Goin’ to Kansas City, Gonna Get Me Some… Bullets

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Kansas City Shooting

Goin’ to Kansas City, Gonna Get Me Some… Bullets

“The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.” 

Gospel to the NRA

How many times has the now disgraced and resigned leader of the National Rifle Association, Wayne LaPierre, repeated those words? How many gun zealots, GOP candidates pronounced that these words are among the most basic truths in our nation? The United States is charged horrifically with the vast majority of civilian mass shootings and deaths on earth. A survey published in the International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice found that between 1998 to 2019, the US accounts for 73% of mass shootings in developed nations, and 62% of the resulting fatalities. The number of such mass shootings has only increased since then.

Oh, and one more thing: there were 800 trained good guys with guns (police and sheriff officers) on hand on Wednesday, February 14th as hundreds of thousands (a million?) of cheering Kansas City Chiefs fans marched in or watched a Kansas City, Missouri parade celebrating their home team’s Super Bowl triumph. And this array of armed police could not stop young shooters, allowed by law openly to carry their AR-15s in public, from shooting at each other, injuring 21 and killing one celebrating fan in the process. A dozen were between 6 and 15 years of age. Missouri has among this nation’s most lax gun laws and worst gun homicide statistics in the land. But to the MAGA GOP, this state’s open gun laws are a positive symbol of how the Second Amendment is supposed to work. Nothing on earth offers more conclusive proof that guns in the hands of “good guys” cannot stop mass shootings.

This wasn’t Uvalde, where cops were too scared to stop a lone shooter. The brave officers in Kansas City ran towards the perpetrators. People in the crowd attempted to tackle the shooters. Two juveniles were detained as part of an on-going investigation. Children were among the victims. But still bullets ripped though human flesh, fire from assault weapons that were as easy to buy in Missouri as buying an ice cream cone. There is no excuse for this. None. Zero.

From 1994 to 2004, there was a federal assault weapon ban, which expired because then President George W Bush refused to lead an effort to extend the law beyond its sunset provision. For over two centuries, there were no Supreme Court rulings that interpreted the Second Amendment as creating a ubiquitous and fundamental right for civilians to own guns. That Amendment was created in 1789 to allow the citizen-soldiers who won our Revolutionary War against Britain to keep their guns after the conflict ended.

But in the desperate pursuit of profits, vaporizing in the mid-1970s following the end of the Vietnam War, American gunmakers approached the NRA – an organization dedicated to gun safety and held in high regard by most Americans – to create a new, for-profit NRA-sponsored entity, to market the notion of gun-ownership as a basic American value. The NRA was wildly successful in that effort. Slowly, they sold that message to the American public, a message that resonated with GOP-dominated, heavily rural states. The notion truly did not work in cities.

The NRA was making money hand-over-fist. LaPierre was richly rewarded with an astounding array of compensation and perks. Mega-expensive suits, a mansion, private jet travel, and money, money, money. So much that the New York Attorney General began to investigate the bona fides of an entity that still maintained a non-profit operation. The result: the NRA is facing bankruptcy, and LaPierre resigned in disgrace.

Yet Republican Presidents have slowly peppered the Supreme Court with rightwing justices who have removed most barriers to gun ownership. MAGA states have gone out of their way to repeal even the most reasonable gun regulations. Starting with Heller vs DC, a 2008 Supreme Court ruling by Antonin Scalia that determined gun ownership to be that elusive fundamental right under the Second Amendment, courts have stripped away even the most common-sense gun regulations. Scalia miscited British law in creating a history of gun rights and mostly ignored the “well regulated militia” language of that amendment. A supermajority of Americans, even gunowners, favor more restrictive gun controls. The MAGA GOP (i.e., the entire Republican Party) does not, even as guns are now the leading cause of death among American children and teens.

If anything, gunowners are able to use modern technology to create even more lethal, fully automatic weapons, making the United States look increasingly like the Tommy-gun-wielding era of bootleggers in the 1920s/30s. “Nearly a century after a federal crackdown on machine guns largely ended the use of automatic weapons by criminals, they are back on the rise thanks to Glock switches, an illegal modification that lets Glock-brand pistols fire continuously with one trigger pull… Glock switches are about the size of a thumbnail, easy to install, and typically sell for between $50 and $100. Authorities have struggled to regulate them as they have exploded in popularity recently because they can be manufactured cheaply and quickly on 3-D printers. Previously, most Glock switches were imported to the U.S. from other countries.

“‘They’re easily made, they are non-traceable and the profit margin is so high,’ said Jeff Boshek, special agent in charge of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ Dallas field division… Similar devices can make other pistols and AR-15-style rifles fire automatically, but those aren’t as commonly used in violent crimes.” The Wall Street Journal, February 17th. Cops are often outgunned by perps with superior weapons. What’s even worse, state laws like “stand your ground” statutes encourage gun owners to resort to killing vs avoiding the confrontation. Open-carry and even permitless concealed weapons laws are multiplying.

In 1996, after a mass shooting, even “wild, wild west” Australia was able to get the murder rates down with sensible gun laws, literally taking guns off the streets. This American permissiveness is a product of malign judicial activism from rightwing judges in the 21st century. If it takes a constitutional amendment, sobeit. This slaughter cannot continue!

I’m Peter Dekom, and the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is sensible gun control that does not give general access to virtually an unlimited array of guns.

Can Post-WWII America Win Wars of Attrition?

 

The Korean War ended in an armistice; technically we are still at war with North Korea. Like France and its defeat at Dien Bien Phu in 1954, facing the North Vietnamese Army and its Viet Cong surrogates, the United States simply could not sustain a lingering war in Vietnam. We claimed victory in Iraq after deposing Sadem Husein, but today, that nation is squarely in the Iranian camp, telling the United States to stop operating within its borders. In our longest war, we pushed the Taliban out of Afghanistan only to lose decades later to… er… the Taliban. We simply do not seem able to win asymmetric wars of attrition against passional local zealots… or “patriots” if you ask them.

The primary reasons for our litany of failures, that Israel is facing right now, is a combination of the “nothing left to lose” “insurgents” driven by passion and faith against our willingness to sustain a very long military commitment for distant wars from vastly different cultural settings. Locals usually know the terrain far better than do we, often place a very different premium on human life itself (some believe they will be rewarded in heaven for dying in support of their cause) and have local/cultural/religious roots that may be centuries in the making. We are seen as colonial invaders who are seeking local control in areas where regional residents’ goals are seldom well served.

