Launch Anyone?

Every week, an armored car leaves a branch of the Woori Bank in Korea’s truck checkpoint in the middle of the Demilitarized Zone between the North and South, carrying millions of dollars of U.S. currency north. It represents the payroll for a facility – located about five miles north of the DMZ – that manufactures and assembles for companies like Samsung and LG with exceptionally cheap labor… without source labels (because the U.S. and others won’t import goods made in the North). The goods are trucked out unassembled, coming back a couple of days later in final or close to final form.

It’s cheap labor by any standard, but when you realize that the workers are actually getting paid one third of the labor cost being paid by the South Korean companies using the facility – a buck or two a day – you have to ask what’s happening to the rest of the cash. It goes to support the decadent Western products craved by the Kim Jong-un (just as his dad partook) and his cronies, to insulate the top leadership from the horrors of Western sanctions. Further, despite the massive food shortages, precious North Korean land is devoted to the cultivation of crops used to grow the basics for illegal narcotics that are slipped into the international market to generate revenues to support the North Korean military.

What this all means is that any sanctions against North Korea imposed by the West for any reason have little impact on their leadership or even the vast majority of military forces. The pain is borne by starving people struggling at the bottom of the global standard of living, the vast majority of North Koreans. And the leaders literally do not care what happens to them. It also tells you how hard it is to pressure the North Korean leadership to do anything that U.S. and Western policy-makers believe appropriate with the missile/rocket and nuclear programs that Kim Jong-un and his military wish to pursue… but it is also why Kim and friends are unlikely to invade the South or deploy their missiles and nukes in a real conflict… the tap on the luxury goods will be turned off.

Despite an apparent February 29^th agreement between the West and North Korea banning long-range missile/rocket tests, the North announced a weather satellite launch... using a rocket that can also be configured to carry nukes. Hey, said the north, this is not a weapon and this is not a test. The United States say this planned launch clearly would violate the test ban agreement; North Korea merrily proceeded toward that launch. The war of words escalated. Before the launch: “The White House is readying a blunt response to a launching by North Korea, which will include, as it has warned, the suspension of a food aid agreement announced just six weeks ago, a senior official said Wednesday. The United States also plans to rally worldwide condemnation of the launching, which Pyongyang insists is intended to put a satellite into orbit, but which Washington says would be a breach of North Korea’s international obligations.

“Beyond that, however, the administration’s options are limited. The United States will not seek further sanctions in the United Nations Security Council, this official said, because North Korea is already heavily sanctioned and Washington needs to preserve its political capital with China and Russia to win their backing for future measures against Syria and Iran. The more likely scenario at the United Nations is a weaker statement from the Council president.” New York Times, April 11^th. We’ve also embraced the Chinese to pressure the North, but our relations with the PRC are anything but warm and fuzzy these days. Pundits are even predicting a possible underground nuclear test in the near term, a further and clearer violation of the North’s agreement, and a continuation of that leadership’s ignoring of commitments to U.N.-backed agreements and resolutions.

The North used to have to attack the South to get this kind of attention, but these days, it can become the center of the diplomatic universe through its tests of its military technology. The choices for the West are difficult, because the sanctions hit the wrong people. N. Korea loves playing the back-and-forth card, positioning itself to receive benefits when it plays ball and to shake and rattle the world when it does not. It may be too early to tell if this is the military continuing the policies of papa Kim Jong-il without consulting Kim Jong-un (who has yet to consolidate his power despite the newfound titles) or if this is going to be the latter’s legacy with the rest of the world. It’s a nasty same-old, same-old.

Oh, and early in the morning on Friday the 13^th (for you friggatriskaidekaphobia fans). N. Korea time, they launched. Folks say it took off just fine… and flew for about a minute or more… and then… ooooops… it merged violently with the sea. Hey, didn’t they know not to launch on Friday the 13^th?! One note: it is the same long-range, three-stage rocket that can carry a nuclear payload, and so far… no worries, but they are working on it.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the world will be here… with or without human beings… even if we insist on playing with nuclear weapons…