Funny how every assessment of North Korea’s capacity to launch a devastating nuclear strike against the United States comes with some sort of palliative that is supposed to give us comfort. This time, our experts tell us that the missiles developed by the North have yet to show that they can carry anything more than the lightest, token payload to their ultimate destination. But as tests continue, there are fewer and fewer capacity-limitations with every launch. Fewer failed tests. There are outside “contributors” (e.g., the alleged involvement of Russian-supported Ukrainian engineers) and stark examples of increasingly repeated success, launch after launch. It’s only a matter of time. And not much more time.
Here is an excerpt from the official North Korean description of their November 29th launch, vetted by U.S. military analysts: The test-fire of intercontinental ballistic rocket Hwasong-15, newly developed under the political resolution and strategic decision of the Workers' Party of Korea, was successfully carried out.
The ICBM Hwasong-15 type weaponry system is an intercontinental ballistic rocket tipped with super-large heavy warhead which is capable of striking the whole mainland of the U.S. This system has much greater advantages in its tactical and technological specifications and technical characteristics than Hwasong-14 whose test-fire was conducted in July last, and it is the most powerful ICBM which meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development set by the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, aka North Korea].
Upon authorization of the WPK and the government of the DPRK, ICBM Hwasong-15 was launched at 02:48 on Nov. 29, Juche 106 (2017) in the suburbs of Pyongyang under the guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Un.
After making a 53-minute flight along its preset orbit, the rocket accurately landed in the target waters set in the open sea in the East Sea of Korea [near Japan].
The test-fire was conducted in the highest angle launch system and it had no adverse effect on the security of neighboring countries.
American military experts confirm that the Hwasong-15 is pretty much capable of reaching anywhere in the United States. Other than a few, now long past minor successes, the United States has so far been unable substantially to infect the North’s missile facilities with a parallel to the US/Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear centrifuge system. The U.S. “Star Wars” laser strike capacity has stalled, most by reason of treaty restrictions. Instead, until we are able to mount a much more credible targeting laser beam system, we are stuck with what some refer to as “hitting a bullet with bullet” anti-missile defense system. Even when tests conducted in “controlled” situations, our results have produced an under 60% success rate. The above photo shows one of those test failures.
Should the North decide to attack with waves of nuclear-tipped missiles, military experts have concluded that some would get through. And yes, in 2014, the U.S. elected to refocus its efforts toward that laser system, but we are years from being able to deploy a comprehensive system.
So where are we today? With every Kim-insulting Trump tweet, North Korea seems to put more store in accelerating their nuclear program and underlying missile delivery system, refusing to discuss anything with their now most-hated American enemy. From independent sources able to measure the mood of the North Korean people themselves, these underfed and impoverished people not only blame the United States for all of their ills but are girding for an expected nuclear war with Trump’s America. They seem to believe that although many will die, such a conflict is survivable. Really?
While China can put the screws to the North a bit more, Kim Jong-un has equated stopping his advanced military missile/nuclear development program to surrendering to the United States and accepting his own demise. Make no mistake, China’s President Xi Jinping has nothing but disdain for Kim Jong-un, but the last thing China wants is for the South to take over the North, placing a US ally directly on their border. Kim really understands that dynamic.
We seem to forget the decades of the Cold War, where our most determined foes – Communist diehards in the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China – maintained nuclear-tipped missiles (some deliverable by submarines operating close to American shores) and continuously threatened to destroy us in a nuclear holocaust. A whole lot worse than the threat the North mounts today. The notion of Mutually Assured Destruction led to containment treaties, and the world breathed a big sigh of relief when the ravages of nuclear confrontation seemed relegated to the pages of post-apocalyptic science fiction novels. Modern China and Russia, both very sophisticated nuclear powers, were unlikely to mount a strike against the US.
