Shaker Heights – California Style

The San Andreas Fault runs down the middle of California, exiting on the northern side at San Francisco. 810 miles of terror to those who live in the state, the fault is the literal the north-south tectonic plate boundary between the North American Plate (on the continental side) and the Pacific Plate (one the ocean side). These plates sit atop the molten oceans that lie deep within the earth's core, and drift against one another, usually slowly (1.3 to 1.5 inches a year), but occasionally a friction point shift and you get an earthquake. The "big one" generally refers to a quake of at least a 7.0 magnitude on the Richter scale, but others look to over 8 as the real massive devastation that everyone fears. 7 is enough to destroy, maim and kill; the impact of an 8 or great quake is the stuff of disaster movies. Example (Wikipedia): 1906 San Francisco earthquake: About 267 miles (430 km) were ruptured in Northern California. The epicenter was near San Francisco. About 3000 people died in the earthquake and subsequent fires. This time the magnitude was estimated to be 7.8.

So scientists are always looking at that "crack in California"… particularly obvious when you see the split of land from sea in Baja California, south of the border. That's clear visual evidence of these giant plates separating, literally moving in opposite directions. Well, it seems these scientists – perhaps demons focusing on making California living even more miserable than a bad economy can cause – have looked at the history of "big ones" along this fault… and guess what? They're telling us that the next "Big One" is overdue!

A joint university study was released on August 20^th based on new information gleaned in that part of the fault located in Southern California: "The long-awaited study came after scientists spent years studying the geology of the Carrizo Plain area of the San Andreas, which is about 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles. It found that earthquakes along the San Andreas fault have occurred far more often than previously believed…'What we know is for the last 700 years, earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault have been much more frequent than everyone thought,' said UC Irvine researcher Sinan Akciz said in a statement. 'Data presented here contradict previously published reports.'… The last massive earthquake on that part of the fault occurred in 1857 [the so-called Ft. Tejon earthquake, a 8.0 shaker that shook about 217 miles of southern and central California – only killed 2 in sparsely populated lands)]. But researchers from UC Irvine and Arizona State University found that earthquakes have occurred as often as every 45 to 144 years." Los Angeles Times (August 20^th).

Hmmm… let me add those numbers. 1857 + 144 = 2001. Oooops! All those other Southern California shakers that have made the news in 1971 (Sylmar, 6.6, the quake claimed 65 lives and caused more than half a billion dollars in damage, including the destruction of two hospitals, two freeway interchanges and the Lower Van Norman Dam) and 1994 (Northridge, 6.7, seventy-two deaths, with over 9,000 injured… Wikipedia) were big, but they were not the "Big One"… not even 7s… and they weren't even on the San Andreas Fault!

I'm Peter Dekom, and I'm shakin' over the thought that I may soon be shakin'!