Salting the Wounds, Hammering the Wedge Deeper

“Governors don’t do global pandemics.”

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo

After dispensing medical advice that would have been fatal if followed, canceling one White House Daily CV19 press briefing, and telling the governors – one more time!!! – that they were on their own, Donald Trump has amped up dangerous threats aimed at big city blue states (and what he believes are a couple of rogue red states). He is clinging to the desperate belief that restarting the economy is his key to victory in the fall. Though he may not legally be entitled to do so, he has threatened to withhold federal CV19 aid to states that do not follow his guidelines to accelerate the reopening the economy in the near term.

Not that the federal government has actually been that effective in getting needed supplies and equipment in the first place. And the stench of cronyism even surrounds some of that purported federal aid. FEMA’s mysterious and untransparent Air Bridge Project, helmed by Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, has the federal government picking up the tab for private buyers of basic medical supplies from China, at jacked up prices that only benefit China and those private buyers with little or no oversight. A Senate oversight committee is beginning to investigate this ill-defined system. Meanwhile, states are still bidding against each other (and FEMA) for those medical supplies. Even as Trump says he has high confidence that CV19 originated in a military lap in Wuhan… CHINA!

While trying to present a lock-step support for the President, there are rumblings among some GOP faithful that current federal policies could decimate the Party in November. Former George Bush speechwriter, David “Frum last week [third week in April] suggested in the 2020 election as a direct consequence of his botched response to the pandemic, and that he will ‘likely take the Republican Senate down with him’…

“[Frum] argued that President Donald Trump is sacrificing the lives of other Americans to the coronavirus crisis in a ‘desperate’ bid to save himself politically… In a thread on Twitter, David Frum claimed reports the White House is now pivoting its pandemic messaging to the economy showed Trump is ‘consciously choosing to risk higher virus casualties’ in the second quarter of 2020 ‘in hope of jolting the economy into revival in Q3 to save his re-election’ in November… ‘It’s a desperate gamble to save himself by sacrificing others,’ wrote Frum, who is now a senior editor at The Atlantic, warning: ‘It’s also not very likely to work.” Huffington Post, April 29^th. The first quarter GDP, based almost entirely on declines in March, was a negative 4.8%. It is still falling.

“As a handful of states begin to ease stay-at-home restrictions, no state that has opted to reopen has come close to the federally recommended 14 consecutive days of declining cases… Even as the U.S. hit the grim milestone of more than 1 million cases Tuesday [4/29]— one-third of the world's total — Georgia, Minnesota and other states are pushing to reopen businesses, even though new infection rates are still rising.” NBC News, April 29^th. Florida just experienced its highest one-day death rate from CV19 on April 29^th… and Governor Ron DeSantis is announcing a rather immediate reopening of that state.

Trump’s philosophy – let the market set the price for needed supplies – has pushed many municipalities and some states to the financial breaking point. Since the highest demand has been in places where lots of people are crowded together – cities (which are primarily blue, even those in red states) – Trump is openly catering to his rural base that truly hates cities more than ever. They have blamed cities for shutting down the economy and playing up what conspiracy theorists are calling a “fake crisis.” Mike Pence underscores this denial vector by showing up on April 28^th to the Mayo Clinic, knowing there are uniform instructions for visitors to wear masks, saying he and those around him have been sufficiently tested so that his appearance is safe. What a message for the CV19 deniers!

As Senate Majority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, snarled that the federal government is finished with “bailing out” blue states, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, at his April 29^th morning press conference, responded with justifiable outrage. He reminded us all that McConnell’s Kentucky takes $37 billion dollars out of the federal budget more than they put in in taxes… and that New York puts in $29 billion more than they take out. In fact, Oregon is the only blue state that takes out more than it contributes ($7.5 billion). According to the January 19^th Business Insider, even mega-rich states like Florida (drawing $62 billion out more than it pays in federal income taxes) and Texas ($36 billion) are effectively being subsidized (“bailed out”?) by the nation in big way.

As Cuomo repeatedly points out, a pandemic that spreads without honoring man-drawn borders cannot be shepherded without massive federal coordination. Cuomo points out that what the nation needs is unifying leadership, but what it has instead is a blame-seeking, responsibility-shirking litany of misinformation, delayed and inadequate federal action and a president urging people to ignore the very guidelines he has promulgated. All aimed at exacerbating polarization for political expediency. When this is all over and we are mustering policies and priorities to amplify returning to normalcy, who is going to forget his “us” vs “them” harsh divide, no matter who wins the White House. Is normalcy possible, or is the United States is hopelessly fractured?

To understand the depth of the divide, you can look at the acceleration of videos on YouTube and other generally available public online finding targets that have generated too much credibility in reminding Americans of the realities of this pandemic. “In recent weeks, Fauci has emerged as the latest target in the vast web of COVID-19-related conspiracy theories that have been circulating on social media since reports of the coronavirus first began to emerge out of Wuhan, China, in January. Like other coronavirus villains, from the Chinese government to Bill Gates, Fauci has been charged with an array of nefarious activity, all of it implausible and some of it mutually contradictory. According to some theories, for example, he’s both played a role in creating the coronavirus and exaggerated the risks of a ‘fake’ pandemic. According to widely viewed and shared YouTube videos, Facebook posts and memes, Fauci’s alleged motives include ties to 'big pharma,’ a financial stake in a future coronavirus vaccine and involvement in a ‘deep state’ plot to destroy the economy and influence the presidential election in November. 

