Peter Dekom, and even if you do not care about the loss of hydroelectric power or potable drinking water, if you like to eat, remember that agriculture accounts for some 70 per cent of all fresh water used globally, making it the largest consumer of water in the United States.
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