Plan B

Pretty clear that Iran could not afford to build the technology the support a nuclear weapons program if it were not an oil-rich nation. Indeed, that loud holocaust-denying voice is all about oil and the power it brings with it, maybe even enough to get Sunnis who think your interpretation of the Qur’an is pure blasphemy to take your money and military support… but only a very few. Iran represents an unpopular 15% minority (of all Muslims) sect of Shiites but craves being the Middle Eastern spokes-country, the defier of the West (particularly the United States) and the ultimate threat to Israel.

Even as Iran’s economy is crumbling, her currency trading at almost half the value of a year ago, and internal dissention growing, she appears to be looking for new ways to defy the West. For her to shut down her nuclear enrichment program – which Iran has always claimed is solely for peaceful purposes (although this level of enrichment isn’t necessary for just peaceful purposes) – would be to give up that quest to lead the region. But the sanctions combined with naïve economic mismanagement have decimated the quality of life for most Iranians.

All the “attack Iran’s facilities” scenarios carry a significant component on the inevitable spike in oil prices and the impact on a sputtering global “recovery.” Visions of mined waterways and massive disruption in oil availability and pricing are probably the most serious consequence for global economics. What exactly would the world be like if Iranian oil just stopped? Well, if Tehran is to be believed, we may just have an opportunity to find out. “‘If sanctions intensify we will stop exporting oil,’ Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi told reporters in Dubai.

“Qasemi's statement is the latest in a series of threats of retaliation by Tehran in response to the sanctions, which have heightened political tensions across the Middle East and, analysts say, led to a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports… ‘We have prepared a plan to run the country without any oil revenues,’ Qasemi said, adding, ‘So far to date we haven't had any serious problems, but if the sanctions were to be renewed we would go for 'Plan B'.’” New York Times, October 22^nd.  Iran’s oil exports are currently less than half what they were a year ago; the sanctions are severe.

But tensions within Iran – basically a struggle between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the powerful clerics who really run the country – are exploding even as there may be a need to show a more united front to the rest of the world. “In a letter published by Iranian news sites, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the head of the powerful judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani [pictured above], of protecting ‘certain individuals’ from prosecution for economic corruption who are widely understood to be high officials, including Ayatollah Larijani’s oldest brother…  Mr. Ahmadinejad also demanded access to Tehran’s Evin prison, to visit one of his aides who has been held for nearly a month. In order to build his case, Mr. Ahmadinejad referred to a range of articles in the Iranian Constitution that explain the powers of the president.” NY Times.  Access denied, a humiliation for the termed-out President.

It’s reasonably clear that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be difficult, from getting the aircraft from Israel over hostile airspace and then confronting deep underground bunkers and widely separated facilities. But if Iran stops exporting oil, inflicting some of the damage the world already expects should an attack be mounted, does that make an attack more likely? And if there is an attack, and the program continues, when then? For those seeking easy and obvious solutions to a profoundly difficult problem, their search is likely to be in vain. We’ve drawn a line in the sand, telling the world that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon… period. Whoever is president when (if?) the moment arrives will have a very big choice: attack or support an attack and watch the economy fall back into a recession if not worse from the vastly higher gasoline prices that are inevitable… or lose global credibility. Will Tehran negotiate in good faith or not?

I’m Peter Dekom, and there are no simple choices.