When Two Neighboring Nuclear Power Escalate Mutual Hatred

It’s a distant land – Jammu and Kashmir – astride the Pakistani-Indian border. A beautiful land of cool mountain air, a massive lake (Dal) filled with magical and legendary houseboats (pictured above), where nature has bestowed an air of tranquility and a link with nature. When India was formed in 1947, Kashmir had a choice: India or Pakistan. Mostly Muslim, the only such state in India, politicians promised relative autonomy with their own local constitution. Based on these pledges, Kashmir voted to stay with the larger nation to the south. Today, that peaceful tranquility is a lie. Islamist separatists, violent bands of hateful youth, have mounted terrorist attacks against India and Indian nationals. India has struck back with a crushing hand.

Why? Because India has tried to reverse Kashmiri autonomy. Land in Kashmir could only be bought by locals… to keep India from diluting the local political constituency. Indian forces are planted everywhere and govern with an iron fist. The Indian ruling BJP Party, a pronounced pro-Hindu political force, has looked at Kashmir as a rogue state that must be brought to heel. Locals in Jammu and Kashmir have felt betrayed for years, wanting either to unit with their fellow Muslim state – Pakistan – or at least to be granted independence from a dramatically anti-Muslim BJP mandate. The original grant of relative autonomy has become a cruel joke. The violent tension in Kashmir has continuously escalated since 1989.

With a Trump-like “double down,” in early August, the Indian government did what PM Modi pledged to do in his catering to his base by repealing the region’s statehood and special status, including the right to its own constitution. The last vestiges of autonomy were vaporized. Indians could now officially buy property in Kashmir, and the BJP Party hoped that such land purchases would finally and slowly dilute Muslim control; Jammu and Kashmir would just become an ordinary political unit in a Hindu-dominated, anti-Muslim nation.

“The political crisis over the disputed territory of Kashmir escalated Wednesday [8/7] when Pakistan said it would downgrade its diplomatic ties with India, expel the Indian ambassador and suspend trade with its regional rival… A security lockdown by Indian troops continued for a third day in Muslim-majority Kashmir… Hundreds of migrant workers began the long trek back to their villages in northern and eastern India…

“The Indian government has shut off most communications, including internet, cellphone and landline networks, with Kashmir. Thousands of additional troops were sent to the already heavily militarized region out of fear the government’s steps could spark unrest.

“In response to India’s action, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told parliament that it would expel the Indian ambassador, and the Foreign Ministry later said India had been instructed to withdraw the envoy. The decision came at a meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee led by Prime Minister Imran Khan and attended by the heads of the armed forces and senior government officials.

“Khan said at the meeting that his administration would use all diplomatic channels ‘to expose the brutal Indian racist regime’ and human rights violations in Kashmir, according to a government statement… Khan also directed Pakistan’s armed forces to remain on maximum alert.

“Islamabad also said it would review other aspects of its relations with India. It said it would ask the U.N. to pressure India to reverse its decision to downgrade Kashmir from a state to two territories. The region also lost its right to fly its own flag and make many of its own decisions.

“Pakistan said it would continue extending diplomatic, political and moral support for people living in Kashmir and their ‘right of self-determination.’ Pakistan has long called for people in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir to be allowed to vote on whether they want to sever ties with India.” Los Angeles Times, August 8^th.

In addition to many military skirmishes, India and Pakistan have fought full-on wars with each other in 1947, 1966, 1971 and 1999. India did what it could to destabilized Pakistan, so when East Pakistan – now Bangladesh – fought successfully to break away from their larger component to the west, India was delighted. “Pakistan's nuclear weapons development was in response to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971's Bangladesh Liberation War. [President Benazir Ali] Bhutto called a meeting of senior scientists and engineers on 20 January 1972, in Multan, which came to known as ‘Multan meeting.’ Bhutto was the main architect of this programme, and it was here that Bhutto orchestrated the nuclear weapons programme and rallied Pakistan's academic scientists to build an atomic bomb in three years for national survival.” Wikipedia.

