Jubilation & Celebration – But Who Has the Real Power in the Middle East?

  

Jubilation & Celebration – But Who Has the Real Power in the Middle East?

Gaza Peace – Phase One is the Easy Part / Phase Two: The Devil is in the Details… Which are Sparse Yet Critical

To Donald Trump, “the war is over.” To Israeli PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netayahu, it’s a “ceasefire” primarily focused on the successful release/return of the 20 remaining living Israeli hostages and the bodies of 26 hostages who had been declared dead as part of the first phase of the peace agreement. It all began when Hamas, the militant group that ruled over Gaza, kidnapped 251 people during its attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. In exchange, Israel is expected to release 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 1,722 detainees from Gaza arrested after the Hamas attack. Trump was praised by Netanyahu as the greatest “friend of Israel” of any American president in history, a man who should be accorded the Nobel Peace Prize… next year.

But after the 20 living hostages were released, Hamas pushed for last minute changes to the list. The group wants seven high-profile prisoners released, including powerful leaders like Marwan Barghouti and Ahmad Saadat, and had said if just two of these seven were freed today, all the hostages would be released in return. Still many former Israeli prisoners have been released.

Yet 35 invited international prelates and political leaders gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, minus Netanyahu who cited the Jewish Sabath to remain in Israel, to address the herd of elephants in the room. Hamas has not ended it cry for the destruction of Israel, and Netanyahu has not withdrawn his demand for the complete removal of Hamas from Israel. Disarmament of Hamas is a big reach, even with an option for armistice or right of passage out of Gaza. Hamas soldiers quickly occupied the areas in Gaza from which Israeli forces had left. And while Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, was present, Hamas was not represented.

But who’s in charge, who has the going forward power to implement a most difficult path to a permanent path to regional peace? Iran, not invited, has not been this powerless since its inception. Bombed and sanctioned into the ground, Mossad operatives sequentially assassinating generals and scientists leading their nuclear enrichment program, Iran is indeed wounded. Its regional surrogates have been hobbled – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and to a lesser extent the Yemeni Houthis – as it reaches to Russia to make up for lost military assets.

The triumph for this initial phase of ending the Gaza-Israel horror belongs to Donald Trump… particularly his ability to pressure essential participants to support this important step. A few short years ago, Qatar was the Arab world’s odd-nation-out, accused of suborning internal unrest in neighboring states. Yet, in a few short years, Qatar had become the greatest mediator for regional conflicts. Hamas and Israel met there, and after an unfortunate Israeli attack against a residential attack (where Hamas negotiators lived), Trump had the power to force Netanyahu to apologize to apologize to Qatari leadership. Qatar has been so instrumental in this latest peace effort that Trump rewarded their military with an unprecedented, shared Air Force facility in Idaho, a move that did not sit well with many Americans.

Saudi Arabia, with its massive wealth, bridged the gap with Israel but struggled with Israel’s unrelenting attack on Gaza’s Palestinians. Nevertheless, as the Saudi’s reached out to the United States for a guarantee of their sovereignty, clearly something that is not off the table, the Saudis hedged their bets with a co-security agreement with regional nuclear power, the very volatile country of Pakistan. And while the Saudi leadership did not attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, they are likely to be essential to the rebuilding effort. Egypt, with a strategic shared border (Raffa) with Gaza, is the most important access point for future external policing and medical/food relief to a decimated Palestine. Jordan is supportive but is mostly a follower of the other Arab powers. Syria, recently liberated from the brutal Assad regime ,is hardly in a position to become more than tangentially involved in the peace effort.

The United Arab Emirates, rich and technologically advanced, remains a disproportionate looming power that will be essential in coordinating the rebuilding Gaza. Turkey has the military capacity to provide support to the peacekeeping mission, but Turks are not Arabic fluent, and Ankara has issues with regional Kurds and is not expected to be essentially involved.

The success or failure of this peace and rebuilding effort, likely to take at least a decade if it works at all, lies in the hands of two nations, even though neither has yet accepted the only long-term, viable solution to the Palestinian crisis – a separate self-ruled, autonomous, independent, Palestinian: Isreal and the United States. Even as Donald Trump has in the past vetoed any Security Council recognition of Palestine by the UN, the General Assembly has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinian state, with the Palestinian flag flying above the UN’s New York headquarters. Behind Trump at the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting were many leaders, including from major European powers, who already that have already recognized the Palestinian state.

Make no mistake, Israel is the most powerful regional power, but like the red/blue divide that is tearing the United States apart, Israel is a deeply fractured nation. Trump is now a national hero to all Israelis. Many on the Israeli right, who have been led by Netanyahu during the conflict, insist that Hamas be banned from Gaza and any going forward resolution, that Israel maintains its right to step back in… their resistance to an independent state is their worst nightmare. Netanyahu, enduring a criminal trial for fraud and corruption (Trump even asked Israeli President Herzog to pardon the Israeli PM), would still seem to be an obstacle to making this peace effort work. Does he remain? How does the very angry, anti-Palestinian rightwing coalition react? Is a two-state solution possible otherwise?

And most importantly, can Trump overcome his short attention span to continue to use his bully pulpit to bring that resistance under control? Does Trump have to make global tariff concessions as part of the expected quid pro quo. Focus on Israel and the United States and particularly on whether Trump will stay completely involved to pressure those who will not stay the course. Over 67 thousand Palestinians have died, 90% of the buildings have been destroyed or substantially damaged. Hospitals and schools are almost completely gone. How quickly can relief aid reach Gazans? What happens to Jewish settlements on the West Bank? Who can speak for Hamas, and, very significantly, will Hamas really disarm or pretend and just buy time?

I’m Peter Dekom, celebrations are justified, this is a Trump victory, but will the ultimate reality remotely mirror these expectations?