Yes Men in Yemen

In the world of Middle Eastern governments, you have or control access to oil, have a big bad military or shiver in a corner, hoping no one will kill you. Yemen used to have oil, a lot of oil… but millennia of biodegraded fossil fuel being what it is when it is savagely removed by an oil-slorping humanity… is reaching its limit in this small, war-torn country on the edge of the Arabian Peninsula, strategically located at the gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. As oil revenues have plummeted, the sphere of influence and control exerted by its President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has contracted proportionately. For all practical purposes, the “legitimate” government of Yemen is pretty much relegated to controlling the capital city of Sanaa.

The extent of Yemen’s instability is staggering: “Much of Yemen is in turmoil. Government forces on Monday killed two militants suspected of being with Al Qaeda. There is another round of rebellion in the north and a growing secessionist movement in the south. In important provinces where key oil resources are and where Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is strong, government troops and the police largely remain in their barracks or in the central cities. Order outside the cities is kept by tribal chiefs, with their own complicated loyalties.” January 5^th New York Times. Bottom line, the government isn’t really in control, and 67-year-old Saleh doesn’t exactly have his eye on these particularly dire issues; he’s more concerned with consolidating his power and passing the baton to his son as his designated successor and in keeping his family on top of the most powerful government agencies.

Entire a Nigerian crotch bomber who, with Yemeni al Qaeda training, almost brought down an American passenger jet headed for Detroit on Christmas day. And enter both the U.S. and the U.K., fearing the growth of al Qaeda, and now wanting to create a “partnership” with the Yemini government to fight al Qaeda. They were notably absent in offering really significant aid until the recent incident. Ali Saleh wasn’t very interested in provoking a hornet’s nest of discontent, but when the U.S. supplied specific evidence that Ali Saleh and his family were being singled out as al Qaeda targets, the President showed serious interest.

Once again, the U.S. is seeking an alliance with a regionally corrupt, self-serving regime. Saleh’s relatives are everywhere. The Times: “Ahmed Saleh is head of the Yemen Republican Guard and the country’s special forces… The president’s nephews — sons of his late brother — include Amar, the deputy director for national security; Yahye, head of the central security forces and the counterterrorism unit; and Tarek, head of the Presidential Guard. The president’s half brother is head of the air force.” And millions of dollars flow at the direction of a President who could direct such resources towards his own people; he even spent $120 million to build a personal mosque – the al-Saleh Mosque.

There is opposition to the intended political succession, and Saleh is busy horse-trading to insure his goals are met. Without the necessary oil money, Saleh is using outside money, notably from neighboring Saudi Arabia, and now from the U.S. and the U.K. to stay in power and finance the cost of the war in the north. And since some powerful political interests, which Saleh needs to court in order to solidify his succession plans, have ties to some of these fundamentalist Islamist militants, including al Qaeda, Mr. Saleh has to rein in a wholesale foreign-supported military blast against these operatives. It’s a critical balancing act, but already, there are signs that Saleh is trying to minimalize the extent of the al Qaeda presence in his country.

The January 4^th Washington Post: “The head of Yemen's national security agency declared over the weekend that the threat posed by al-Qaeda had been exaggerated and that Yemen is not a haven for militants, the state news agency Saba reported. The comments by Ali Muhammad al-Anisi came a day after Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. Central Command, promised increased U.S. support for Yemen on a visit here. Since Anisi's statement, al-Qaeda threats have forced the U.S., British, German, French and Japanese embassies to close… While playing down the U.S. role seems designed to prevent a domestic backlash, it also raises questions about the government's long-term commitment and will to fight al-Qaeda in the wake of the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day, analysts say. Yemen's fragile government is in a delicate balancing act between its allegiance to the United States and tribal, political and religious forces that resent U.S. interference in Yemen and sympathize with al-Qaeda's ideology.”

Under the laws of unintended consequences, it will be most interesting to see how the U.S. and its allies deal in a world where Western interests are hardly what local leaders really want. It is relevant to ask exactly what we are getting ourselves into, just as we are beginning to seek extraction of U.S. forces from the region. Is there a better way to contain al Qaeda in Yemen and the region?

I’m Peter Dekom, and I like asking obvious questions.