“Experts warn that recent efforts to undermine scientists and public health officials like Fauci have the potential to further compound the dangers of misinformation, which has spread alongside the coronavirus as a dangerous comorbidity to the pandemic itself.” Yahoo News, April 28^th. The same Anthony Fauci who, at a Trump-led CV19 press briefing on April 29^th, noted that preliminary test results for a mollifying treatment (not a cure) using the drug Remdisivir were distinctly positive. As Trump touted uniform support for his effort to reopen America among American governors, there are plenty of governors who are being much more circumspect and cautious than to embrace the President’s goals… and have made it clear that they are going to make data-driven, not politically- based decisions.

Trump, on the other hand, is much more interested in assessing blame on China and demanding them to write big global checks. Data? Why bother? “Open the economy” is the mantra. Trump needs distractions. China has already rejected Trump’s position.

Rumblings of meat shortages have prompted Trump’s orders that meat processing plants must remain open (purported under his powers under the Defense Production Act). The relevant workers are noting the lack of safe distancing, testing and other prophylactic measures at those plants, where there have been many serious CV19 outbreaks. Workers, most of whom desperately need paychecks, are threatening simply not to show up. Federal OSHA regulations require a safe workplace, no matter what the President may wish. We still do not have clearly confirmed reliable CV19 tests that produce actionable results! Bottom line: we are hopelessly behind in having the necessary testing and other necessary medical supplies to protect those workers and generally to contemplate any material reopening the economy.

Take a lesson from Germany, which has experienced much lower infection and mortality rates per capita, by far, than has the United States. They lifted significant distancing restrictions a week ago… and the infection rates have already ticked up. The government has now suggested that German residents stay at home as much as possible and consider continuing safe distancing requirements. Think the U.S. can implement a much wider reopening, with much less in place to handle infections than Germany, and just watch our economy soar?! The market soared with Fauci’s Remdisivir announcement and as red state governors completely ignored the infection spread-rate models. He warned us not to get overly excited by this anti-inflammatory and to remain careful. Does the stock market crash when the death toll accelerates again?

Funny, I’m imagining when the vaccine is finally available (next year), if Trump is still in office, does he let the market set the price ($100,000 a shot maybe)? And how does the fed distribute the vaccine? Or does it? Is it even able to? They still have not got viable test kits out to all those who need them.

While there have been some amazing federal bright spots – like US Army Corps of Engineers building masses of operational make-shift hospital facilities in record time – the voices at the top of the federal government have failed like no prior American administration in history, their policies have primarily been words contrary to actions, the nation has not been this divided (at each other’s throats) like this since the Civil War, and there is little in their current data to suggest that we are anywhere near a place where this country can reopen without massive casualties, the dreaded second wave. Once again, we have a continuing Trump administration bad habit: labeling total failure as “success” and leaving it at that.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and if there is a second wave with massive casualties, it will take a miracle to allow the United States of America to hold together and remain a viable democratic country.

Advice & Recommendations from Those Living in a Protective Bubble

THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (far worse) THAN THE PROBLEM 

Donald Trump tweet 3/24

If you are a high-ranking government official, state or federal (and some of the big city mayors), you have cadres of officials and actual guards to separate yourself from the population at large. Prescreened and tested staff can get you food and other necessities on an extremely prioritized basis, even though those tests and screening capabilities just might not be available to your constituents. PPE at the highest level. And if you have any symptoms of any ailment, medical staffs and the best doctors available are appointed, with exceptionally high priority, to see to it that you get absolutely everything you need for treatment and care, including the most private hospital care with dedicated and exclusive staff with nothing more than an order to get you into recovery mode fast.

Many of these benefits are also available for the super-rich, everything from concierge medicine priorities (can be really pricey, $10K/month is not out of the question) to the benefits of hospital care at the highest level when you have made multimillion-dollar donations. So, when these privileged individuals speak and make policy pronouncements, regardless of age or preexisting conditions, they know they are both protected and prioritized vis-à-vis the ravages of COVID-19. Without serious personal medical risk to themselves, particularly if they are consumed with money over life and health, they can make recommendations that benefit their economic well-being without much concern over loss of life or other massive traumatic health concerns that could impact everybody else, especially the healthcare workers and the medically vulnerable.

At the federal level, now that the President has shifted the medical response and responsibility to the states, officials know that a second wave – now an almost certainty – can thus be blamed on governors. Given Trump’s rural constituency and his stated belief that the harm to the economy might well be, in his mind, worse to the potential death toll (per the above tweet), it is absolutely clear that without that necessary empathetic tone that has never been present in any administration policies, “it’s the economy, stupid” and only the economy. No body in Trump’s administration who matters remotely faces the health risk that confronts millions living in the Washington, D.C. area. They’re safe.