Where we have interfered, it is often to preserve regional influence, protect valuable natural resources (usually oil), and often to protect regional repressive regimes against other regional repressive regimes. Fear of ideological encirclement – like our former anti-communist fear of nations falling like “dominoes” to radical left wing, anti-Western despots. We have a massive military, which may fare better when matched to other comparable militaries, often in the form of mutually assured destruction. But when it comes to battling insurgents, bombing those forces into the ground has seldom worked. Loathe to deploy our own troops on the ground, we tend to deploy strategies that are dependent on military aircraft, missiles, drones and artillery without much in the way of boots on the ground. We’ve been in the region a very long time.

Ally Israel has swatted more than a few wasps’ nests of late where the United States (and some of our western allies) are viewed by many regional (and even international) powers as puppet-masters pulling Israeli strings. Even as this is hardly the case, Israel’s dependence on US military aid and our deployment of two of our seven numbered naval task forces in the region speaks otherwise. Holding Iran at arm’s length (sort of) and focusing mainly on her surrogate terrorist organizations in the region has placed the primary burden on those fleets. Case in point: the extended use of naval task forces built around our nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The US and her European partners have recently focused on a section of Yemen (bordering the Red Sea access to the Suez Canal) controlled by Shiite militia, Iranian surrogates, who have been targeting ocean freight traffic heading to the Mediterranean with missiles and drones. We seem to have very limited options if we must use US military force directly.

Indeed, as long as the Gaza conflict remains violent and unresolved, the stress and strain on those US carrier fleets is mounting by the day. Writing for Time Magazine February 12th, Gil BarndollarLuke Cocchi describes what he calls The U.S. Navy Is Sinking in Middle East Sand: “The U.S. has a range of options for dealing with Yemen’s Houthis, none of them good. But a long campaign of naval strikes and interception against them, as is now being floated by the Biden Administration and outside experts , is certainly the worst response of all. That’s because it means the U.S. Navy continuing to sink into Middle East sand for an unachievable goal all while losing ground in the far-more important Pacific.

“Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have summoned Tomahawk cruise missiles and Top Gun pilots from the deck of the USS Eisenhower. The newly-renamed Operation Poseidon Archer is just two weeks old, and the Biden Administration is already drawing up plans for a longer effort, despite admitting that defeating the Houthis is not viable. There is a risk of escalation in the Middle East, especially with the death of three U.S. soldiers after a drone strike in Jordan. But the effects on the U.S. Navy will be predictable, because they have all happened before: overworked ships and sailors, expenditure of precious precision munitions, and a continued punt on the pivot to the Pacific…

“Because of this relentless demand, carriers often have their deployments extended or are ‘double-pumped,’ conducting back-to-back deployments without a major maintenance period in between. The last three carriers deployed in the Mediterranean were all extended: the USS Gerald R. Ford was at sea for 239 days, the USS Harry S. Truman for 285, and the USS George H. W. Bush for 257. This overwork has consequences. After the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower did two sets of double pumps, its subsequent 14-month maintenance period ballooned to 23 months because of wear and tear…

“The future looks grim for the overworked fleet. Like the rest of the U.S. military, the Navy is facing an unprecedented recruiting crisis , fueled in part by fatigue from time away from home during extended deployments. In an all-volunteer force, sailors will vote with their feet. A shrinking fleet is the likely outcome, regardless of how many warships America has.

“The most immediate danger of overstretch, though, is munitions not manpower. The opening Jan. 12 strike on the Houthis expended 80 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, more than half the missile’s annual production . In the near term, expending hundreds of these missiles in a tertiary operation like Prosperity Guardian could have major impacts in a far more important theater in the Pacific. Precision strike missiles like the Tomahawk are vital to the U.S. military’s ability to deter, and if necessary, defeat a Chinese attack in the Pacific—a contingency where the Navy will be carrying most of the fight, unlike in America’s Middle East wars. The U.S. may already lack sufficient precision munitions for a shooting war with China. The Navy’s newest Middle East operation adds further risk to the service’s most essential mission.”

As our capital ships continue to be severely taxed, as our local shipbuilding is in decline, China, although suffering significant economic strife across the board, is still focused on expanding an all-purpose navy plus a massive global commercial fleet: “‘The scale [of China’s shipbuilding] is just almost hard to fathom,’ said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security whose research focuses on maritime competition. ‘The degree to which it dwarfs American shipbuilding is just unbelievable.’” WSJ, February 13th.

“On September 10, 2001, the U.S. was the unchallenged global superpower, with naval preeminence as the bedrock of American military dominance. The U.S. Navy outgunned China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) by more than 100 warships . China had no aircraft carriers and just 21 diesel submarines … Some 20 years later, America’s sailors look out at a different world. PLAN is now the world’s largest navy (though the U.S. Navy still boasts more tonnage). China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian , is nearing its sea trials . In the time since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, PLAN has commissioned 313 ships . Recent wargames suggest the U.S. Navy would struggle mightily to defeat a Chinese fleet that was an afterthought just two decades ago.” WSJ, February 12th.

If this limited Middle Eastern military operation is draining our resources at an alarming rate, pulling our main strike force fleets away from China’s regional claims to neighboring seas, how much more would it take to neutralize US effectiveness in a larger confrontation? That a relatively small rebel contingent can tie up major US military forces in an indefinite struggle should tell us that what were are doing, what we have been doing for a long time, just might not be the wisest approach. Particularly when you realize that taking out a single major US aircraft carrier, carrying 4-5,000 sailors and airmen with 70 to 90 of the most expensive missile-and bomb laden aircraft imaginable, would be a casualty and mega-billion-dollar catastrophe. Are we fighting new asymmetrical wars with outdated mega-weapons? Can we do both?

I’m Peter Dekom, and while we have the most powerful naval and air strike capacity ever assembled – for now – is our military capacity able to deal with long, withering regional conflicts any better than well-supplied local insurrectionists?

The Great Superpower Unraveling

 

Over the course of history, powerful nations with vast military resources, have been undone, fading into history books with abstract modern lessons, devoid of the pain of those who lived through those transitional years. Ancient Egypt. Sparta and Athens. Alexander the Great. Rome. Carthage. Persia. Byzantine empire. Ottoman Empire. European colonial powers (Britain, France, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium and Germany). Numerous Chinese dynasties. Napoleonic conquests. The Austro-Hungarian Empire. Prussia/Germany. Russia. The British Empire upon which the sun never set. Japan. The Soviet Union.