While India was able to test a primitive nuclear device by 1974, the two nations didn’t get into serious nuclear testing for two decades. Today, they are thoroughly capable nuclear powers, staring menacingly at each other across a malevolent border. Tensions are escalating. Where this goes could easily become the first full-on nuclear war on earth. Think about it. Seriously.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and as unstable as the world already is, an unfortunate and unanticipated event can alter the course of history everywhere.

Far Right, Totally White, You Got That Right

More than 35,000 Ku Klux Klan members marched down

Constitution Avenue in Washington, D.C August 8, 1925

  “Mental illness and hatred pull the trigger, not the gun.” Donald Trump, August 5^th.

As President Trump decries bigotry, racism and hatred, blaming mental illness for the spate of mass shootings that have so accelerated since his ascension to power, his administration seems to be well aware of one hard fact: racists, white supremacists and bigots are a substantial core of his political, must-have base. A little rhetoric – emphasizing mental illness – is tolerable… as long as nothing changes. Promises of change, background checks instantly recanted (and back again?), are acceptable as long as they are not kept. Divide and conquer is the new GOP path to grow or at least sustain political power. The last moderates in the GOP are retiring from Congress. It is all Trump now.

You only have to look at the policies of his Department of Homeland Security to understand how unconcern our elected government is about containing domestic hate groups that we euphemistically call “domestic terrorists” – remembering that any segment of society that rises up is always labeled “terrorists” by the incumbent power. What Britain called our Revolutionary War fighters. But what we have in the United States today is hardly noble, hardly freedom fighters, just Ku Klux Klan’ers without the hoods. Maybe that’s why Trump never uses that “domestic terrorist” label to describe these mass killers.

If you want the truth about where our government stands, follow the dollars our government spends to see the priorities. “Last year, every extremist killing in the United States involved a follower of far-right hate groups or ideology. (Andres Leighton Associated Press) UNDER President Trump, 85% of the ‘countering violent extremism’ grants awarded by Homeland Security targeted Muslims and other minority groups. (Lola Gomez Austin American-Statesman).” Los Angeles Times, August 6^th.

Gun laws are never going to change in any material sense in a Republican administration. Trump is hardly going to back a massive expenditure of federal funds to rein in people in his main constituency. He’s hardly going to allocate meaningful federal funds to stem the rising tide of Russian interference, already targeting African-American and other minorities telling that their votes don’t count so why bother voting.

“In the aftermath of mass shootings in Texas and Ohio, President Trump vowed Monday to give federal law enforcement ‘whatever they need to investigate and disrupt hate crimes and domestic terrorism.

“But the Department of Homeland Security, which is charged with identifying threats and preventing domestic terrorism, has sought to redirect resources away from countering anti-government, far-right and white supremacist groups.

“The shift has come despite evidence of a growing danger. Last year, every extremist killing in the United States involved a follower of far-right hate groups or ideology, according to the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism. The FBI has noted a sharp increase in domestic terrorism cases involving white supremacists…

“Under President Obama, the office had about 40 full-time staff and a $24-million annual budget, according to Nate Snyder, an Obama administration counterterrorism official. The office now has fewer than 10 full-time employees and a budget below $3 million… ‘You have some very dedicated government employees still at the office dealing with terrorism prevention and just trying to keep the lights on,’ Snyder said.

“After Trump’s election, members of his transition team told Homeland Security officials they wanted to reorient programs meant to combat violent extremism to focus more on the threat posed by radical Islamic terrorism… But right-wing and anti-government groups have carried out more domestic attacks, and killed more Americans, than foreign terrorist groups since 2001, data show.” LA Times.

It is their time. White Supremacists feel it in the air. Outliers are massing on social media, abetted by their President, his television news outlet and his supporters. But make no mistake, terror is indeed escalating… from the inside.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and the most unfortunate patterns of history are repeating themselves within our republic… and very little is being done to stop them.

The Questions No One Seems to be Asking

Today

 

In 10 years?

