Unlike hybrids, electric cars are completely dependent on the ability to recharge. They have limited range, and with the weight of the battery package, they often provide flimsy-to-sparse seating and on-board amenities to make up for the extra load. While they might not need the weight of a transmission – electric motors provide a strong and linear torque that does not require gears – they are not an appropriate vehicle for most drivers, especially those who like to take long road trips now and again. For those who actually purchase an electric car, it is almost always a second vehicle, suggesting that it is a government-subsidized toy for the environmentally-conscious rich. They also have less-than-spectacular sales figures, with the exception of the intentionally-low-volume Tesla. “The market for all-electric and plug-in electric cars in the United States is tiny, amounting to fewer than 20,000 sales last year out of total light-vehicle sales of 12.8 million. Even in optimistic forecasts, plug-in vehicles will account for less than 5 percent of the global market by 2025.
“Hybrids that do not require external charging, however, like today’s Toyota Prius and many others already in showrooms, are a growing segment. Forecasters say they could represent as much as 6 percent of the market by 2015 and 25 percent by 2025, in part because they are among the few vehicles currently on track to meet the government’s proposed new fuel economy standard of roughly 50 miles per gallon by 2025… Other propulsion technologies, like natural gas and fuel cells, are more likely to be seen first in heavy trucks and local delivery vans because of limited refueling options.” New York Times, March 24th.
Even with expensive gasoline, battery technology is far from satisfactory. Despite billions of federal loans and subsidies, lithium ion batteries remain relatively bulky (smaller than they once were, however), expensive, unable to hold enough electricity to power longer trips and rely heavily on rare earth metals, which are pretty much in the hands of foreign powers who really like to control and limit exports of these substances (particularly China, which wants the manufacturing to remain in the PRC). When Li batteries wear out (ten-year life expectancies these days), they are hideously expensive to replace, and disposing of the old batteries raises environmental concerns from their latent toxicity. Bottom line: the weak link in the value of an electric car is battery technology, which still is far from ideal for use in the automotive world.
“[T]he state of the electric car is dismal, the victim of hyped expectations, technological flops, high costs and a hostile political climate. General Motors has temporarily suspended production of the plug-in electric Chevy Volt because of low sales. Nissan’s all-electric Leaf is struggling in the market. A number of start-up electric vehicle and battery companies have folded. And the federal government has slowed its multibillion-dollar program of support for advanced technology vehicles in the face of market setbacks and heavy political criticism…
“Is this the beginning of the end of the latest experiment in the electric car, whose checkered history goes back to the dawn of the automobile age? Can the electric car survive only with heavy government subsidies and big consumer rebates? Are the Teslas and Fiskers and ActiveEs and Volts and Leafs destined to be the playthings of only rich technophiles with a couple of spare gas-powered cars at home?” New York Times. Indeed, until the battery issues are solved – an arena well-worthy of further government-supported research since the applications are not limited to cars – it does seem as if the electric car is simply not ready for prime time.
With a fairly easy and inexpensive ability to convert gasoline-burning vehicles into natural gas-powered cars, and given the abundance of natural gas in this country, we may need one more level of fossil-fuel-power until we can complete the transition to a fossil-fuel-free world. Preparing cars and filling stations for this transition would seem to be obvious, if we really want to control the price of powering our cars. We should be able to reduce emissions, but we really have to pay attention to letting the gas itself escape into the atmosphere (it is vastly more polluting that CO2 in its unburned state). If the government really wants to bring down the cost of driving in America, there is a clear level of government investment that can implement that goal in the not-too-distant future.
I’m Peter Dekom, and research and support for an interim and transitional solution to expensive and polluting gasoline are essential.
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2 comments:
Thanks Pete, for your thought-provoking article.
1) We are starting to see ranges in excess of 200miles per charge in some EVs. I anticipate that that will probably at least double by 2025. At that point, you can kiss range anxiety goodbye. But in the mean time 200 miles is not bad at all considering most people's daily commute is within 40miles RT.
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2) Most of the EVs in the US use Lithium Ion, which yes, as you said use Cobalt, which is a rare earth mineral. Nevertheless China has revolutionized the use of Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries, which do not contain cobalt. These are less expensive for them to make. We in the US are behind in this technology. Furthermore, lithium can be obtained through Chile. But cobalt seems to be a worry to get one's hands on. I would like to see an initiative promoting the US has to advance its technology to catch up with China in the making of the Iron Phosphate variety.
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3) When Li batteries "wear out" they can still be used as storage devices for solar in one's own home. And contrary to the belief that an entire battery pack would need to be replaced when one of the cells goes bad, simply replace the faulty cell. Industry would want people to believe that the entire $6K battery pack needs replacement, because it is more lucrative to capitalize that way, and much less so if they just have to replace a faulty $300 cell. But *shhh* they want to keep that a secret.
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4) Everybody talks about the Chevy Volt, and the Nissan Leaf, both of which are good cars and all, but, they are also too darned expensive! Why not talk about EVs such as the Mitsubishi iMiEV and the Chevy Spark and the Reva. Their prices hover much closer to $20K. Now we're talkin'! The recent introduction of these cars will also force cars such as the Volt and the Leaf to come down. That's where capitalism helps keep prices in check. ;-)
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5) What do you suppose will be the price of gas in 2025, even 2020, 2015?
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6) with so many folks showing up on YouTube demonstrating how one can DYI convert their existing cars into EVs or natural gas-burning cars for less than $2K, if we REALLY were concerned about energy independence and all, why isn't the government promoting THIS? It is absolutely more tangible than expecting regular folks to fork up the price of a Chevy Volt. Why aren't there tax-breaks for such conversions or initiatives to promote these options and make them more mainstream. Instead of just "cash for clunkers", how about an initiative to get your existing car converted?? I think I might know the reason why, it would not artificially promote the purchase of YET ANOTHER gas car which is what they want you to do because it would artificially produce more jobs.
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7) What about the jobs that could be produced by massive electro-or natural-gas-conversions of pre-existing vehicles? Oh, but that would take away the jobs of all those supporting every aspect of the Internal Combustion Engine as we know it including tune-ups, oil-changes, muffler repairs, fuel-pumps, radiators, oil-filters, bloated associated parts and service departments, distributor caps, spark plugs, air filters, carburetors, glow plugs, injectors, manifolds, you name it.... *Oops! That would also be associated to cars running on natural gas. Sorry. ;-)
Once the price of electric cars come down we'll see more buyers. I never knew there were EV's with 200 miles range; I thought the Leaf had around 100 or so?
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