So, you get policy statements where the President openly supports protest groups, ignoring the same guidelines Trump personally supported on April 16^th. He continues to insist that there are substantial pockets within the country today that can open, and indeed several Republican governors have acted to open public lands immediately. Nuts to anyone who has ever studied how pandemics work. They subside when distancing and other comparable policies are enforced, fading away in time and by newly discovered treatments/prevention, and explode when those policies are relaxed prematurely. The second and third waves of the 1918-20 Spanish Flu killed more people than did the first highly destructive first wave.

Trump advisors are hearing the boss loud and clear, and except for those medical professionals with the relevant epidemiological experience, they are towing the party line accordingly. “Stephen Moore, an economic adviser to President Donald Trump, thinks the U.S. economy needs to be opened back up immediately, despite the very real ongoing health threat from the coronavirus… If the administration waits any longer, it could get even uglier for the economy, Moore said.

“‘Summer is going to be a disaster under any scenario. This disaster will be really brutal. But I think you could start to see by late August, early September, the signs of a recovery where people feel better about things,’ Moore said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade, on how the economy would react to a May 1 reopening.

“Moore added, ‘If we wait until June or July, you can write off not just 2020, but the first half of 2021. You’re talking about real devastation. So that’s why I have been such a bull on getting the economy open quickly. Really it’s just heartbreaking, and you see what’s happening with the food lines, with people at the Salvation Army where trucks in some cities are a mile long. We are facing real devastation here, and the human toll is growing with each passing day.’” Yahoo News, April 20^th. Moore really does not have worry about access to the highest levels of prevention and cure. Easy for him to recommend. The toll of reopening too soon is even worse. Just remember, the virus does not care one whit about economics; it has been designed just to replicate!

There are alternatives, Stephen: Money for food, government policies that toll payments without massive repayment obligations, lots of testing so we stop flying blind, and all Americans working together towards  getting us through to a safer time until one of three possible steps kick in: the disease weakens and dies on its own (probably not a viable solution; takes too long if history is an indicated), we have a cure or powerful symptom-reducing treatments or there is a widely deployed and effective vaccine that prevents the infection. Anything else reignites the virus and kills lots more of us. In effect, the nation will have to be willing to write off older and medically vulnerable people, perhaps even denying them needed ventilators if there is a shortage (it appears that the survival rate for those over 65 on ventilators is only 20% anyway). Sorry, Donald, we need to unite, not find more reasons to polarize.

There is an increasingly acceptable willingness among right wing economists to let people die as a priority over keeping a lid on social interaction to contain the virus. It’s more openly discussed ever since Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, on Fox News on March 24^th, stated that grandparents would be willing to accept sacrificing their own lives to preserve a better economic world for their grandchildren and “get back to work.” He noted that, “Those of us who are 70 plus, we’ll take care of ourselves. But don’t sacrifice the country.” Why do I think that the Lt. Governor of Texas just might not be at risk for failing to get his basic needs supplied and receiving the finest medical care provided by his state… at state expense?

So, here’s my suggestion for those officials, state and federal, who force early re-openings. When venues are reopened, social distancing reduced and gatherings permitted, let those officials mingle, mix and participate fully. Substantially. Personally. And don’t forget to touch your face!

            I’m Peter Dekom, and the levels of misdirect and denial have themselves reached pandemic proportions, and there will be tens of thousands of Americans who will lose their lives accordingly.

Who Pays?

In the entertainment industry, there are all sorts of insurance policies that you might think would cover a CV-19 shutdown. Cast insurance when a film or television production has a star unable to work because he or she came down with COVID-19. Public appearance insurance when a musical star is too sick to give a sold-out concert. A completion guarantor might be on the hook to finish a film when production stops. In the business world, there’s business interruption insurance. Ah, but there’s the fine print. Acts of war and outbreaks of disease are commonly excluded from applicable policies and completion guarantees. And if you tried to get this kind of insurance today, forgetaboutit.

Even Lloyd’s of London isn’t touching this risk category. It is hard to conceive of an insurance company, or even a consortium of insurance companies bound together, that could actually afford to issue such pandemic coverage almost at any price.

The government has made up for some of this with its rolling stimulus packages, now over $3 trillion in Congressional action (not counting the emergency response from the Federal Reserve), but most of the costs are shoved onto the people impacted. Businesses and workers. For those businesses lucky enough to have legacy business interruption insurance in place, they must be jumping for joy that they had the wisdom to have such coverage. But facing devastating losses, insurers who had issued these policies are twisting and squirming to avoid honoring what seem to be contractual obligations to cover losses. And you can bet that any new business interruption policies are and will be “oh so clear” to avoid anything to do with this and any future pandemic.

If a restaurant is under government order to shut down its regular “seated at a table” operations but is still selling takeout, has its business been interrupted? If office-driven businesses continue to have meetings with virtual meetings (Zoom, Microsoft Team, etc.), or staffers are continuing to field calls from home, is there a covered interruption? Even if revenues have dropped by 80-90%, even as operating costs continue?

And what “caused” the shutdown? The “virus” or the governmental order? Such that if the virus caused the shutdown it not might be covered under an exclusion, but if the government order caused it, there may be coverage? But didn’t the virus cause the government order? Some policies require that the interruption be at least a certain length, often a month. So when did the shutdown start? And if governments are slowly allowing businesses to reopen, is that the end of the interruption even if no customers/clients show up? What about “essential businesses” which remain open but whose income has been decimated?

