China passed the United States this year in the number of cars purchased; GM in China is rapidly outstripping its U.S. counterparts, perhaps part of the impetus for GM to go public again. But China’s entering the Twenty-First Century – with intent to lead it – also brings it into head-on collision with environmental concerns. Anyone who has visited the larger cities in summer has probably noted the appalling air quality, making Los Angeles on a smog-alert day seem like a breath of fresh air. Ground pollution and the explosive growth of more cars and coal-fired power plants have become life-threatening realities for ordinary Chinese, with equally bad global ramifications.
But part of the test of China’s leadership is how she responds to and deals with the deadly environmental mix of hyper-growth and profound impact of the materials of such growth on the earth itself. For those who think over-populated China is not concerned with keeping its people alive but will never sacrifice growth, the signs that the PRC is changing focus are everywhere, particularly in the automotive world. Don’t be surprised if, in a few years, you are driving a Chinese electric car.
On August 18th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Sasac) in Beijing announced a $15 billion investment plan to move China headfirst into the design and manufacture of electric and next-generation hybrid vehicles: “The government said a group of 16 big state-owned companies had already agreed to form an alliance to do research and development, and create standards for electric and hybrid vehicles… The plan aims to put more than a million electric and hybrid vehicles on the road over the next few years in what is already the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market…
“Few details of the plan were released. But Beijing said that over the next three years, 500,000 energy-efficient vehicles would reach the market each year and that more-efficient vehicles would soon account for 5 percent of passenger car sales in China. This year, analysts expect vehicle sales in China to reach about 17 million.” New York Times (August 19th). Sasac is a subcabinet-level governmental body that supervises approximately 125 of the nation’s largest state-owned companies.
Critics abound. Some wonder whether China is capable of developing a world-class automotive car, competitive with the finest Japanese, American and German engineered vehicles; to date, Chinese cars are definitely below-grade. Others believe China will favor cumbersome and politically-bound larger state industries over smaller, perhaps entrepreneurial smaller entities, while many ask who will own or have genuine access to the new engineering models and underlying patents. China has long been accused of co-opting (a polite word) patented technology developed elsewhere.
But no one will get rich underestimating the Chinese. Having watched her transition over the past three decades – from ancient to super-modern – I for one believe China will not only “get there,” but she will stun the world with her progress. “‘What you have here is the confluence of two important things,’ [Oded] Shenkar [professor of management at Ohio State University] said. ‘The car industry was long ago designated as a pillar industry for China. And the second thing is green technology or high tech; this is where the action is going to be, and China wants to be there.’” The Times. “It doesn't hurt that Asia has an ever-expanding middle class that is expected to spend $32 trillion by 2030. China has the perfect storm of cash, consumers, and a willful government. It's hard to compete with that--as the U.S. may be about to find out.” FastCompany.com (August 19th).
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment