Protecting the Castle

China is a country marked by periods of massive transition, from the first consolidation of China (mostly the central area around Xi’an) under the Qin Dynasty in 221 BC, the millennia of dynastic rulers of the Middle Kingdom, the takeover of the mainland by Mao Zedong in 1949 to the slow and steady assumption of power by Deng Zhou Ping in the early 1980s to move China on to a track that made it into the economic powerhouse it is today.

When Deng took over his nation, it was still reeling from the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution and heavily divided into provincial fiefdoms that made running the country almost impossible. He had to back away from Mao’s policy failures. Trains were routinely halted for graft as they passed through one region or another. Deng had to make a point. His stated goal was to “make the trains run on time,” but he was sending a powerful message to those he would have to subdue to bring his country from festering feudalism into modernity. He informed the local cadres that interfering with train passages for any reason would no longer be tolerated. The next spate of trains carried sharpshooters with rather crude and direct orders. Those who attempted to stop, slow or interfere with any train were simply shot with no questions asked. Some died in the test of wills. The trains began to run on time, and Deng’s subsequent commercial reconfiguration of China accelerated. Harsh but China’s solutions have often been harsh.

There’s a new leader on the block, Xi Jinping, coming into the PRC in an orderly transition of power, but not one without its opponents and factions. He faces the Bo Xilai scandal marking widespread corruption and cronyism, the momentary stall of the manufacturing economy, untenable levels of pollution, a real estate bubble, an uneven distribution of the new wealth and an on-going battle between hard-line conservative traditionalist and those seeking a modern, freer society. Where does Mr. Xi stand on such issues, the world wanted to know. Well, for those believing that China is moving more to a freer Western model and away from a tightly-controlled centralized power base, prepare to be severely disappointed. Xi is a mainstream conservative.

“Despite decades of heady economic growth, Mr. Xi told party insiders during a visit to Guangdong Province in December, China must still heed the ‘deeply profound’ lessons of the former Soviet Union, where political rot, ideological heresy and military disloyalty brought down the governing party. In a province famed for its frenetic capitalism, he demanded a return to traditional Leninist discipline... ‘Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse? An important reason was that their ideals and convictions wavered,’ Mr. Xi said, according to a summary of his comments that has circulated among officials but has not been published by the state-run news media.

“‘Finally, all it took was one quiet word from Gorbachev to declare the dissolution of the Soviet Communist Party, and a great party was gone,’ the summary quoted Mr. Xi as saying. ‘In the end nobody was a real man, nobody came out to resist.’” New York Times, February 14^th. That this text was leaked slowly, in a local blog at first, is not an accomplishment of good, stealthy journalism. This was a clear and unsubtle message to the entire nation of what should be expected. Personal freedoms and liberties, under Xi’s philosophy, come at the expense of the state, impacting its very survival. Open dissent and individual agendas will not be tolerated. What remains to be seen is whether or not such proscriptions will in fact rein in the personal fiefdoms, that corruption and cronyism he has vowed to defeat, that have so blemished the rule of his predecessor, Hu Jintao.

Xi has about 18 months to consolidate his power, set his plan and prove that he can overpower those with much to lose if he indeed accomplishes his stated goals. Will he make his point with an iron fist? Is there is a less disruptive path that he might follow, and exactly what will those whose families have made fortunes because of the insider status be able to do to contain Xi’s goals? The “princelings” as they are known. Is he already pulling his punches? “... Mr. Xi has qualified his promises in ways that have already disappointed some proponents of faster market-driven change and political liberalization. In one speech, Mr. Xi said that change must be piecemeal, citing Deng’s dictum that progress is made ‘crossing the river by groping stones.’ In another, he said Mao Zedong’s era of revolutionary socialism should not be dismissed as a failure.

“He has also repeatedly demanded that the military show unflinching loyalty — a principle that, in his view, the Soviet Communist Party under Mikhail S. Gorbachev fatally failed to uphold.” NY Times. While the power elite has to inhale the same polluted air that the hoi polloi must breathe in Beijing, their homes and cars have heavy filtration systems, and life is good: “Membership in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party has always had a few undeniable advantages. There are the state-supplied luxury sedans, special schools for the young ones and even organic produce grown on well-guarded, government-run farms. When they fall ill, senior leaders can check into 301 Military Hospital, long considered the capital’s premier medical institution.” NY Times,  November 4, 2011. Xi’s fears tell us as much about him as do his stated goals. But one way or another, this is a critical, make-or-break time for this ascending political leader.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the struggles within China will impact Americans in their daily lives.