The United States has a terrible record of acting first, thinking second and discovering horrific unintended consequences of bad decisions, sometimes years and years after the initial misstep. Vietnam… or…. Like when we armed the Mujahidin against the USSR who were battling in Afghanistan in the 1980s. After the Soviets pulled out and the communist empire unraveled, those same Mujahidin (well-armed and trained by our CIA) turned their weapons and training on The Great Satan: the United States. Under the protective umbrella of the local governing Taliban, these Mujahidin began a new effort, calling themselves al Qaeda, mounted a brazen attack against the Twin Towers in NYC and the Pentagon in Virginia. 9/11/01. We called it “blow-back.”

When we toppled Sunni dictator, Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s 60% majority Shiite population promptly affiliated with the 90%+ Shiite majority in Iran… and as we tried to ignore this new configuration and pretend with our ally, Iraq clearly supported the Iranian Shiite theocracy in its anti-US policies. Abandoned Sunnis, finding no representation in either Shiite-led Damascus or Baghdad, turned to a new voice to fight for their interests: the ultra-right-wing Sunni extremists who called themselves ISIS. We know what happened there. We face similar issues as we supply Saudi Arabia with the means to bomb innocents in Yemen or Israel with weapons and satellite intelligence against Palestinians. Why do terrorists obsess about killing Americans? Take a wild guess. We should call that “blow-back” too.

Our perpetual obsession, particularly from 1950 through the 1980s, to defeat “communism” resulted in some rather strong continuing waves of simmer anti-Americanism, particularly in Central and South America. Don’t think that the failing governments in Venezuela or Bolivia, for example, have forgotten the covert and less-than-covert CIA and US military efforts to topple left-leaning governments.  Strong anti-Americanism still forms the backbone of policies that get politicians elected all over Latin America. All those efforts at détente pushed by the Clinton and Obama administrations, even by George W Bush, have spun back to negative under our current efforts.

I ask what we have actually gained, other than photo ops and aggrandizing a brutal North Korean tyrant, from shutting Cuba back down, pulling out of the Iran nuclear containment accord and watching a US president step into North Korean territory for the first time. But I ask a much bigger question, right here in our own back yard, when I look at the sardine-packed children detainees, separated from their parents, sleeping on dirt or concrete floors, lacking clean running water, sanitary toilets, hot meals and even toothbrushes. Those aluminum “blankets” seem to say it all.

Healthcare officials have made no secret of the longer-term damage, physical and psychological, done to these young lives. We can feel sorry for them, we can appropriate funds to give them a better experience within their total incarceration, but it may be too late to undo everything from their version of post-traumatic stress disorder, embellished by developmental issues inherent in a parentless environment, to a growing seething anger of what has happened to them… and wondering if they will ever see their parents again. Pass me the bologna sandwich please.

Do we really believe that the scars were are searing into their minds and bodies will heal and just go away? Or are we witnessing the birth of future violent antisocial behavior, a belief that “someday I will make them pay” vengeance, or perhaps down and dirty terrorism against the United States and American targets. Are we watching future sicarios (cartel assassins), dealers and gangsters in their earliest training grounds? 

We might be making children with nascent anti-social indicia such as hyper-aggression worse, but we also just may be interfering with allowing otherwise “normal” imprisoned children to develop, to acquire more cognitive, linguistic, and regulatory skills, which would enable them to cope with developmental challenges and outgrow many normal problem behaviors. Will they ever be able to find productive lives? At least they are learning English… but… how will they use that language skill against those inflicting such pain on their young lives?

Exactly why is this good for the United States? What’s in it for most of us? What benefits do we derive by incenting thousands of young minds to hate us and carry an unwavering hatred of the United States as a core value into adulthood? Children who grow up with deep anger and nothing left to lose? How many of “us” will be killed, injured, our livelihoods decimated, homes and buildings lost, addicts created, cartels fueled with new hated-filled, super-angry soldiers, armed with guns easily bought inside a gun-crazy America? We certainly need to call that “blow-back.” 

              I’m Peter Dekom, and I am watching insane and brutal, deeply unamerican cruelty towards even children burn hatred into their minds… a hatred that will someday soon come back to haunt us all… with retaliatory violence.