Today, it’s the People’s Republic of China, Russia and the United States that may bristle with state-of-the-art massive militaries facing internal struggles that suggest an end-game clock is nearing zero hour. Each is strong enough to mount global destruction but strong not enough to bind their nations into sustainable integral states. It is an unraveling born at the beginning of the 21st century and further chiseled away by a pandemic, climate change and a mounting trend towards autocracy dependent on the strategy of a single narcissistic strongman, who appears to be wrong in each of these powerhouses.

Even strategic alliances are fraying at the edges, none more obvious than the United States and its trade and defense treaties. As pointed out by the February 11th NPR covering a February 10th Trump campaign rally in South Carolina: “If we don't pay [e.g., maintain a full NATO military commitment] and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?," Trump recalled another country's leader asking while him while he was president. "No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want."

The current session of Congress provides mathematical evidence that our nation just may have become completely ungovernable. Not only are GOP Senators – who were involved in architecting a bi-partisan border immigration reform bill combined with a military aid package to Israel and Ukraine – reversing themselves at the behest of their 91 count criminally indicted likely presidential nominee, but the GOP-dominated House of Representatives has ground legislation to virtual halt. Implemented by their revolving door of Speakers, the GOP led House has led a congressional track record that has produced a mere 10% of the legislation produced, on average, by any recent Congress.

Driven by conspiracy theories and even a sizeable constituency of evangelical supporters who believe that Donald Trump has been ordained by God to rule the United States with an iron fist, the nation faces an existential threat to its democratic form of governance in the upcoming election. No matter the result, America is a hopelessly divided red/blue morass of mutual hatred. See my recent Overlap – Two Nations Occupying the Same Space blog for a more detailed review of this horrific reality. Our European allies are aghast. Israel’s Prime Minister is counting on a dysfunctional US Congress to support his monstrous retaliation in Gaza without meaningful objection… and replace an “elderly” Joe Biden with a “poor memory” (as described by a Trump-appointed federal prosecutor reviewing misplaced top-secret documents) with Netanyahu’s brother in arms, Donald Trump.

Russia’s debacle with its war in Ukraine is self-evident, even as Vladimir Putin expects Trump to be elected and ensure that US support for Kyiv is ended for good… and NATO neutralized. His economy is in shambles, Russia needs weapons supplied by others, unable to manufacture enough locally, and Putin only maintains power with severe and brutal repression. The masses of returning body bags of Russian troops are finally being noticed across all of Russia. Russia is no longer the powerhouse it was just a few years ago. But it is Russian ally China that experiencing what was never expected… a collapse of the centrally directed economy.

While China is experiencing some success in unexpected ways – its transition to wind and solar power is significantly ahead of schedule – her economy is teetering. Foreign investment is fleeing in droves as Xi’s mismanagement of his economy has seen the local stock market lose an estimated $7 trillion. Xi’s “zero tolerance” policy during the pandemic, and even thereafter, shut down the China machine. Over-construction of residential real estate, companies now foundering with missing leadership and a serious banking debt problem trashed the PRC’s economic miracle. Millions of young workers, many college graduates, are either unemployed or seriously underemployed. Xi’s micromanaged economic dream is trembling with issues. That only ramped up Xi’s efforts to distract his people by reciting global threats and promising the taking of Taiwan (which the PRC always claimed), violently if needed, as part of the “one-China” policy that even the US accepted.

Living in the here and now, it’s hard to assess the aggregate impact of these macro-social and economic variables. People are being slaughtered in conflicts funded by the superpowers, who are themselves threatened by the rise of Islamist states. Destabilization among superpowers with no clear positive solutions apparent anywhere will continue to create death and suffering across a most volatile planet, as climate change continues to slam into the seeming collective denial that has slowed a meaningful response. Are we just another era of historical transition, a time not unlike the pain Rome suffered in 476 AD as barbarians ended the empire, or is this a massively worse time in history given available weapons and the involvement of every nation on earth?

I’m Peter Dekom, and I suspect we finally understand why history has recorded so much ruin; self-destruction just may be a rule among human beings.

But Do We Really Mean It?

 

When our soldiers stationed at their base in Jordan were attacked and killed by a drone built in Iran, supplied as a part of that theocracy’s overall goals of becoming the dominant Islamic force in the region, destroying the nation of Israel and driving the West, particularly the United States, entirely out of the region, Republicans and Democrats alike blamed Teheran for their unbridled long-term commitment to supply Islamic militants with weapons and financial support.

There is no doubt that Iran’s support has been fundamental to the very survival of terrorist groups, from the Houthis in Yemen shelling shipping in the Red Sea, Hezbollah in various states (especially Lebanon) attacking US and Israeli interests to Hamas as it brutally attacked Israel on October 7th. Iran was not the direct mover; instead, it relied and relies on its surrogate nations to disrupt, destroy and foment Iran’s will around the region. We are deeply angered by Iran’s continuing to pump missiles, drones, munitions, weapons and hard cash into terrorist enclaves, as we blame them for the death and destruction their weapons have wrought. Indeed, Iran is even resupplying Russia with sophisticated weapons that they know will be used against Ukraine.

Without those munitions, it is very likely that those terrorist organizations would lack their obviously powerful military abilities against us and our allies. One of our most reliable regional allies, Israel, has been viewed as an American surrogate in the Middle East by a very large percentage of people everywhere. Israel’s most effective missile defense system, the Iron Dome, relies heavily on American technology and counterstrike missiles. While Israel manufactures much of its own weaponry, it still relies heavily on US-made military hardware to arm its IDF forces. No secret.

While the United States accepts that Israel is justified in protecting itself from attack and pursuing its attackers in retaliation, as US President Joe Biden has framed their alarming use of force against Palestinian shield to get to Hama military targets as “over the top,” it seems as if Israel has painted itself into an ultra-violent corner where mass civilian deaths are reaching absurdly unacceptable levels.

The International Court of Justice, acting on a case filed by South Africa against Israel for possible genocide against Palestinians, danced around a direct accusation against Israel as having committed genocide just based on the huge numbers of civilian casualties (as of this writing, there have been approximately 30 thousand Palestinians killed). Instead, in late January, the ICJ ordered Israel to take action to prevent acts of genocide as it wages war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip but stopped short of calling for an immediate ceasefire.

As our Congress debates, among other major issues, the approval of another massive military aid package for Israel, younger Americans, even Jews, were questioning why we were still supplying weapons we know would be used to slaughter civilians and decimate entire cities in Gaza. Indeed, as Joe Biden pushed his campaign into swing state Michigan, home to the largest ethnically Arab American demographic, he was shunned, picketed as tens of thousands of protestors vowed not to support his reelection.