As insurance carriers are circling the wagons against CV-19-related claims and consistently denying coverage for any reason they can think of, looking at the fine print, businesses that are facing catastrophic losses that have such interruption policies are filing suit. Courtrooms may be closed, but the judicial system is still handling filings for civil and criminal cases… and those being denied coverage are lining up and filing suit. The line is getting pretty long.

One such litigant, Hollywood’s iconic family run Musso & Frank Grill (founded in the middle of the Spanish Flu in 1919), has filed a suit against its carrier, which quickly denied the claim. “The lawsuit states that the carrier, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, didn’t even bother to launch an investigation of the loss — as the restaurant says is required under state law — but rejected its claim outright based on the virus exclusion.” Michael Hiltzig writing for the Los Angeles Times, April 26^th. The Echeverria family that has run the business from inception has run through a lot of chaos over the years, but nothing quite as bad as this outbreak. Their annual premium is $47,000.

“A week later, however, [Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance] said it would handle the claim in-house, and four days later, on April 1, it notified the owners that ‘COVID-19 is not a covered cause of loss’ and cited policy language excluding coverage of any ‘loss or damage caused by or resulting from any virus, bacterium or other microorganism’ that causes illness. Representatives for Mitsui couldn’t be reached for comment.

“The policy provisions, however, don’t quite spell out what’s meant by a ‘loss due to virus.’ [Michael J.] Bidart, the restaurant’s lawyer, argues that under California law, it would apply only to cases in which a virus itself was found on the restaurant premises, prompting a shutdown… ‘That couldn’t be the case here,’ he says, ‘because no coronavirus was ever there.’ The proximate cause of the shutdown was a government order that banned the use of the premises, which Bidart says is covered by the policy.

“One can start to discern the outlines of a new category of case law to bedevil lawyers and judges here: Has a virus ‘caused’ a business loss when the government has ordered it closed to keep a virus away from the premises? In coming years, will the name of Musso & Frank be linked not only with Hollywood history but also with legal history?” LA Times.

Pandemics and acts of war are normal exclusions however, generally under a notion that such events are a. too costly to insure, and b. everybody else in society has to deal with this anyway. It’s a big deal. “‘A lot of the firms that do this stuff are being inundated with claims to be reviewed,’ says Michael J. Bidart, a specialist in insurance bad-faith lawsuits who is representing the Echeverrias. ‘There’s going to be a large public policy debate.’

“The insurance industry already is moving to put a fence around its potential exposure to business interruption claims… Closure losses just for businesses with 100 employees or fewer are reaching as much as $431 billion a month, according to the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. That’s as much as 72 times the monthly premiums collected on commercial property policies, the group says… ‘Pandemic outbreaks are uninsured because they are uninsurable,’ its chief executive, David Sampson, said in a statement.

“The crisis is likely to generate litigation over canceled travel plans, scrapped business deals and purportedly negligent exposure of workers and customers to the virus, among many other grounds… Insurers have been reportedly discouraging pandemic business interruption claims at the source — telling policyholders not to even bother filing them because they’re certain to be denied under the virus exclusion.

“Those reports prompted California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara to issue a notice April 14 instructing insurers that they could not reject claims out of hand — every policyholder, he said, is entitled to file a claim, have it investigated and receive a detailed explanation for any denial.

“‘We’ve been hearing from businesses that they were told, ‘Don’t bother to file a claim because it will be denied,’ ’ Tony Cignarale, deputy commissioner for consumer services and market conduct, told [Hiltzig]. ‘We want to make sure that process is being followed. You can’t just tell your agents and brokers to reject a claim.’” LA Times.

Americans are used to relying on insurance, risk pooling with a mark-up for the company that sets up the pool. It’s one of those financial constructs that allowed the Western world (and later most of the rest of the world at some level) to grow into the financially powerful nations that exist today. People could take business risks to build new operations without worrying about ancillary risks – from things like flood and fires – that could otherwise blindside them. In time insurance covered all kind of risks, from FDIC covering bank deposits to embezzlement, malfunctioning equipment, accidents, etc.

We have a surfeit of nasties waiting in the wings that will challenge our economic institutions and constructs to the core. Stuff where insurance companies will try to exclude from coverage. COVID-19 is the worst domestic disaster we’ve seen in a century and its impacts are not remotely near conclusion. But the disease is just one (particularly horrible and contagious) in a litany of recent pandemics and is hardly likely to be the last. Add that to the even more devastating impact that we face from climate change, and you have to wonder how business and society will be able to adjust… just to continue. It is clear that private insurance is not configured to handle such massive disasters… but then is even our government?

            I’m Peter Dekom, and the political, economic and social realignment generated by this pandemic may be force the greatest deep and abiding changes this planet has ever faced in recorded history.

Can Open & Democratic Societies Effectively Confront Epidemics?