 

Trump-economics: The Law of Unintended Consequences

This current economic boom began under the fiscal and monetary policies of the Obama administration, although Mr. Trump takes credit for it all. His shoveling of trillions of dollars of unnecessary tax cuts to corporate America tanked the deficit by trillions of interest-bearing dollars, resulted mostly in stock buybacks and dividends benefitting the richest in the land but produced almost no new investment capital. Put more money into a corporation, even if it is not generated by running a profitable business, and of course the stock price will soar, especially when you keep interest rates low. It has little to do with productivity.

Jobs? Unemployment numbers? If you do not peel back the surface numbers, the numbers are indeed impressive. But for 70% of working Americans, the rising costs fomented by truly ill-thought out economic policies, the net result is no result. Buying power is stagnant, and we have never had so many working-years-adults simply give up looking for work. Lots of work in the gig and part-time economy, with no benefits or job security, and lots of folks having to hold down two (or more) jobs just to make ends meet.

But what really brings home the failure of Trump’s economic policies, where multinational trade agreements are replaced by one-on-one trade negotiations and simply ignoring the most basic laws of supply and demand, are the industries that Trump has pledged to turn around to Make America Great Again. Not only has the global aversion to coal-fired power generation continued to escalate – resulting in the closure of even more U.S. coal mines and the reduction of that work force – but where Trump has imposed high tariffs to “create more jobs in the U.S.,” the blowback has produced very much the opposite result.

Some companies have been forced to shift their global manufacturing outside the United States to avoid being caught up in the retaliation from other nations against U.S. tariffs against their goods. Look at General Motors’ closing traditional plants in Ohio and opening up new manufacturing centers in Mexico. Where manufacturing “reshoring” has returned to the United States, it has not resulted in massive numbers of high-pay manufacturing jobs being recreated; robots do that work now, and the companies that own that automation now earn the money that once was paid to workers.

As climate change flooding – against the “climate change, what climate change?” policies of the Trump administration – has slammed Midwest farmers, his “national security” driven tariff wars have changed international buying patterns, allowed new agricultural competitors to replace what used to be American agricultural exports and taken a big bite out of U.S. farming income (even with his federal handouts). And as Trump proselytizes gasoline-powered vehicles with lower emissions standards, the global marketplace simply is turning it back on that business plan. 

We truly understand why Trump was a subpar student at Wharton. Understanding the complexities of economics wasn’t really his thing. Tariffs, which have historically failed to deliver as most economists will tell you, just don’t work. Simple and make for great slogans. They just don’t work. When Trump announced massive tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, he presented American metal workers with a vision of endless high-paying jobs. They would no longer have to compete with cheap foreign steel and aluminum, and America would bring those jobs back.

Construction took the first hit, but that was quickly followed by a realization that any sector of the U.S. economy that relied on these materials, from construction and car-making to manufacturing appliances, was going to have to raise prices (or reduce profits) for their end products. Another motivation for American manufacturers to move overseas. There was a moment, however brief, when a few aluminum and steelworkers got a boost, but that did not last long. Without massive new investment, the overall U.S. steel industry just is not competitive at any level.

Matt Townsend and Joe Deaux, writing for the July 9^th Los Angeles Times, drill down on the blowback in the steel industry as a good example: “President Trump’s tariffs on foreign steel have sped the decline of some of the U.S. mills he vowed to help.

“Exuberance over the levies dramatically boosted U.S. output just as the global economy was cooling, undercutting demand. That dropped prices, creating a stark divide between companies such as Nucor Corp., which uses cheaper-to-run electric-arc furnaces [pictured above] to recycle scrap into steel products, and those including U.S. Steel Corp., with more costly legacy blast furnaces.

“Since Trump announced the tariffs 16 months ago, U.S. Steel has lost almost 70% of its market value, or $5.5 billion, and idled two furnaces in mid-June that couldn’t be run profitably at the lowest prices since 2016. Meanwhile, Nucor, down about 20%, has touted $2.5 billion in expansion projects.