For many, it was hard to understand how we could hold Iran responsible for American deaths, shipping disruptions and supporting terrorism that kills thousands of innocents every year, and pretend that the United States was not equally responsible for supplying Israel with the weapons that enabled it to decimate the civilian population in Gaza. For all the soft talk, from Secretary of State Andrew Blinken and even in direct communications between Biden and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel doubled down on its intention to tame Gaza and impose its iron fist on any surviving nation. A separate Palestinian state was completely rejected.

Biden was having an exceptionally difficult time as the US itself was sharply divided on this difficult schism of opinion. Even Hillary Clinton said, in various recent media interviews, that “Netanyahu has to go!” The elephant in the room was outgrowing the room and threatening the Democratic Party. So, in a carefully phrased executive order, Biden “appeared to ease a split among Democrats over his military support for Israel’s war in Gaza, with lawmakers on Friday praising the order authorizing a swift cutoff of military aid to countries that violate international protections of civilians.

“For Biden, the commitment to conditioning U.S. military aid for Israel and other allies and strategic partners will help him shore up support among center-left Senate Democrats for his proposed $95-billion supplemental assistance package, which is aimed primarily at military aid for Ukraine in its war with Russia and for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza…

“The supply of air defense systems and some other defensive gear is exempted. While supporters say the stringent language of the order will limit the ability of presidential administrations to evade the spirit of the measure, the order does allow administrations to waive the requirements in ‘rare and extraordinary circumstances.’…The Biden administration has frustrated some Senate Democrats during Israel’s war in Gaza by declaring a national security emergency to rush military aid to Israel, skirting the usual process of congressional notification.

“The administration also has quietly lobbied against moves by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and others to attach conditions to military aid to Israel in the supplemental legislation, with the idea of pressuring Israel to do more to spare Palestinian civilians.” Associated Press, February 10th. But past presidents have been more direct in asserting pressure against Israeli excess. Will Netanyahu and his ultra-rightwing government be moved at all unless there is a massive cut in US military aid absent more realistic acceptance to a genuine peaceful solution? Is that even possible given what has occurred? Make no mistake, a very large segment of the world believes that everything Israel has done in Gaza was as a surrogate of callous American dominance.

I’m Peter Dekom, and for those who say all of this needs more time to play out, how high does the civilian body count have to rise before we draw our own line in the sand?

What Does It Take to Make Americans Care About the Huge Threat to Our Survival?

Atmospheric rivers drowning large sections of the country? “Thousand and Hundreds of Years” events that now happen several times a year? Super-intense hurricanes and tornados? Homes crashing off coastal cliffs, streets that really flood after almost every rain? Wildfires that consume entire communities and massive forests? Increasingly uncomfortable summer heat? Vast tracks of land becoming deserts? Diseases migrating with insects seeking their ideal temperatures? Or none of the above? If you are Gen Z and maybe Gen Y, all of the above matter. If you are older and Republican, it’s that we cannot afford to adapt to the mythology of immediate climate change destruction; there are other explanations for those mega- “natural” disasters.

By simply ignoring the intensifying aspects of climate change on other climate patterns – such as El Niño (a warm water cycle which causes the Pacific jet stream to move south) and La Niña (where trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia, which causes our coastal upwelling, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface) – and attributing the complex climate interaction to non-climate change variables, many climate change deniers are content to live with that simplistic and scientifically incorrect explanation alone.

Nature does not seem to care. The laws of physics are not subject to popularity contests or leadership that either does too little too late… nothing at all… of simply encourages personal and business practices that make matters worse. While alternative energy saved the Texas grid this winter and as statistics tell us that this energy is creating far more jobs than the traditional fossil fuel industry, red America is pushing back against a green future and trying desperately to return us to dependence on greenhouse gas emitting fossil fuel extraction.

Even greedy entrepreneurs who found unprecedented wealth in the alternative energy sector appear to be more interested in pursuing new potential money-makers than in sticking to their original vectors. “At first, the electric automaker, founded 20 years ago, was to many investors and fans the answer to climate change, especially as Elon Musk showed the world that a zero-emissions vehicle could be both cool and profitable. At one point, he said helping to reduce the risk of catastrophic climate change is why Tesla ‘exists.’

“As time wore on and others began chasing the EV dream, Musk positioned Tesla as something else, a gateway for artificial intelligence to move from the digital world into the physical world through driverless cars and then humanoid robots.” Wall Street Journal, February 10th. Threatened with a Delaware court’s determination that Musk’s board approved $56 billion compensation package was completely unjustified, Musk seems ready to abandon Tesla and explore his new quest in an entirely new entity. Apparently, being on the verge of being one of America’s first trillionaires is his real target. Musk has recast himself as an ultra-rightwing zealot.

While those older climate change patterns really do exist – we’re in an El Niño cycle with a La Niña event likely immediately to follow, a sequence that is likely to play havoc across our land – there are so many intensive disruptions in our world that perhaps we have become jaded and inured to those disasters. Besides, as many in the South believe, those fires and atmospheric rivers are a West Coast thang. Not really, and for those jeering at our Pacific Ocean mess, standby for an Atlantic Ocean climate change event that is anything but routine: A long-term looming change in what had been a fairly stable current pattern in the Atlantic. Writing for CNN.com (February 9th), Laura Paddison explains:

“A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather — leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others… Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an early warning signal for the collapse of these currents, according to the study published Friday [2/9] in the journal Science Advances. And as the planet warms, there are already indications it is heading in this direction.

“The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the AMOC) — of which the Gulf Stream is part — works like a giant global conveyor belt, taking warm water from the tropics toward the far North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southward… The currents carry heat and nutrients to different areas of the globe and play a vital role in keeping the climate of large parts of the Northern Hemisphere relatively mild.

“For decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the circulation’s stability as climate change warms the ocean and melts ice, disrupting the balance of heat and salt that determines the currents’ strength… The impacts of the AMOC’s collapse could be catastrophic. Some parts of Europe might see temperatures plunge by up to 30 degrees Celsius over a century, the study finds, leading to a completely different climate over the course of just a decade or two… ‘No realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes,’ the study authors write.

“Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, on the other hand, could see increased warming, while the Amazon’s wet and dry seasons could flip, causing serious disruption to the ecosystem… The AMOC’s collapse could also cause sea levels to surge by around 1 meter (3.3 feet), van Westen said… Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany, who was not involved with the study, said it was ‘a major advance in AMOC stability science.’