Repetition does not transform a lie into a truth. Franklin Roosevelt

It’s amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit. Harry S. Truman

Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. Margaret Thatcher

I'm a believer in the polls, by the way. Donald Trump

I’ve challenged the existence of compassionate capitalism when every recent catastrophe and governmental response has further polarized American income inequality, creating more wealth at the top and decimating those in the middle and particularly at the bottom of the economic ladder. See my March 31^st Is Compassionate Capitalism Dead? blog. With the greatest level of income inequality in the developed world, the COVID-19 pandemic has only made that schism worse:

“Though the coronavirus itself may not discriminate in terms of who can be infected, the COVID-19 pandemic is far from a great equalizer. In the same month that 22 million Americans lost their jobs, the American billionaire class’s total wealth increased about 10%—or $282 billion more than it was at the beginning of March. They now have a combined net worth of $3.229 trillion.

“The initial stock market crash may have dented some net worths at first—for instance, that of Jeff Bezos, which dropped down to a mere $105 billion on March 12. But his riches have rebounded: As of April 15, his net worth has increased by $25 billion. Eric Yuan, founder and CEO of Zoom, was one of the few to see an increase in net worth even as the markets crashed, and he’s now up $2.58 billion.

“These ‘pandemic profiteers,’ as a new report from the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive think tank, calls them, is just one piece of the wealth inequality puzzle in America. In the background is the fact that since 1980, the taxes paid by billionaires, measured as a percentage of their wealth, dropped 79%.” FastCompany.com, April 23^rd. Since there is no economic growth at all during this pandemic, where did that 10% wealth increase to the rich come from? Answer: the rest of us! Ah!

Clear and decisive leadership has shut down the impact of COVID-19 in some autocratic regimes, well-informed with laser focus on containing the virus, who have the means of imposing near total control over their populations. As of this writing, for example, the communist nation of Vietnam, with a population of 95 million and that sits on the Chinese border, has not had one single fatality from COVID-19. Not one. Vietnam was and is also very suspicious of any claims made by its neighbor to the north, taking every precaution on its own. 

“The communist-ruled country [of Vietnam] has sealed its borders, quarantined masses of people, used soldiers and police to track down potential infections and fined social media users for spreading misinformation… But despite their effectiveness, Vietnam’s measures are not easily replicable. Its intolerance of dissent and ability to mobilize an entire security and political apparatus — steps more common in China — meant its campaign met little of the pushback seen in Western liberal democracies…

“Since the government imposed a partial nationwide lockdown April 1, Vietnam saw only a modest increase in coronavirus cases to 270, with all but 45 recovered and no fatalities… The numbers are stunningly low considering that Vietnam — which shares a border with China — was among the first countries where the virus spread and lacks the resources of governments more celebrated for their containment strategies, such as South Korea’s widespread testing and Taiwan’s aggressive digital surveillance.

“Its results stand out even more as other Southeast Asian countries struggle. Wealthy Singapore, once regarded as a model, has seen infections skyrocket among migrant workers living in overcrowded dormitories. Indonesia, the largest country in the region, initially ignored the threat and now has the most COVID-19 deaths in Asia after China.” Los Angeles Times, April 26^th. Vietnam is just beginning to reopen and relax its strict policies.

Clearly, China’s brutal if delayed response to the pandemic rapidly reduced the impact of the virus. The number of those infected (including related fatalities) in the United States, even with significant allowance for under-reporting in the PRC, truly outpaces the same statistic in China. The United States has the greatest number of CV-19 deaths in the world, and we are hardly the most populous nation on earth.

But the mere existence of an autocracy that controls it people with brutal efficiency does not insure that such forms of government are able to deal effectively with the problem. See my March 16^th A Different Virus, Conspiracy Theories & Autocracy blog for such failed leadership. Where a fearless leader’s looking good trumps an effective response to a viral containment policy. The old “garbage in - garbage out” saying applies to the quality of the autocrat in charge. 

It’s not as if democracies are incapable of relatively prompt and effective efforts to slow the impact of highly contagious pandemics. However, it is interesting to note that the democracies that have been most effective in containing this virus are small, exceptionally homogenous counties (as in Scandinavia) and those with a cultural history of national discipline and self-sacrifice like South Korea, Taiwan and Germany.  

Democracies with histories of rebellious independence – France, Italy, the UK and the United States – have failed the worst, but even without that cohort’s historical predispositions and factions being considered, those with radical nationalist/populist leaders have fared the worst. The United States is a classic example, with a science-skeptic President, shoving operational responsibility to the states, failing to coordinate a uniform system to provide needed supplies and equipment that only a central authority can do, underplaying the severity of the outbreak, making misstatements with regularity, prioritizing money over health and suggesting medical solutions that actually can kill those who follow his dictates. Our horrible numbers say it all.

The only leader of a major populated democracy who is on par with the President of United States is Brazil’s President, Jair Bolsonaro, who heads a nation with over 200 million people. A climate change denier and science skeptic, Bolsonaro “has accused his political foes and the press of purposefully ‘tricking’ citizens about the dangers of coronavirus, as Latin America braced for a spike in the number of deaths.” The Guardian UK, March 23^rd. 