“The president’s actions probably ‘sped up’ an unavoidable ‘evolution,’ Nucor Chief Executive John Ferriola said in an interview last month. ‘Are some companies going to suffer? Absolutely. We’ll see some capacity go away, I’m sure of it.’

“Last July, Trump stood on a makeshift stage at a U.S. Steel mill in Granite City, Ill., and beamed as workers cheered the tariffs. At that point, the company had already restarted one of two blast furnaces at Granite City, and vowed the second would soon be brought online… ‘Workers are back on the job, and we’re once again pouring new American steel into the spine of our country,’ Trump said during the hourlong program. ‘U.S. Steel is back.’

“Since then, though, there’s been a somewhat different outcome… With the stronger steelmakers aggressively boosting capacity to grab market share, a dip in demand has left older, more costly blast furnaces at U.S. Steel and AK Steel Holding Corp. struggling to compete, even with foreign steel nudged out of the equation.

“‘Be careful what you wish for,’ said Timna Tanners, an analyst at Bank of America who has dubbed the industry’s push to add capacity without enough demand ‘Steelmageddon.’ She called it ‘ironic’ that the tariffs are ‘punishing some steel companies.’…

“A spokeswoman at U.S. Steel declined to comment. AK Steel said its products have little overlap with electric-arc furnaces, or EAFs, and that the additional capacity will further pressure imports… As expected, the tariffs reduced steel imports, creating more demand in 2018 and boosting profits. With that cash in hand, added money from Trump’s corporate tax cut and confidence that protectionism is here to stay, domestic producers began adding more capacity than they would have otherwise.

“The problem: This year, with the global economy cooling, demand — and prices — has fallen. That’s given an added incentive to EAF companies with superior profit margins and balance sheets to aggressively grab a bigger share of the market.” Trying to force massive changes in the marketplace with market-distorting and ill-conceived polices generally does not work… and Trump’s economic policies have been particularly ineffective. Consumers pay more, foreign competitors step in to replace what the United States used to export, and we make enemies with companies and nations the world over. Think they will forget anytime soon?

              I’m Peter Dekom, and if The Art of the Deal is constantly getting slammed by the law of unintended consequences, then Donald Trump is indeed the unrivaled master of that universe.

Gamed by the System

American privacy advocates, and now more than one investigating committee of Congress, are looking at how Chinese requirements for online companies doing business in the PRC are contrary to America values. What’s worse, American companies may have contributed technology to enable China to enhance their surveillance systems and facial recognition software in a way that allows the PRC to track their population in extreme detail. Or us.

That China is spending half of the world’s research money on artificial intelligence should have us all concerned. The PRC has already begun keeping digital files on their citizens, rating their allegiance to the country by everything from what they watch and read to their facial expressions when dealing with patriotic teaching in school. Bad ratings, and the citizen loses privileges and cannot travel much, even within China. Good ratings and benefits flow. Scary, huh?

In the video game world, China is deeply concerned that young people are spending (wasting?) way too much time playing video games. Any company posting its games in China faces official demands to limit playing time and to censor offending content. Besides, China wants as much information on their citizens as they can glean. Control based on big data.

“Over the last year, one game company after another has quietly acceded to Chinese government demands to limit the amount of time young people spend on their games. Chinese players of American hits such as ‘League of Legends,’ ‘Fortnite’ and ‘World of Warcraft’ are having their playtime tracked according to their national ID number. Those younger than 18 face heavy in-game penalties or outright expulsions if they play too long.

“Although it’s Chinese policy driving the restrictions, data privacy advocates say that for Americans to participate in the creation of these tools represents the crossing of a concerning new threshold… They view the moves as part of a problematic trend of Western technology firms redesigning their services to create China-friendly versions aligned with the country’s tighter social controls.

“‘For American companies, it really comes down to deciding whether or not you are willing to participate in this type of surveillance,’ said Matt Erickson, executive director of the Digital Privacy Alliance. ‘If they do choose to take part, it makes these companies not unwitting but full-blown accomplices in the Chinese police state.’” James B. Cutchin writing for the Los Angeles Times, July 23^rd.