“‘It confirms that the AMOC has a tipping point beyond which it breaks down if the Northern Atlantic Ocean is diluted with freshwater,’ he told CNN… Previous studies finding the AMOC’s tipping point used much simpler models, he said, giving hope to some scientists that it might not be found under more complex models… This study crushes those hopes, Rahmstorf said.”

Are we certain that this alteration in vital Atlantic currents is going to happen? We cannot be 100% certain. But as we have ignored past projected changes in ocean currents, which have come to pass, there is little reason for optimism here. That January was the warmest on record should serve as a warning to us all. And if you think the Earth doesn’t change like that, perhaps you did not study the impact of the last (and continuing) ice age – Quaternary glaciation period – a phenomenon that reshaped the surface of our planet and is still with us as the ice-covered continent, Antarctica, illustrates. Exactly how much evidence do we need?

I’m Peter Dekom, and with various “tipping points” looming, some perhaps past, an eventual “oops, we miscalculated” will not fix the stupidity we are allowing to change the habitability of our planet.

Aahhhchooo – Wanna… Go for Coffee on Our Break? Aahhhchooo

  

Aahhhchooo – Wanna… Go for Coffee on Our Break? – Aahhhchooo

In a World of Roiling Contagions. Is “Rest and Recover” the New “Duck and Cover”?

We’ve all seen enough pictures of the spikey COVID-19 and a few variants, but the photos above are of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and the current flu virus happily at work across the land… particularly in open office spacew like the last picture. And yes, Murgatroyd, these viruses can be severe, are mostly miserable, always highly contagious and they can kill or leave lasting damage. Not that COVID-19 is a fun infection either, and there are more than enough continuing fatalities and long-COVID results out there. But as there is a press to bring people back to the office, the plant… the generic workplace.

Notwithstanding tales from pure remote work, hybrid work and “health-driven” precautions, there are plenty of companies demanding that workers spend all or most of their time back in their physical workplace. In some professions – like healthcare and construction – being at the workplace is essential. In others – like the legal, corporate planning and marketing – remote work is an easy alternative. With the cost of childcare often the difference between a parent’s working or not working, the ability to work from home is often determinative. With residential housing costs soaring in major cities, a horde of office workers have moved to cost-friendly locations, often quite far away and even in other states or countries.

In some major cities – like San Francisco and Atlanta – echoes in empty office suites portend a continued decline in office rentals… and hence the value of the buildings themselves. All this as residential housing is making life very expensive for all but those who bought their homes many years ago. Lots of workers, however, still fear the increasing virility of contagious diseases that seem to have redefined modern life. Going work in a normal office space can kill you.

Callum Borchers, writing for the February 8th Wall Street Journal, addresses this push-pull effect on corporate workspace reality: “Subtly or explicitly, bosses sometimes urge employees to ignore minor symptoms. Their own reluctance to take sick days can signal that subordinates are expected to gut it out. Asking whether an employee feels well enough to work from home, instead of immediately granting a day off, can also apply pressure. So can harping on how inconvenient it is and that co-workers will have to pick up the slack.

“In a January survey of 1,000 U.S. managers by Resume Builder, one-fifth said they encourage under-the-weather employees to come to the office. Almost a quarter said they suspect workers lie about being sick or exaggerate the severity of their illnesses… Managers frustrated by the many ways we work now are trying to gain a sense of control over their people, says Stacie Haller, Resume Builder’s chief career adviser. The survey results are consistent with others that show managers often doubt whether their charges are giving full effort while working from home.

“Workers can’t win, Haller says. They feel shamed by bosses if they call in sick or shamed by colleagues if they show up contagious… Some employees take sick days whenever they sniffle or need a mental break. About 30% of white-collar workers with access to paid sick leave used it last year, up from 21% in 2019, according to HR-software company Gusto. That still means most people don’t take sick time.

“Laptop-bound workers often sign on from home rather than call in sick, typing and tissue-blowing in their pajamas. Even Covid isn’t a slam-dunk reason to miss work anymore if symptoms aren’t severe…. (Speaking of slam dunks: The sneakers Michael Jordan wore during his famous ‘flu game’—he scored 38 points with a 103-degree fever in Game 5 of the 1997 NBA Finals—sold for $1.38 million last summer. Look no further for evidence that we still fetishize toughing it out.)

“In certain cities, sick-shaming bosses risk blow back. In New York City and Washington, D.C., for example, it is illegal to ask employees for doctors’ notes after brief absences… Even less direct hassling could be grounds for a complaint, says Vanessa Matsis-McCready, vice president of human resources at Engage PEO, which handles HR functions for small and midsize businesses. A general sense that a department’s culture is to push through sickness is enough to report to HR, she said. It may not be enough to win a grievance case, but businesses can pay a price in reputation and morale.”

In Los Angeles, employees and visitors to hospitals and other healthcare facilities are once again required to mask up. But in “anti-woke” red states, wearing a mask other than in surgery is considered leftwing wokeism. If you watched the Grammys recently, perhaps you missed the superspreader after-effects. Airline travel carries renewed risks. But those events/facilities are more optional than conforming to the requirements of your employer to keep your job. It’s pretty obvious that viruses and bacteria are wildly in favor of the back-to-the-workplace mandates.

I’m Peter Dekom, and biggest shortage in the United States today appears to be commonsense.

Overlap – Two Nations Occupying the Same Space

The last time the United States was this polarized, we started shooting at each other. Hundreds of thousands of Americans were killed (a full 2% of the population perished). The Union won; the rebels were crushed. Slavery ended. Today, the Constitution still does not provide any mechanism for secession. People today still wave Confederate flags and tout the “nobility” of an army hell-bent on destroying the country. As noted in the Civil War, as the South tried to justify a breakaway, there has never been a “compact” between the federal government and states when they join the Union, not even the Republic of Texas.

Even assuming there were a way to sever ties between a state and the federal government, exactly how would we deal with: the national debt, accrued Social Security and Medicare obligations, nuclear weapons and our military assets/personnel, the currency, trade agreements and treaties with other nations, enforcement of criminal and civil laws for existing contracts and convictions, etc., etc.?

But the schisms run deep. We have two rather distinct and absolutely incompatible philosophies of governance living under one national roof. In overly general terms, we have a white-dominated, rural/religious values movement vs a more diversely powered faction with strong secular/urban leanings. There are lots of people in the middle, but the battling between the above is deeply pronounced and profoundly divisive. The former, MAGA labeled faction, is strong on faith, generally lower on education and science. The latter is more heavily influenced by science and personal liberty, usually resentful of people who threaten their personal choices. To achieve rural/religious supremacy, the MAGA faction is willing to end democratic majority rule.

