Be Careful What You Wish For

As much as Trump’s base is about to get slammed in the teeth from “tax reform,” so will Israel – again with Trump’s backing – moves away from internationally-favored move towards a two-state Palestine/Israel solution towards what is obviously a one-state-ruled-by-Israel alternative. That is precisely what the weak, right-wing ruling coalition is doing under the leadership of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. His government’s unwillingness a. to budge on the constant expansion of Jewish settlements into West Bank Palestinian territory and b. the retreat from a willingness to negotiate without a litany of unrealistic preconditions are leading Israel into a quagmire of violence and increasing isolation.

If there is going to be a single nation, mixed with Arabs and Jews, there are some inevitable consequences. First, as the Arab population continues to grow with much higher birth rates, the Jewish state will no longer be a primarily Jewish state. That essence of Israel will dissipate. Arabs will outnumber Jews. Israel can deny voting rights to Arabs, but that flies in the face of an overall Israeli commitment to democracy. But if the votes are equal, then Arabs can outvote the Jewish population. Huh?

Further, if Israel continues to treat its conquered Arab holdings as second class citizens – continuing to restrict travel and opportunities, bulldozing the homes of relatives to those engaged in terrorism, letting soldiers play roughshod over Arabs anywhere, we can most certainly expect an escalation in violence against ordinary Israeli citizens. The Palestinian factions would have very little to lose if they are denied that once-promised hope of their own state. Hardliners often sound great to their constituents, but such efforts almost never achieve what they believe is possible. Internal security for Israel will be almost impossible to sustain.

This isn’t just my personal voice. I was moved to write this based on a New York Times Op-Ed (December 1^st) from Ehud Barak, Israel’s former prime minister and defense minister who also served as the Israel Defense Forces chief of general staff. Here are some of his words that motivated today’s blog: “For anyone who cares about Israel, this is no time for niceties. What we need now is plain speaking, even pained speaking — and action. For all of Israel’s great achievements in its seven decades of statehood, our country now finds its very future, identity and security severely threatened by the whims and illusions of the ultranationalist government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“In its more than three years in power, this government has been irrational, bordering on messianic. It is now increasingly clear where it is headed: creeping annexation of the West Bank aimed at precluding any permanent separation from the Palestinians.

“This ‘one-state solution’ that the government is leading Israel toward is no solution at all. It will inevitably turn Israel into a state that is either not Jewish or not democratic (and possibly not either one), mired in permanent violence. This prospect is an existential danger for the entire Zionist project.

“The government realizes that carrying out its one-state plan must entail steps and practices that necessarily clash with Israeli and international law — which is why it has effectively declared war on the Supreme Court of Israel, the free press and civil society, as well as the Israel Defense Forces’ ethical code.

“This disrespect for the rule of law permeates other aspects of the government, too. It helps to shield the prime minister, his family and his aides from corruption investigations. Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud Party recently introduced legislation that would explicitly forbid the police from recommending indictments at the end of high-profile investigations. To clear up any question about its intentions, the law would apply even to inquiries that are already open — like the one into the prime minister’s dealings.

“The same inclination toward self-preservation is evident in Mr. Netanyahu’s capitulation to ultra-Orthodox parties on religious issues, damaging Israel’s crucial relationship with American Jews. That relationship has grown even more strained since Mr. Netanyahu reneged on a deal that would have expanded egalitarian prayer space at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest site. This is a longstanding demand for recognition from Reform and Conservative Jews, who together make up about half of the Jewish-American community.”

Why should we care? Because the level of destabilization in the Middle East raises the regional threat level so high as to threaten both world peace and the global economy. As Saudi Arabia and Iran square off (e.g., Yemen and Lebanon), as Egypt is unable to deal with local terrorists, as Syria’s Assad continues to decimate his own people, as Qatar finds itself at odds with its immediate Arab neighbors, the tinderbox we call Israel is on the verge of igniting the whole mess. Nothing good or positive is happening here.

What is most troubling is that pushing that tinderbox to explode is at the core of Trump’s American policy, one that supports Israel’s hardline policy. Relying on a false reading of Biblical prophecy, a substantial portion of America’s evangelical community – particularly that segment associated with Trump’s base – believes that the rapture (where the faithful will be lifted from earth to Heaven at the Second Coming of Christ) can only happen when Israel explodes an end-of-world war (Armageddon) in the Middle East. Oh, that all those Jews would die in such a war is the price of the Second Coming. A strong and defiant Israel maximizes that prophecy; such evangelicals believe that somehow they can manipulate God to accelerate that glorious event. Don’t believe me? Do your own research. Google Armageddon + Evangelical and see what pops up. Bill Salus (see his image above) is one of those who writes in support of this view: The NOW Prophecies 2017, for example.

But former Israeli P.M. Barak continues: “Despite the right-wing government’s actions, there is a broad consensus among Israelis that rests on three pillars. First and foremost, security comes before everything; every Israeli understands this. Second, the unity, solidarity and integrity of the people take priority over the unity of the land — namely, the wish to possess the entirety of our historic homeland. Third, the principles of the 1948 Declaration of Independence, which lay out a vision for a democratic Israel based on freedom, justice and peace, are the foundation of our country’s de facto constitution.

“These pillars should indicate how to proceed toward peace. Accordingly, the Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem and the ‘settlement blocs’ — suburban communities built just across the Green Line, which include some 80 percent of the total settler population — will remain in Israel no matter what. In any future peace agreement, these areas can be offset by land swaps with the Palestinians. Similarly, overall security responsibility in the West Bank will remain in the hands of the Israel Defense Forces as long as necessary.

“The entire debate, then, is actually only over the fate of the isolated settlements, fewer than 100 small communities deep in the West Bank, containing around 100,000 settlers. Even if it is not possible to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at this stage — and it probably is not — it is obvious that continued construction in those isolated settlements directly damages Israel’s vital interests. The settlements are a security liability, not an asset. They aim to block the option of a ‘divorce’ from the Palestinians, which the overwhelming majority of Israelis support

“Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition claims to support the three pillars of Israeli consensus but the truth is it is determinedly undermining all three. The prime minister degrades our security rather than enhancing it. He prefers a Greater Israel with an Arab majority, violence and division over a united, self-confident Israel with a solid Jewish majority, together facing whatever challenges may arise. He sanctifies the Land of Israel before the People of Israel. And he systematically erodes Israel’s democracy and liberal norms of governance.

“In the service of this agenda, Mr. Netanyahu elevated fake news, alternative facts and whataboutism into art forms in Hebrew, long before those terms gained any traction in English. His government jeopardizes Israel’s very future, while dividing and inciting us against each other and maligning those abroad who genuinely care about Israel. This must be stopped.”

Trump and his exceptionally pro-Netanyahu administration have made clear that they are catering to this particular Netanyahu/evangelical perspective. The United States will officially defy the Palestinians, who claim Jerusalem to be their holy city as well, and will probably accept Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (vs Tel Aviv which has been the US-recognized capital of Israel to date and where the US embassy will remain)s.  Trump’s approach is both not-reflective of what’s best for most Americans, including so many Jews who are shocked at Netanyahu’s actions, and an exceptional threat to world peace. We certainly have no further credibility in mediating a regional peace. Let’s not escalate that into an invitation for increasing violence.

I’m Peter Dekom, and at what point do facts, an understanding of history and common sense return as the underlying backbone to American foreign policy?