For American video game companies seeking growth, it’s hard to overlook a nation with lots of money and 1.4 billion consumers, especially as US markets max out. Gaming in the PRC is a $36.5 billion market. Maybe behemoths can pull out, but for smaller US gaming companies, losing the PRC market could spell a survival disaster. Here’s how it works: “Access to the world’s second-largest market is a powerful incentive, but for some companies, supporting Chinese censorship and social control efforts is not a matter of choice.

“As Chinese giants buy up American tech companies, from West Hollywood-based gay dating app Grindr to Motorola’s mobile phone business, regulators are raising questions about companies’ autonomy and ability to push back on requests that might violate their ethical principles… Internal documents from Riot Games obtained by The Times offer a rare glimpse into how the Chinese government exercises influence over companies beyond its borders.

“Tencent is the world’s largest game publisher and owns large or controlling stakes in a range of industry-leading developers including ‘Clash of Clans’ maker Supercell and ‘Fortnite’ developer Epic Games… Its self-developed title [pictured above], ‘Honor of Kings,’ was the world’s highest-grossing mobile game of 2018. The game’s success made it a lightning rod for growing Chinese government concerns of gaming addiction among Chinese youth, prompting Tencent to build its first ID-tracking playtime restriction system and pledge to incorporate similar systems on all of its games in 2019.

“A digital presentation circulated via email among developers at Riot’s Santa Monica headquarters called for an ‘AAS [anti-addiction system] upgrade’ for ‘League of Legends’ in China. The presentation, authored in China, framed the request alongside accounts of growing Chinese government criticism of the gaming industry, official media attacks on Tencent, and a stark reminder that ‘League of Legends’ ‘cannot [be] free from regulation.’

“The request specified the need for features tagging teenage players in accordance with ‘future AAS regulation.’ It also asked for the ability to kick certain players from the game at specified times and restrict time-based in-game rewards.

“The presentation’s author included mock-ups of ‘anti-addiction warning’ pop-ups on ‘League of Legends,’ with messages telling players they had reached their daily gaming limits or were forbidden to play between particular hours (9 p.m. to 8 a.m.)… It did not take developers long to produce the requested features. In a December 2018 post on Chinese social media site QQ, Riot China announced an update to ‘League of Legends’ including most of the changes.” LA Times. But that same tracking software can easily be used for other governmental purposes.

There are legal and ethical questions at bay, not to mention an underlying threat to our own national security as these technologies are turned against us. “Google left the country in 2010 amid disputes over censored search results and a major hacking incident. Last year’s revelation that the company had secretly begun work on a censor-compliant Chinese search engine, code-named Project Dragonfly, sparked an outcry from Google employees and U.S. politicians. (A Google official told Congress last week that it has terminated the project.)

“Facebook has reportedly given up on entering China after years of courting Beijing failed to win the company a reprieve from a 2009 ban.

“Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have begun to call for an end to American investor money being channeled toward development of Chinese surveillance systems used in the repression of religious and ethnic minorities…

“‘There is no right to privacy in China,’ said Erickson, of the Digital Privacy Alliance. ‘Any information collected to make sure kids aren’t playing too many video games will definitely be used by the government and the police for whatever purpose they see fit.’

“Jack Poulson, founder of the advocacy group Tech Inquiry, says American tech workers — lacking visibility into executive-level decisions and other divisions of their sprawling conglomerates — aren’t always aware when they are participating in projects that might go against their values… ‘There’s no real protection in place to ensure that employees have an understanding of what they are helping build,’ he said.

“Poulson served as a senior scientist at Google’s research and machine intelligence department before publicly resigning last year in the wake of the Project Dragonfly revelations. He founded Tech Inquiry to help tech workers push back on unethical requests.” LA Times. So what should fuel our concern? That people with no legal expectation of privacy in another country far away are monitored with US software… or that this software could be turned against us here in the United States? Blowback.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and is privacy really possible anymore… what kind of control does monitoring private activities give a government that wants total adherence to it policies?