Bolsonaro, mimicking Trump’s firing of health officials who disagreed with his dictates (most recently HHS vaccine expert, Dr. Richard Bright), fired his Health Minister who refused to minimize statements to the public on the dangers of the virus. Result? “Brazil is quickly becoming one of the world’s worst coronavirus hot spots… Amid unprecedented political turmoil, overcrowded hospitals, insufficient testing — and a president who refuses to acknowledge the seriousness of the pandemic — Latin America’s largest economy is being senselessly ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic.” Daily News, April 25^th.  

The biggest difference between the impact of Bolsonaro and Trump is that, except for a dwindling number of populist diehards, Bolsonaro has steadily lost credibility with mayors and governors even within his own party, who increasingly ignore him entirely. 

In the end, effective containment of a pandemic, that obviously is oblivious to the wants and desires of its potential infectees, is a combination of firm, clear, knowledgeable, effective and early initiative in the nation’s central leadership, absolute adherence to the truth, preparedness and the willingness to take firm, consistent and often unpopular actions. The United States has “none of the above.”

            I’m Peter Dekom, and the “everyone for him or herself” fractionalization of America and the level of support for a totally inadequate and truly dangerous President do not suggest that the strong and effective country we once were will continue for much longer.

Biophysics Professor Trump’s Traveling Medicine Show

It would normally be entertaining to listen to a science-skeptic expound on his own personal, untrained and uneducated theories on complex scientific theories. But not from someone who can convince people to take severe medical risks. Not from the President of the United States, making it up on the spot. Shooting from the hip is the stuff of TV talk and game show hosts, kids vamping when the teacher asks a question where the student does not know the answer and Donald Trump. 

Watching Dr. Deborah Birx’s face at Donald Trump’s April 23^rd press briefing, where he seriously (watch the playback if you think he was joking) suggested that some internal use of a disinfectant (injected or swallowed) be considered to treat CV-19, said it all. Simply, she was horrified. Trump’s claim a day later that he was joking and just being sarcastic was incredibly obviously false. He meant it when he said it. See also my Dr. Trump’s Traveling Medicine Show blog (April’s 24^th) for more details.

But in addition to Trump’s oft-repeated claim that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, used as anti-malarials and to treat lupus but which also carry the risk of serious and potentially fatal side-effects, are effective treatments for COVID-19 (there are plenty of medical studies that reach the opposite conclusion) and thus should be the focus of a significant new billion dollar federal research effort, Donald Trump had yet another “brilliant” treatment for COVID-19. Light.

The April 25^th FastCompany.com tackled the realities of that theory: “[U]pon hearing that ultraviolet waves of light, which are projected by the sun, could kill the virus behind COVID-19, President Trump began speculating as to how it might purify our bodies at his press conference on Thursday [4/23]… ‘So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous—whether it’s ultraviolet or just a very powerful light—and I think you said that hasn’t been checked because of the testing…And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way.’

“This was the latest in a wave of impossible-to-follow, pseudo-scientific claims by Trump. Attempting to unpack and scrutinize its logic is an exercise in futility. But it does serve as an important moment to clarify what ultraviolet (UV) light, as both a natural resource from the sun and a technology harnessed by new bulbs, can provide to us during the COVID-19 crisis and what it cannot.

“For clarity, we spoke to Andrea Martin Armani, the Ray Irani Chair in Engineering and Materials Science and Professor of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering, an expert on light and biology, who has developed several new biosensor technologies with lasers and UV light…

“Thanks to UV, sunlight has been proven to kill the virus behind COVID-19, though not effectively enough to wipe it out entirely. The purifying power of UV light has also been harnessed in specialized lightbulbs used to purify hospital rooms and water sources, but that’s a different type of UV— [UVC: the most effective part of the UV spectrum for killing pathogens like COVID-19]…

“‘UVC disrupts the pyrimidines [nucleic acids contained in RNA and DNA],’ Armani explains, because the specific frequency of UVC resonates with the nucleic acids [in the virus’ or bacteria’s RNA/DNA], destroying them (with more effectiveness than UVA or UVB). ‘Since it’s able to go in and destroy half of RNA or DNA, it’s able to destroy replication of viruses and bacteria. They can’t reproduce and so they die.’…

“‘UVC has been used in water and air purification since the late 1990s,’ says Armani. ‘The idea that UVC could actually disrupt DNA and RNA was discovered in the late 1880s. The concept has been known for a very long time!’ It’s used in sealed tanks at water treatment facilities, sealed ducts in HVAC systems, and even some personal air purifiers. More recently, UVC light has been adopted in surgical rooms to blast the entire room with light and purify it within minutes. [Pictured above in a hospital room devoid of any people]

“Armani has even built a UVC box in her home, which isn’t much more than a closable box with a UVC light inside. She uses to sterilize deliveries as they come in. It’s the same sort of technology that’s currently sterilizing N95 masks for reuse…

“Why not add UVC lights to my house then?... Well, the catch is that UVC light, like UVA and UVB, is an indiscriminate killer. Enough UVC light—the level of power used to sterilize surgical rooms—would burn you and potentially give you skin cancer. That’s why it’s only being used in controlled environments. Humans don’t enter the sealed water purification tanks that are being blasted with UVC light. Motion sensors ensure no one is in a surgical room when the UVC light goes on…

“‘Technically… there are ways to bring light (in general) into the body. There are actually medical treatments based on bringing {non-UV} into the body at very very precise locations. For example, one approach for breaking up kidney stones is ‘blasting’ them with a high power laser,’ she says. ‘However, that is typically a green laser—not a UVC laser. And the laser only hits the kidney stone. So, no, there isn’t a way to bring UVC light into your body and hit everywhere at once.’

