Surrogates on Patrol

Surrogate biggies battling through secondary conflicts is nothing new. Such wars shelter the homeland from a direct strike but still allow the participants to strut their stuff and show their rippling muscles. In today’s world, these secondary conflicts define combat just as the great wars – World Wars I and II – defined the first half of the twentieth century. We got our butts kicked by the Soviets who backed Vietnam, and they got decimated in Afghanistan with CIA supplies to the Mujahedeen back in the latter half of that century. The Cuban missile crisis had little to do with Cuba and a whole lot more to do with the Soviet Union that was attempting to layer in its longer range missiles into this Caribbean nation.

But there are new military-power-wannabees in this modern era, and high on the list is the growing nemesis of Iran. And they are having the best time causing trouble. Yet Tehran also has to be noting that other regional powers are beginning to interfere with their plans. As Iran has embraced its near-Shiite (Alawite) regional affiliate, Syria, it has seen push-back from NATO Islamic power Turkey (mostly Sunni) and now the growing power of the Sunni resistance, now seemingly well-represented by Egypt’s President Mohammed Mursi – a member of the radical Muslim Brotherhood, who has himself moved to seized even more power in his tumultuous nation. Turkey has even requested NATO Patriot anti-missile missiles for its border region with Syria.

Remember, Sunnis (the 85% majority of Islam who believe in a literal reading of the Qur’an) generally despise and distrust Shiites (the 15% minority of Islam who believe that the Qur’an is a mystical book that only the most supreme religious leaders can interpret). Iran is 90% Shiite (Iraq about 60%, and Lebanon 40%). Syria is mostly Sunni, but the Assad regime is a part of a Shiite-affiliated sect. So Iran’s aspiration to be the dominant political force in the region is tempered by the fact that she is a Shiite power seeking recognition in a Sunni region. Tough goal, but Tehran seems to be willing to prove itself by taking on the most powerful regional military – Israel by far – and the most militarily-equipped superpower on earth – the United States – through surrogate wars.

Lebanon’s Shiite population has exploded as wealthier Christians and Sunnis emigrated because local conflicts decimated that country for decades. With close ties to Syria (but what happens when the Assad regime falls?) and even closer ties to Iran, the Lebanese Shiites now dominate the government; their Hezbollah Party seems to be effectively a well-funded branch of the Iranian government and viewed by the U.S. as a terrorist organization. But even here, the Iranian Shiites have flashed an olive branch to the local Sunnis by allowing party leadership to include Harvard-educated Sunni telecom billionaire, Prime Minister Najib Mikati.

Indeed, Iran’s powerful support of Sunni Hamas in Gaza, supplying cash and state-of-the-art missiles and rockets (including the Shahab-3 which someday could carry a nuclear payload) to wreak havoc against Israel, has become the cornerstone of their attempt to placate Sunnis, who have traditionally abhorred them. This in turn has provoked a complex balancing act among other regional powers, committed to Palestinian independence, which have effectively turned a blind eye to Iranian munitions being smuggled into Gaza over the last few years. Even among Sunnis in the region, anything that pushes against Israel and moves Palestine closer to being an autonomous state is considered a blessing… even if the support comes from a Shiite source. It seems that Iran’s strategy may be working.

For Egypt and Turkey, countries with substantial military forces, this rise of Iranian acceptance among Sunni nations is troubling. These Sunni powers, with backing from oil rich Saudi Arabia, cannot apply too much force to stop Hamas, even though the arms have come from Iran, for fear of alienating the huge support in the Islamic world for Palestine. But they also cannot allow Iran to continue growing in forceful regional recognition, and should Tehran go nuclear, the race for a Sunni bomb would accelerate to dangerous proportions.

Mursi’s work in effecting an Israeli-Gaza cease-fire with U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton may have in part motivated his timing in consolidating his power and clamping down on those who oppose him – stopping arms flowing from Egypt into Gaza as a part of the agreement was not particularly popular locally. But he sent a powerful message to Iran: you are messing in my yard! And he made his regional power absolutely clear in effecting the truce for however long it may hold.

For Hamas in Gaza, the cease-fire was a triumph in recognition, creating an unprecedented unity with the West Bank Fatah Party that represents the rest of Palestine. Israel (which would only deal with Fatah on Palestinian matters) had to recognize Hamas, however indirectly, to have a cease-fire with them. And Gaza “was awash in flags, not only the signature green of the ruling Hamas party but also the yellow, black and red of rivals Fatah, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a rainbow not visible here in years…  Despite the death and destruction, Hamas emerged emboldened, analysts said, not only because its rockets had landed near Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but also from the visits and support by Arab and Muslim leaders, potentially resetting the balance of power and tone in Palestinian politics, as leaders from various factions declared the peace process dead.” New York Times, November 22^nd.

No one expects the truce to linger permanently. What the future holds is anything but clear. Hamas may be more willing to confront Israel in the future and may even start playing Egypt against Iran to maximize its efforts. The seething hatred against Israel and the latter’s willingness to deploy its military strength to teach a lesson augur badly for regional peace. If time heals all wounds, then definitely, there hasn’t been enough time.

I’m Peter Dekom, and it seems that the one thing we can count on is that this powder keg will be ignited repeatedly in the coming years.