Cannon Fodder

Iran is a world power, her tentacles reaching all over the Middle East, directly through her military and indirectly through her well-armed regional political surrogate, Hezbollah. With more than a little help from Pakistan’s Dr. A.Q. Khan (nuclear physicist), Iran has built a nuclear program – enriching the quality of fissionable material essential for building nuclear weapons – that generated a successful United Nations-sponsored accord to stop that effort. While Donald Trump’s bluster threatens with derail this accord, that Iran has grown to such a level is nothing short of amazing. Iran has and continues to develop its non-nuclear weapon systems, including long-range missiles.

Iran is over 90% Shiite Muslim, a belief system where the Qur’an is viewed as a mystical revelation to be interpreted solely by the highest ranks of clergy (today, Ayatollahs). That mysticism is considered a horrible distortion of the Qur’an by the larger (almost 80%) Sunni faction of Islam. With the 10% Shiite minority Assad regime running Syria and the 60%-Shiite majority in Iraq, the regional Sunni powers (lead by Saudi Arabia and, other than isolated Qatar, the remaining major Gulf powers) are heavily aligned – oddly mirroring Israel’s stance and supported by the United States – against Iran and her surrogates. Russia has thrown her lot in with Syria and Iran, further destabilizing U.S. policies in the region. As ISIS is purged from holdings in Iran and Syria, the Assad regime is firmly in control of its territory, rebellion notwithstanding. The desperate conflict in Yemen, pitting Saudi-supported Sunni incumbents against Iranian-supported Houthis rebels, is a surrogate war. The Saudi faction is not doing so well.

A nation of more than 80 million people, Iran is a theocracy – where religious leaders control and can overrule the “democratically-elected” government – that overthrew the prior Pahlavi monarchy in 1979, immediately fracturing relations with the United States. In the 1980s, Iran waged a decade-long war with its then-Sunni-controlled (Saddam Hussein) neighbor, Iraq (even though Iraq was 60% Shiite) with massive and seemingly never-ending casualties on both sides. Its draftees were notoriously launched against better-trained and armed Iraqi forces… considered “cannon fodder,” hoping to overwhelm the opposing superior forces with “bodies.” Today, Iran’s professional and powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guards – 125 thousand elite forces out a total military of almost one million sailors, soldiers and airmen (540 thousand active duty and the balance reserves) – run roughshod over the country, under the umbrella of the religious leadership.

Iran’s enforces compulsory military service for young men 18 and older as part of that military effort. So you’d think that with this much power, engineering and scientific expertise at close to full-Western levels, Iran is a solid and menacing force that is only growing stronger and more powerful. Perhaps, to the extent that Iran is willing to sacrifice its young men and suffer through a horrible economy exacerbated by sanctions imposed by Western powers (especially the United States) that have been only partially-eased by reason of the above-noted nuclear accord. Iran pretty tightly controls internal and external communications. It heavily censors negative information and only allows foreign journalists limited and controlled access to sensitive areas and personnel. But trickles of information that filter though this journalistic barrier suggest that Iran has become a nation of rich, powerful and connected insiders – with special privileges that are accelerating the massive corruption that defines modern Iran – to the exclusion (and suffering of) most everybody else.

Nothing brings this home like what happens to young men, from different socio-economic classes, facing the Iranian military draft. Two months of basic training and up to 19 months of deployment.  The September 28^th Los Angeles Times pried open the lid on this aspect of military service, and what they found reflects the overall restructuring of Iranian society into a world of connected “haves” and those who clear are “have nots.” Some of the richest potential draftees are able to bribe (or pay “fines”) to avoid military service altogether.

Lower-socio-economic recruits have increasingly “broken” – resulting in these draftees shooting superior NCOs and officers, holding some at gunpoint and forcing them to engage in the vile and abusive “training exercises” imposed on hapless trainees. There been enough of this information leaking out to suggest that Iran has a growing problem with social inequality. “Reports of trouble inside Iran’s secretive security forces are rare. Although scant details have emerged from officials or state media, many young draftees said the [above-noted] violence was not surprising.

“They described Iran’s military training as a 21-month ordeal of physical humiliation, psychological stress and petty corruption, where mental health problems fester and socioeconomic grievances are magnified. Many said superiors often trample on poor and disadvantaged recruits while the wealthy and well-connected avoid the toughest tasks — or dodge the draft altogether.

“‘Almost everyone is a victim of hazing and mistreatment,’ [an otherwise anonymous] Ahmad said. ‘I am educated, so I don’t have it as bad. But I hate the service and I hate my surroundings. I don’t feel any patriotism in my heart.’… The shootings have raised uncomfortable questions for Iran’s army, one of the largest in the Middle East with an estimated 350,000 active-duty troops, nearly two-thirds of whom are conscripts.

“Although far less powerful or well financed than the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — whose commanders hold stakes in key industries and lead Iran’s military adventures in foreign lands — the nation’s conventional army, or artesh, a mainly defensive force, has long been seen as a pillar of the Islamic Revolution at home and loyal servants of the theocracy… But a prolonged economic crisis and growing resentment of clerics’ sweeping powers have damped Iranians’ revolutionary zeal.

“The recruits entering the army now were all born after the 1979 revolution. Experts say the shootings signal a young generation’s increasing hostility to a ruling class that controls what they watch, wear, read and eat, and its worries about an economy that has failed to rebound despite the promises of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which relaxed international sanctions on Iran…

“Uneducated soldiers are often sent to guard remote outposts, and those with connections can often negotiate undemanding desk jobs. Those disparities are in the spotlight now because they appeared to have been a factor in [recent reports of fragging of superiors by draftees].

“Ahmad, the draftee from Tehran, sorts and distributes mail for a senior commander, a job he got because his brother-in-law is a staff officer at the same base. Reza Agarahimi, a 30-year-old who recently completed his service and whose father is a politician, was assigned to Defense Ministry headquarters while others were told during physical training that they could be sent to far-flung cities where they would not see their families.

“‘Picture it: You’re a young private stationed in a remote area, you are humiliated by the officers, you miss your family, you are alone in a tower standing guard in the middle of the night and you’re thinking about your future, which is unpredictable in Iran these days,’ he said. ‘Then someone comes and abuses you, makes you angry. It can make you explode.’” LA Times. Will Iran implode? Someday, but the repression is strong enough to keep this brutal regime in power for the foreseeable future.

I’m Peter Dekom, it really helps to understand how difficult Middle Eastern politics can be by looking at the components that are mucking it all up.