Rising Power in Latin America

As Mexico shudders from declining oil reserves and a virtual civil war based on the drug lords perfecting their routes into gringo-land expands and as Venezuela enjoys the broken promises of President Hugo Rafael Chavez who has placed his repressive leadership ahead of his once reformist ways, there is a new power rising on this side of the Atlantic, and not a Spanish-speaking one at that. Portuguese is the national language of the world's fifth largest (land mass and population) country on earth, Brazil. With almost 200 million people, Brazil is only recently recovering from its image of one of those inflation-driven, Latin American failed economies. In 2002, it required a $30.4 billion rescue loan from the International Monetary Fund, promising to repay that debt by 2006. The fact that Brazil repaid that note a year early probably didn't show up on your radar.

You may have read about the country's massive use of ethanol in its automotive fuel fix, cheap sugarcane generated alcohol (almost 38% of the earth's production of ethanol); Brazil mandates that gasoline-powered cars use a mix of 25% of ethanol. The majority of Brazil's automobiles run on some form of flex-fuel. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has designated ethanol as an advanced biofuel because of its 61% reduction in the lifecycle of greenhouse emissions. But you may not be aware of the massive new discoveries of oil, much of it unfortunately off-shore, this South American country, is known more for its beaches, celebrations of Mardi Gras and its unique solution for racial harmony (the "coffee-colored compromise") than for its technological achievements and abundance of natural resources. But make no mistake; Brazil is rapidly taking its place as one of the most powerful and fastest-growing economies on earth, along with China, India and Russia.

We're not used to looking for such economic miracles in Latin America, and Brazil knows that. There is a simmering resentment among its citizens that the United States simply takes for granted that its global policies that, except for minor objections from Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela and their populist leaders, speak for the entire Western Hemisphere. Brazil is becoming a global political force by reason of its growing economy (even as much of the rest of the world continues to reel from the recession) and is trying to make it clear to the earth that it will set its own policies and expects to be taken very seriously as one of the greatest powers on the planet.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is fighting back, setting his country's new path and making it clear that it will be a course very independent from that big kid in North America. Why else would Brazil want to serve as a broker for a nuclear fuel deal that includes one of our sworn enemies? "Lula stepped front and center into one of the most sensitive of diplomatic debates, featuring the toxic relationship between Iran and the United States, in helping broker an agreement announced this week under which Iran will ship much of its nuclear fuel to Turkey in exchange for fuel rods. The announcement was accompanied by photographs of Lula with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan joining upraised hands. For some, the deal and the images represented refreshing diplomacy. Others, such as those who favor U.S.-led efforts to impose more economic sanctions against Iran, remained concerned about Iran's nuclear program." Los Angeles Times, May 22^nd.

Creating policy to make a point versus policies that actually have a local benefit has its obvious dangers, but it does seem as if we need to be aware that ignoring this giant to the south cannot be in America's best interests. "Brazil, with a large and stable economy and a host of vital commodities, has formed alliances with emerging powers such as South Africa and is a key member of the BRIC group of developing nations. It craves a permanent seat on the Security Council and wants a reform of the IMF and World Bank. Under Lula, Brazil has gradually abandoned its non-interventionist foreign policy and is taking a more hands-on role. For Lula, the Iran thing isn't important as such," said Oliver Stuenkel, a visiting professor of international affairs at the University of Sao Paulo. He's making a broader argument that current structures of global governance are unjust, and that emerging powers should have a greater say. "Critics counter that Lula has delusions of grandeur and say his successful presidency and high approval ratings have led to hubris." The Times. Whatever the analysis or the conclusion, it's time to pay some serious attention to this powerhouse in the south.

I'm Peter Dekom, and playing card games all over the earth is really complicated.