Just listening to the Supreme Court on February 8th seemed to suggest a feeling across the justices, an out-and-out fear, that they could provoke a civil war by following the plain language of section 3 (the insurrection disqualification clause) of the 14th Amendment, an interpretation which any knowledgeable understanding of contextual history would make even more evident. Pretending that allowing a single state to decide an election, for example, would be bad law did not stop the court in 2000 when it allowed Florida’s voting tabulation in Bush vs Gore to determine the presidency.

These alternative views of America are measurably divergent, as illustrated by a national attitudinal survey conducted by Pew Research Center from Jan. 16 to Jan. 21 among 5,140 adults, published on February 1st. The above chart from that survey shows the left/right skew in how Americans from differing parties view the listed institutions.

The irony in those results is that both factions held banks, financial institutions and large corporations in deep disregard and distrust. Yet the MAGA right continues to fight for more deregulation and tax cuts for those same institutions, arguing for fewer benefits to average Americans to keep those taxes for the rich low. The Trump-era 2017 corporate tax rate reduction (from 35% down to 21%) failed to create the promised high-paying jobs and added trillions to the national deficit. MAGA wants more of that.

Many scholars have opined that unless voters can agree on underlying facts, which is a big ask for people who instead rely on their religious beliefs or outsource their opinions to fact-averse leaders, elections lose their significance… or meaning. Looking at passionate believers among pizza-gate, Taylor Swift as a Pentagon operative, the deep state axioms of Q-Anon and the belief that that Donald Trump was ordained by God to rule the United States, it’s easy to see why election deniers form a massive slice of our constituency. It is also why an election, literally putting democracy itself effectively on the ballot, is so tenuous.

As Republicans attempt to impeach Joe Biden, call for his “poor memory” (on par with Donald Trump’s) to result in a 25th Amendment removal from office, and attempt to impeach homeland security chief Alejandro Mayorkas, Congressional viability is itself very much in doubt as this Congress has passed only 10% (or less) of bills when compared to other recent congressional sessions. This dysfunction – a supercharged disconnect mired in angry passion from well-armed adherents – is sufficient to scare even the US Supreme Court from even a most logical and necessary conclusion… because that decision might alienate Trump and his base.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we live in most interesting times… that just might see the end of the United States as a functioning democracy as it transitions to autocracy.

Uneasy, Unstable and Expensive – Economic Perception vs Reality

“I feel like no matter what they tell me about the economy, they don’t really know, because they don’t have a coherent plan.” 

White collar professional Theresa Foster in Albany, NY

“Even though I’m OK right now, there’s a sense it could all go away in a second.” 

 Ohio nurse, Kristine Funck

“You could argue unemployment is 3.7%, but who cares with this level of uncertainty?... Because that’s what people are feeling. They’re not feeling hope. They’re not feeling one country. They’re feeling a divisive, divided United States of America… What people are sensing is not whether the inflation is becoming moderate; it’s that the dark clouds remain.” 

Nashville restaurant owner, Alfredo Arguello

“There’s some justification for some negativity about the economy, but nothing resembling the amount of negativity seen in some of the survey data.” 

Jason Furman, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama.

“I don’t think the American dream still exists… I don’t think it’s attainable anymore. Because you need money to make money, and I think you either start out ahead or you’re constantly playing catch-up now.” 

A college student aspiring to be a teacher.

“We find that Republicans cheer louder when their party is in control and boo louder when their party is out of control,’’ 

Stanford University economics professor and Obama/Biden advisor Neale Mahoney, and Ryan Cummings, a Ph.D. student, in a November Substack posting.

The above quotes – gathered by Aaron Zitner, Amara Omeokwe, Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign in a February 7th article in The Wall Street Journal – are a very good summary of the mood of the nation. Major company CEOs have never seen compensation increases and top corporations have never experienced soaring profits at this level since WWII. Income inequality has never been so pronounced. Yet Americans are finding college is no longer a guaranteed path to higher pay, especially when the cost of student loans is out of control. While housing has stopped its super-price rise, rent and mortgages have accelerated forced downsizing and homelessness across the land. Faith in governments’ ability to right this ship is plunging.

As I have said before, upward mobility in the US has been relegated to the history books. “Interviews with Americans across the country—some affluent, some just scraping by; some with advanced degrees and others with blue-collar jobs; some Republican, some Democrat—show they are weighed down by fears of an unpredictable world in which no one in government or business is competent to steer the nation through precarious times… Some 78% of Americans said they aren’t confident their children’s lives will be better than their own, a Journal-NORC survey found last year. That’s a record in surveys dating to 1990. Only 36% said the American dream—the idea that anyone can get ahead with hard work—still holds true, down from 53% who had said so about a decade earlier, another Journal-NORC poll found.” WSJ

In hard numbers, and most certainly by comparison with most of the rest of the world, the US economy is far and away the most successful. The political disconnect, exacerbated by people only listening to and watching news sources that are consistent with their views, has created a self-fulfilling push-pull where the very solutions that many voters demand are causing precisely the horribles they rail against the most. Exactly how does cutting immigration lower prices? Clearly it doesn’t. While there are reasonable immigration solutions on both sides of the aisle – see my recent Some GOP Ideas on Immigration Make a Lot of Sense blog – there is a strong MAGA incentive to make certain there is no successful immigration reform; they do not want to lose a major campaign advantage against Joe Biden on the single issue they believe will galvanize their own political support.

It's hard to ignore the price increases in… almost everything… but food, fuel and housing reside in the world of instability and/or sticker shock. “There’s a striking disconnect between the widely shared pessimism among Americans and measures that show the economy is actually robust. Consumers are spending briskly—behavior that suggests optimism, not retrenchment. Inflation has tempered. Unemployment has been below 4% for 24 straight months, the longest such stretch since the 1960s…

“While many groups of Americans have made gains during the pandemic recovery, some cracks have emerged… Americans in lower-paying industries saw some of the strongest pay raises in recent years, but wage growth is now slowing overall, and more so for these workers. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that low-income households disproportionately bear the brunt of inflation, in part because of the high share of their income that goes toward food, gas and rent… While inflation has cooled substantially from its peak in 2022, wage growth only began to outpace price increases in mid-2023, meaning many Americans are still reeling from a long stretch in which it felt like their earnings couldn’t go far enough…

“The unemployment rate remains at near-record lows, but layoffs have hit some sectors of the economy with force, including technology and some other white-collar fields, such as accounting and media… [Also many] Americans point to structural changes in the economy that have left them anxious about the future. The decline of company pensions has shifted more of the risk of funding retirement from employers to workers.” WSJ. Social Security seems teetering.

