Regime Change, for a Transactional President?

  

Regime Change, for a Transactional President?

Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Yemen, Greenland or …….

In my opinion, the usual political pundits have got it all wrong by referring to Trump’s recent “extraction” of Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, Venezuela as a “regime change.” Nor is Secretary of State, Marco Rubio’s description implementing a drug dealer’s arrest as purely as “law enforcement” action accurate; that would be very difficult to square with the very recent presidential pardon of the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, where a U.S. jury in March 2024 found him guilty of conspiring to import cocaine (400 tons!) into the United States. He had only begun his 45-year sentence in federal prison. Most of those little “narco-terrorist” boats we blew up were not even heading to the US and did not contain the major drug scourge (fentanyl) that is our real narcotics problem. Not to mention the subtext buried within Rubio’s strong commitment to his former Florida constituents to fight communist Cuba at every turn: Cuba is totally dependent on Venezuelan oil.

Taking back “stolen” petroleum assets across our hemisphere was Trump’s cry. His effort in Venezuela would include undoing the sequential nationalization of US oil company operations that began in 1976 and culminated in 2007, when then-President Hugo Chávez ordered the seizure (for “inadequate” compensation) of oil fields and other assets that belonged to U.S. oil companies ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, Norway's Statoil and France's Total. Taking back the “American-owned” petroleum assets is highlighted as a priority in the Project 2025 agenda adopted by Trump. While experts believe that Venezuela has 17% of the Earth’s oil reserves, the largest we know of, Caracas accounts for a meager 1% of global oil production.

Writing for the November 22nd dissonantvoice.org, Bill Scheuerman (Professor Emeritus of Political Science at SUNY Oswego) and Sid Plotkin ( Professor of Political Science, Margaret Stiles Halleck Chair of Social Science, at Vassar College), presented this excellent summary: “If you think Trump’s threat to invade Venezuela is about stopping the influx of drugs into the United States, you need to take a closer look at Project 2025. That document advocates American hegemony over the Western Hemisphere. But Trump does not read documents or strategy papers. He wants to bully the hemisphere and control its vast natural resources. His ‘Gulf of America’ apparently includes the vast oil reserves of Venezuela. The socialist nation has the world’s largest proven reserves. Still, with its politics chaotic and its military weak, and its close relationships with China, Russia, and Iran, it is an obvious launching point for Trump’s Napoleonic march through the Americas. Besides, handing over Venezuela’s oil fields to American Big Oil is the least he can do for the oil and gas executives who ponied up about $450 million – at least according to public records – to get their shill back into the White House.”

In a world of oil overproduction and a shift to alternative energy, which Trump abhors, expecting these US companies to take back those nationalized assets and spend the billions of dollars to restore the worn-out, unmaintained and often rusted drilling and oil transportation facilities, a process that will take more than a decade, may remain a wish. But controlling the global petroleum resources consolidates American power over our hemisphere, which seems to be the real goal.

Unless the United States unseats that entire Maduro regime, including all the bureaucrats and the entire leadership of the Venezuela military – which would require a massive in-country US troop presence that would be tremendously unpopular as the shadow of the midterms looms over us – Trump has not effected anything more than a “leadership change.” if Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez (who states that Maduro is the only legitimate president) and his entire cabinet/infrastructure are not completely “removed,” the much-touted regime change will not take place. You may have noticed that in his gloating, if not sleepy, victory speech, Trump never mentioned “democracy” or “full and fair elections,” but the word “oil” saturated his presentation. You might also have noted that JD Vance was nowhere near this gloat ceremony. But if Rodríguez were simply to accept American hegemony and agree to restore the seized oil assets, well…

What Trump seems to be focused on is reshaping the world based on defined spheres of influence to be governed by crony capitalists (or their Chinese equivalents) who control most of the Earth’s wealth. No longer based on the wildly successful economic alliances that fostered free trade, which may believe made America “first” as it may never be again, Trump seems to let China have Asia, Russia can take Europe, and the US would take the Western Hemisphere. But China and Russia may want a presence here too. Guess what that means for Ukraine?!

If you doubt this monied cabal financing Trump’s vision, you may have forgotten about the widely reported private dinner, seeking Big Oil campaign donors, gathered at April 11, 2024 at Mar-a-Lago. “You all are wealthy enough,” Trump reportedly told the assembled guests. “You should raise $1 billion to return me to the White House.” They would get relief from environmental regulations, new federal oil leases and… and there was this unfinished business in Venezuela. The United States was created at the end of the 18th century in reaction to our revulsion of colonialism. But Trump loves living in the past, as if, somehow, greatness lives there.

But Trump’s adventurism does not sit well with most Americans. Some believed Trump to be the “peace” president, not realizing that this was just a spelling error. Trump, it seems clear, merely wanted a “piece” of more assets and wealth. Writing for the January 4th Los Angeles Times, Kevin Rector took note of the post-Maduro arrest reaction: “President Trump’s decision to send U.S. forces into Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and return them to the U.S. to face drug charges elicited condemnation from legal experts and other critics who argued that the operation — conducted without congressional or United Nations approval — clearly violated U.S. and international law.

“Such criticism came from Democratic leaders, international allies and adversaries including Mexico, France, China and Russia, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and experts on international law and wartime powers… ‘Nicolás Maduro was a thug and an illegitimate leader of Venezuela, terrorizing and oppressing its people for far too long and forcing many to leave the country. But starting a war to remove Maduro doesn’t just continue Donald Trump’s trampling of the Constitution, it further erodes America’s standing on the world stage and risks our adversaries mirroring this brazen illegal escalation,’ Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote on X .

“A U.N. spokesman said Guterres was ‘deeply alarmed’ by the U.S. operation and ‘deeply concerned that the rules of international law have not been respected.’… China’s foreign ministry said ‘such hegemonic acts of the U.S. seriously violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty,’ and France’s foreign minister said the U.S. operation ‘contravenes the principle of the non-use of force that underpins international law’… Michael Schmitt, an international law professor at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom and a professor emeritus of international law at the U.S. Naval War College, said Trump’s actions were a ‘clear violation’ of international law.

“He said the U.S. had no authority from the U.N. Security Council to conduct military operations in Venezuela, or any legitimate justification to act in self-defense against an armed attack — which drug trafficking does not amount to… ‘International law is clear. Without consent, you cannot engage in investigations or arrest or seizure of criminal property on another state’s territory,’ he said. ‘That’s a violation of that state’s sovereignty.’” Even our European allies were mostly stunned and negative. While the bulk of elected Republicans backed Trump, their confidence was anything but clear. And some were gung-ho at the events, like Constitution-hating Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi who posted this distorted summary of how the theoretically fair and neutral American justice system works on X: “[Maduro and his wife] will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and if the American public accepts this unequivocal move to install autocratic crony capitalism as our new form of governance, perhaps they deserve what results.