“And if you did manage to hit every cell in your body with enough UVC, you’d break down the DNA and kill them, too. So, yes, that makes Trump’s UV light cure every bit as sound as drinking bleach.” We are light years’ (pun intended) from figuring out how to harness UVC in generic light bulbs that we could have around us that are strong enough to kill germs while not destroying human cells. Still Trump expounds. His CV-19 leadership rating continues to soar, even as his own followers are beginning to dismiss his medical claims.

There are rumors that Republican leaders are making progress to reduce the time that Donald Trump speaks at this daily press briefing, still a presidential favorite venue in which to excoriate his “enemies” (usually Democrats and the press) and present his “expertise” to his constituency.

These Republicans higher-ups know, however, that on a more objective level, Trump rather consistently demonstrates his ignorance and lack of understanding of what this nation actually faces. On April 25^th, Trump eschewed his daily briefing, after having embarrassed himself with his disinfectant recommendation two days earlier, claiming the briefings were “not worth my time or effort.” Is this a permanent change? The GOP sure hopes so.

Look at the New York Times map (April 25^th) above and see how much of the United States is reopening now, even as CV-19 infection and death rates remain at critically high levels. I can feel that second wave rippling and getting ready to pounce. Too many Americans, especially red state governors, are following Trump’s suggestion to be liberated and resume the economy. We ain’t seen nuffin’ yet.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and watching the litany of human beings dying from this disease, gasping for air as their lungs fail, makes having a non-empathetic, science-skeptic “know it all” President truly horrifying to me.

Dr. Trump’s Traveling Medicine Show

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” Abraham Lincoln

Dr. Trump’s Traveling Medicine Show

I have to say in my “more years alive than I am readily willing to admit,” I’ve never seen a non-doctor, senior government official, make blanket recommendations to the general public of prescription medications (prescribed for entirely different diseases, I might add) or toxic chemicals to be injected or ingested to cure a disease or reduce critical symptoms. But when those recommendations come with the weight of the President of the United States, there are a lot of people who take those suggestions as the gospel. Even serious medical institutions, who believe that some underlying special inside research must have triggered the suggestion.

The President has uttered recommendations of medical treatments for COVID-19 using named chemicals and/or drugs more than once. None of these recommendations has been clinically proven to be effective, even as the President has doubled down on his suggestions. Folks trying these recommendations have faced serious side effects, some risking death, with no evidence of cure or subsidence. Official government agencies have had to issue specific contradictions to presidential prescriptions, which seems to have evoked presidential rage at being contradicted. Federal officials know if they tell the medical truth, they may be fired.

“Until Tuesday [4/22], Dr. Rick Bright served as a top federal expert [at the Department of Health and Human Services] on vaccines, heavily involved in the response to COVID-19. Now, Bright says he was forced out of his job because he refused to tout unproven treatments for the disease… [Bright] said he wanted treatments that were going be vetted thoroughly, and not just treatments that President Trump liked, including that anti-malaria drug that has not been fully tested, but that the president has encouraged Americans to take.” PBS.org, April 22^nd.

Fans of NIH’s Dr Anthony Fauci, who has walked a fine line between Trump’s litany of medical inaccuracies and telling Americans necessary truths, believe that he has survived being fired (barely) for two reasons: his profile and credibility have generated such popular support that his discharge would actually hurt Trump and as a retired citizen, he would be able to speak his mind freely, contradicting the President even more directly.

For fans of old Westerns, we are familiar with the hucksters and quacks traveling the highways and byways of old in rickety wagons or as part of circus trains selling their cure-all elixirs. “Snake oil salesmen.” The bottles that did generate “relief” often turned out to be various concentrations of highly addictive morphine. Except for a very briefly implemented Vaccine Act (1813), there were no food purity or drug laws or regulations back during most of the 1800s. It literally was the “wild, wild West.” But the increasingly toxic reactions in the general public created a public groundswell for the government to do something. In 1883, the Department of Agriculture embraced creating what became known first as the Division and later the Bureau of Chemistry. “Under Harvey Washington Wiley, appointed chief chemist in 1883, the Division began conducting research into the adulteration and misbranding of food and drugs on the American market…

“In June 1906, President Theodore Roosevelt signed into law the Pure Food and Drug Act, also known as the ‘Wiley Act’ after its chief advocate. The Act prohibited, under penalty of seizure of goods, the interstate transport of food that had been ‘adulterated.’ The act applied similar penalties to the interstate marketing of ‘adulterated’ drugs, in which the ‘standard of strength, quality, or purity’ of the active ingredient was not either stated clearly on the label or listed in the United States Pharmacopeia or the National Formulary.