Several red states, particularly Texas, tout a constitutionally impossibility of secession. Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott is openly defying a US Supreme Court ruling negating his claim to Texas’ controlling its international border with Mexico, excluding federal authorities’ access. Feelings of stability now follow the political bent of the relevant voters. “One factor in the downbeat outlook is that many Americans view the economy through a political lens. Their opinion is more optimistic when the party of their choice holds the White House.

“In the weeks before the 2016 election, only 11% of Republicans rated the economy as excellent or good, CNBC polling found. That jumped to 26% right after the election, even before Donald Trump was sworn in as president, and rose to 73% within a year. By contrast, Democratic views of the economy turned more negative over the same period…Some analysts find signs that the partisan skew in views of the economy is particularly powerful now, with Biden in the White House, because Republicans are more likely than Democrats to adopt a negative view when their party is out of power.” WSJ.

Each of the blue and red constituencies is constantly hammered with political messages slamming or praising the state of the nation, each filtering out the opposite party’s message. Clearly, MAGA GOP voters have been subject to the most consistent negativity, much of it mired in slogans without factual support, but a battle between two geriatric candidates, one seemingly feeble and the other hopelessly corrupt and narcissistic, is easy prey for foreign powers using AI-driven mis- and dis-information to disrupt our election… with relative ease. We seem to be content killing ourselves with no desire to rebuild the nation… together.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we are so politically motivated by misshapen political messages that many are willing to vote for autocracy and policies that further destabilize our economic values, an exercise in mega-self-destruction.

Some GOP Ideas on Immigration Make a Lot of Sense

 

Somewhere between Taylor Swift conspiracies and Jewish space lasers causing forest fires, there actually are pragmatic GOP suggestions, solutions with bipartisan support, that offer partial stress relief with genuine immigration policies. For a nation of immigrants, we have becoming increasingly hostile to immigrants at all levels. It’s so easy to see images of clearly out-of-control accumulations of wannabe immigrants at our southern border… and just freak out, demanding an immediate stop to it all. It’s even easier if you are a white incumbent American worrying about getting your voting control diluted somehow… even if that means “electing” a white supremacist facing criminal convictions as the next president (perhaps only president until he dies or appoints his son to take over).

But we have been struggling with an immigration reform overhaul since the last Reagan-era immigration legislation. And if immigration reform would pass, there is a harsh fact that Republicans have known for decades and Democrats have been unable to overcome: without an obvious optic – hordes at the border – exactly what domestic policy would Republicans run against? Our economy is solid. Overall crime rates are down. And while foreign policy generally does not force voters to change their votes unless American forces are dying, the Hamas horror and the IDF Palestinian overkill will probably only move the needle so far… but not enough to change the election. Biden’s age vs Trump’s age and “me, me, me, the victim” probably cancel each other out. Simply put, satisfactory immigration reform takes away a key GOP issue.

First, our immigration obsession has wreaked havoc with US companies trying fill very sophisticated tech jobs for which there are insufficient qualified US residents. Hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs. We’ve made bringing these experts, foreign residents, into the US excessively difficult. Forms. Time. Not allowing their wives and children to join them. Other countries, particularly Canada and the UK, are welcoming the same experts we do not allow to enter the US. Major US tech companies have had to locate new research centers in those countries, knowing that the jobs they will create will not migrate into the US. The job creators, it seems, are not the billionaire enjoying their lower tax rates… it those tekkie immigrants we are keeping out. Take a good hard look at the immigrants behind Google and Tesla.

It is even worse than that. As people complain about the rising price of groceries, sky-high real estate (rental and owned), and restaurants are raising their rates, supported by state and local governments’ struggling with their tax base, few associate any of those variables with immigration. But reality is that Americans are now reproducing at a rate well below the 2.1 live births per couple replacement rate. Like many developed nations, our resident population is contracting. Add to that the fact that lower-level construction jobs can no longer be filled with low-wage workers. As office building values plunge and residential housing is not meeting demand, we are paying more to build what we need! The cost to harvest crops and maintain farms is also soaring as American are loath to engage in stoop labor and traditional seasonal farm workers are in desperately short supply. These demographic realities are discussed in greater detail in my January 3rd Immigrateful? blog.

Writing for the February 6th Los Angeles Times, author DW Gibson (currently working with Cornell Law School on immigration issues) suggests a path forward, one that actually allows states to participate in the solution: “It’s no secret that our country’s gobsmacking backlog of more than 2 million asylum cases is driven, in large part, by migrants fleeing poverty. Yes, some are fleeing poverty and violence, but many are directly fleeing poverty. Their asylum applications, by and large, will be denied because economic desperation, no matter how severe, is not one of the few legally recognized criteria for asylum. Still, these migrants enter the years-long adjudication process because there are no other options for them.

“Many Americans think ‘economic’ migrants should ‘get in line and wait their turn,’ but this admonition fails to recognize that, other than the asylum morass, there is generally no line for those fleeing poverty to wait in. The U.S. offers approximately 140,000 employment-based visas each year, in a labor market that is short somewhere around 3 million workers — and many of the workers are needed for types of labor that have few or no visas available. By creating more guest worker programs we would not only thin the crowds at the border, but also help the country meet some glaring economic needs.

“There are already bipartisan road maps for such programs… Take, for instance, the proposed Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013, which included the creation of a W visa to allow entry for low-skilled temporary workers seeking jobs that do not require a college degree. This would have met so many of our country’s needs when it comes to critical industries like construction, landscaping and food services — pieces of the economy for which we already rely so heavily on unauthorized workers, as much as we hate to admit it.

“The 2013 legislation did not become law — despite support from 68 senators — but there are similar bipartisan proposals on the table now, even in our explosive political environment. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) and Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) introduced a bill called the Essential Workers for Economic Advancement Act last spring, which would establish a new visa category, H-2V, for filling jobs that have remained open for a required amount of time and are located in regions where the unemployment rate is below 8%.

“The ‘essential worker’ approach would work to the benefit of migrants and a range of American industries, as laid out in ‘Immigration Reform: A Path Forward,’ a recent white paper from Cornell Law School’s Immigration Law and Policy Program . One of several suggestions made there is to start with healthcare.