And then came Mr. Kim, flaunting every challenge to his nuclear program, reveling in the global notoriety he was gaining. He was gifted with an American leader that seemed to justify every admonition he has given to his own people. Kim’s acceleration of this advanced military program became a cause célèbre among his people. The only thing that we can be sure of is that there is no way for Kim to agree to relinquish his nuclear capability. And the United States, so far, seems to be unwilling to settle for anything else. Is there a path short of a very risky military solution?
It would seem that doing nothing more than zipping up Trump-tweets would be a reasonable place to start, but the President doesn’t seem to have the necessary self-control to abstain from such behavior and has an unusual predilection to undercut his own Secretary of State’s effort to mount a serious program of direct negotiation with the North. Writing for the November 28th The Cipher Brief, Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, who served over two decades with the Central Intelligence Agency and was the former Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea, believes that talks can be productive, especially if they are based on multinational efforts:
“North Korea now refuses to engage with the new administrations in the U.S. and South Korea – administrations that appear willing to enter into unconditional talks with North Korea. This is in sharp contrast to former U.S. and South Korean administrations that insisted that North Korea agree to and start implementing comprehensive denuclearization before official talks could be initiated.
“The 12th East Asia Summit in Manila in November brought together the leaders of the 18 member states to affirm their resolve to address those economic and political issues requiring greater regional attention. The Korean Peninsula was a topic of immediate concern, with all states committed to working for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
“This wasn’t any normal summit – it was attended by Presidents Donald Trump, Xi Jinping of China, Moon Jae-in of South Korea, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Shinzo Abe of Japan and other world leaders. The consensus at the meeting was that more must be done to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue with North Korea – though China and the U.S. each pointed to the other as holding the key to initiating those talks.
“The media in China recently stated that the U.S. has the ultimate leverage with North Korea: security assurances. Indeed, if that is the case, then China should encourage North Korea to enter into official exploratory talks with the U.S. These talks would permit North Korea to discuss their security concerns and related demands. U.S. concerns and demands could also be brought up. If the talks are productive, then official negotiations including South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and possibly others could commence.
“I’m confident that China eventually would support this approach. From 2003 to 2009, China had invested considerable time and resources in hosting the Six Party Talks (6PT). Their efforts were rewarded with the Sept. 19, 2005 Joint Statement, signed by the six countries in Beijing, committing North Korea to comprehensive denuclearization in return for security assurances, a peace treaty, economic development assistance and a discussion dealing with the provision of two Light Water reactors when North Korea returned to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapons state.
“Unfortunately, the Joint Statement ended in 2009 when North Korea refused to sign an agreement to permit verification monitors to inspect sites outside of Yongbyon, their plutonium facility. Since 2009, the situation with North Korea has changed profoundly. North Korea is now assessed to have a number of nuclear weapons that they claim can be miniaturized. They also have the ballistic missiles that can deliver these weapons.
“Although Kim Jung-un has made it clear that North Korea will never denuclearize, providing security assurances, a peace treaty and a more normal relationship with the U.S. may convince Kim Jung-un that denuclearization is better than an isolated and heavily sanctioned North Korea.
“Getting North Korea to halt its missile launches and nuclear tests and entering into negotiations should be our immediate goal. Indeed, the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization should be our inalterable goal with North Korea, knowing that it may take years and require security assurances and other confidence building measures to convince Kim Jung-un that regime change is not our goal.
“Convincing North Korea to halt its missile launches and nuclear tests and entering into official talks with the U.S., and possibly others, should be the responsibility of not just the U.S., but also China and Russia and all those countries that attended the 12th East Asia Summit.” That Kim Jong-un seems to have outsmarted Donald Trump at every turn, even in the eyes of the global community, hasn’t helped any more than Donald Trump’s anti-Kim grandstanding for his base has. Is there hope? Depends on whether that notion of Mutually Assured Destruction remains believable by all concerned. Really?
I’m Peter Dekom, and the roiling inconsistency and endless grandstanding over North Korea continues to terrify me… and most of the rest of the planet.
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