“The responsibility for examining food and drugs for such ‘adulteration’ or ‘misbranding’ was given to Wiley's USDA Bureau of Chemistry. Wiley used these new regulatory powers to pursue an aggressive campaign against the manufacturers of foods with chemical additives, but the Chemistry Bureau's authority was soon checked by judicial decisions, which narrowly defined the bureau's powers and set high standards for proof of fraudulent intent. In 1927, the Bureau of Chemistry's regulatory powers were reorganized under a new USDA body, the Food, Drug, and Insecticide organization. This name was shortened to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) three years later.” Wikipedia.

As time and medical science progressed, with Congressional support, the FDA introduced stringent testing requirements for new prescription drugs plus guidelines on permissible over-the-counter drugs. And no, not even the President of the United States can waive FDA requirements. Americans count on a medically sound approval process for pharmaceuticals, safety determined objectively and not subject to be overruled by politicians. Enter science-skeptic Donald Trump, seizing his daily CV-19 press briefings to spread his beliefs as if there were facts.

The President has touted antimalarial drugs (hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, also used to treat other diseases such as lupus) based on his own non-scientific anecdotal evidence. He heard that these chemicals “could limit replication of the coronavirus in laboratory dishes, and President Trump said he felt good about their effectiveness. ‘That’s all it is, just a feeling,’ Trump said in mid-March.” Los Angeles Times, April 14^th. He repeated that “feeling” several times. “What do you have to lose? Take it,” Trump said during a press briefing on April 5th. The facts underlying the inappropriate use of these drug are rather significant.

“[D]angerous side effects of the drugs can include an erratic heartbeat that can lead to sudden death among people who have a congenital cardiac condition or take common antidepressants, antipsychotics or certain antibiotics that lengthen the time it takes for the heart to recharge between beats… [For example, Rita] Wilson, who came down with COVID-19 while in Australia with husband Tom Hanks, told ‘CBS This Morning’ that the medication left her ‘completely nauseous’ and suffering from vertigo. She was given the drug about Day 9 of her illness, she said.” LA Times. An Arizona man died in late March after having ingested chloroquine phosphate — believing it would protect him from becoming infected with the coronavirus. The man's wife told NBC News that she had watched televised briefings during which Trump talked about the potential benefits of chloroquine.” NBC News, April 24^th.

“The Food and Drug Administration on Friday [4/24] warned against unsupervised use of the malaria drug chloroquine and its derivative hydroxychloroquine to treat coronavirus after reports of ‘serious’ poisoning and deaths… The agency issued a drug safety warning, saying it is aware of reports of ‘serious heart rhythm problems’ in coronavirus patients who took the drugs.

“‘Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can cause abnormal heart rhythms,’ as well as a ‘dangerously rapid heart rate called ventricular tachycardia,’ the FDA said in the notice. ‘We will continue to investigate risks associated with the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for COVID-19 and communicate publicly when we have more information.’” Yahoo News, April 24^th. The FDA also warned physicians who still want to administer chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to CV-19 patients to do so only for those in a hospital. While some nations have tested the prescription without evidence that they work, the FDA has not issued a definitive statement on their effectiveness yet. But touting these anti-malarials was not the end of Trump’s medical suggestions.

On April 23^rd, at one of his press briefings, the President suggested that an internal use of disinfectants – used to clean surfaces effectively against COVID-19 – would seem a natural way to kill the virus inside the human body. Sensing the potential for massive lawsuits against the manufacturers whose products could then be misused based on this presidential suggestion, one such vendor spoke up immediately: “The manufacturer for Lysol, a disinfectant spray and cleaning product, issued a statement warning against any internal use after President Donald Trump suggested that people could get an ‘injection’ of ‘the disinfectant that knocks (coronavirus) out in a minute.’

“‘As a global leader in health and hygiene products, we must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route),’ said a spokesperson for Reckitt Benckiser, the United Kingdom-based owner of Lysol, in a statement to NBC News.

“‘As with all products, our disinfectant and hygiene products should only be used as intended and in line with usage guidelines. Please read the label and safety information,’ the statement continued, adding that the company believes it has a ‘responsibility in providing consumers with access to accurate, up-to-date information as advised by leading public health experts.’” NBC News.

The medical community was equally appalled. “‘This notion of injecting or ingesting any type of cleansing product into the body is irresponsible and it’s dangerous,’ said [Dr. Vin Gupta, a pulmonologist, global health policy expert]. ‘It’s a common method that people utilize when they want to kill themselves.’” NBC News.

Trump himself quickly realized the idiocy of his suggestion, but was it too late? Had people already ingested disinfectant? If any did, we haven’t found their bodies yet. Fox News was so taken aback, they didn’t even cover this story. Trump’s responses on the next day were all over the map. It was a media test. A joke. “I was asking a question sarcastically to reporters like you just to see what would happen.” He meant only for the disinfectant to be used on hands. If you watched the initial statement, we all know he meant it. Or was that stuff about hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine a joke too?

When a President speaks, his words directly and immediately impact his constituents and may drive true believers to follow his suggestions as if they were the ultimate truth. When a President speaks and presents truly dangerous and toxic suggestions that easily could kill those who follow his suggestions, his words still directly and immediately impact his constituents and may drive true believers to follow his suggestions as if they were the ultimate truth.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and for those who continue to believe that the President’s leadership on the CV-19 pandemic is effective, are they actually going to ingest some disinfectant in support of that belief?