“The government already allows some non-U.S. resident healthcare professionals who have been trained in the U.S. to stay in the country to work, if there is a facility seeking to hire them. The Conrad-30 Waiver Program — “30” refers to a cap for each state on how many individuals can receive the waiver each year — used to be called the Conrad-20 program, but demand required a jump to 30, and still it’s not providing enough healthcare workers in states such as South Dakota, the home of former Republican Sen. Kent Conrad, who originally proposed the program. Our need for more healthcare professionals — particularly in rural, Republican-leaning regions — is so vast that it becomes difficult to understand why we insist that foreign healthcare professionals who are trained in the U.S. leave the country after graduation.” Pragmatics and solution-driven efforts should govern. They do not!

I’m Peter Dekom, and when you have an entire political party dedicated to stopping immigration reform to preserve a horrible to campaign against, we all suffer.

Which Developing Country is Rising Next?

“Folks, where is it written that [we] can’t once again be the manufacturing capital of the world?” 

Joe Biden

I was intrigued at the variables in the developing world that either fostered or hindered economic growth. We are desperate for natural resources of every kind – from basics like bauxite and iron ore to rare earths for sophisticated electronics to vast tracts of land capable of growing essential crops. If the playing field can be leveled, maybe that rash of colonial exploitation (today often substituted with greedy local politicians, magnates and cartels) can begin to put more money into the world of subsistence labor. Some nations, with vast mineral and petroleum resources, have already cashed in… and have a litany of decisions to make about their wealth.

On February 3rd, writing for The Economist, International economics correspondent, Cerian Richmond Jones, posited: “On the one hand, developing countries’ metals are now a source of envy in the rich world. On the other, automation has knocked out much of the edge that poor countries once had in basic manufacturing. As the world changes, so do the ways countries can get rich. India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are each striking their own paths. The question is which will succeed in the decades to come.”

All of this is made increasingly complicated by climate change, local civil wars, the proxy wars reflecting hegemonic expansion/preservation by larger global and regional powers, BRICS, Belt and Road Initiatives, trade agreements, mutual protection alliances, foreign aid, multinational corporate power and market access domination… and simple but massive global graft and corruption, with instability even among what once were assumed to be rational and stable developed democracies (a polarized, gridlocked, legislatively dysfunctional United States is a prime example).

China, which was the global manufacturing behemoth for almost half a century, which began to rival the economic power of the United States and now fights for military parity and regional dominance, is facing unprecedented economic challenges. Much of this is explained in more detail in my January 10th "I’m Never Wrong Dictators" Can Really Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory blog. Soaring unemployment, banks nearing insolvency, mega-real estate projects and conglomerates collapsing and manufacturing costs, no longer a bargain by any measure, are as much hallmarks of modern China as massive military parades with state-of-the-art weapon systems flaunted in Beijing.

AI-driven automation is returning manufacturing to developed nations where expensive labor costs once pushed making stuff out to an outsourced world of vastly lower worker pay. Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico benefitted greatly, but even these nations are adopting automation to remain competitive. Yet despite riches in some of these nations, cultural and barbaric autocratic practices create pushback in importing nations where cultural tolerance and freedom are major values. Saudi efforts to greenwash golf, soccer and other sports, their allowing women the right to drive, investments in media production infrastructure and offers of subsides for foreign companies to open local manufacturing facilities have been only marginally successful. India’s PM Narendra Modi’s efforts to suppress Muslims and push his country to a clear priority given to the Hindu faith – most recently allowing the building of a massive Hindu Ram temple on the site of a destroyed mega-mosque – are making foreign companies wary of expanding operations into India.

There is also internal grassroots pressure in even the most developed nations to refocus on restoring local manufacturing. Tariffs try and level the playing field. Government investment, particularly in critically advanced technologies or bastions of massive employment, are now commonplace. The working class in super-modern nations is making their voices heard. French farmers mount protests in Paris to press their economic losses. The President of the United States joins Detroit picket lines outside auto plants. Biden has committed roughly $1 trillion to support US-based manufacturing. Politicians who ignore these vectors do so at their peril, but how much of this investment truly justified?

Back on June 13th, The Economist observed: “In the West the aim is to reverse industrial decline, which is keenly felt by voters. As a share of global economic output, manufacturing has dropped from 19% in 1997 to 16% today, with the fall steepest in rich countries. In China and India industry’s share of economic output appears to be roughly where it was three decades ago, but even in these countries it has slipped in recent years…

“Manufacturing boosters make four arguments in favour of attempting to reverse this trend. First, politicians in the West say that factories are a source of solid jobs that produce a bigger and more satisfied middle class. Second, boosters view manufacturing as a driver of innovation and growth. This is urgently needed to fuel the green transition—the third reason—which will be more palatable to electorates if it delivers local jobs. Finally, tensions between America and China have pushed world leaders to reconsider which goods are strategically important, and therefore should be produced closer to home.

“Start by considering the type of employment on offer. The notion of a ‘good manufacturing job’ is an old one. During the 20th century, those without a university education could find decent wages, job security, a bit of personal autonomy and career progression in factories. Indeed, just over a decade ago production jobs in America paid a premium of 5% compared with similar service-sector ones, and offered steady hours and generous benefits.

“More recently, though, the picture has changed: many good manufacturing jobs no longer exist. Across the rich world, employment that requires mid-level technical skills (think machine operators) has given way to a mix of high- and low-level jobs, mostly in service sectors (think coders and baristas). Wealthy populations spend more of their income on services; industrial demand is increasingly met by emerging markets. Whether in Detroit or Dortmund the consequences are obvious and, by now, familiar. At first glance, those who decry the loss of manufacturing jobs have a point. Surely it is worth paying to get them back?

“There is a snag. It is far from clear such jobs can be brought back—no matter how much governments spend. For a start, the manufacturing wage premium has fallen sharply. Production workers’ wages in America now lag behind those of similar service-sector workers by 5%. Moreover, the sort of high-tech factories that America and Europe are attempting to attract are highly automated, meaning they are no longer a significant source of employment for people with few qualifications.” The perks and vestiges of power are rapidly shifting. Undoubtedly, we are wasting trillions on efforts that face long odds in changing the earnings landscape for the better. But massive change is happening no matter what.

I’m Peter Dekom, and so much of what is being “invested” does not seem realistically to address the profound threats inherent in the rise of artificial intelligence, the disastrous impact of climate change, political instability and mankind’s inability to tame roiling armed conflicts.