Farmers represent truly a philosophy of life that resonates heavily with traditional GOP values. Dependent on nature – God if you will – for the bounty of sun and rain (but punished by the vagaries when such resources are denied), enjoying the wide open spaces far from neighbors (think gun ownership: suggesting a need to provide self-security and access to habitat for fish and game) and likely to seethe when some government official tells them what they can and cannot do. Independent. Responsible for their own welfare. Resenting others who want to take chunks and pieces of their hard-fought revenues without working for it.
So the slogans of tax cuts, eliminating hordes of government bureaucrats that they see as barriers to their prosperity and drains on their income (drain that swamp)… pushing out foreigners with different priorities and values, including immigrants that they believe are sucking the lifeblood out of their nation and standing firm against our enemies… are very sticky in rural venues. The role of religion extends far beyond the predominantly Protestant values, the definition of God to which they send their prayers and thanks. Church also represents one of the few regular places where the community routinely gathers, where social contacts are maintained and where political consensus is set.
But slowly, reality is going to set in. Tariffs on imports almost always invite foreign retaliation… with American agricultural goods – one of our largest export sector – at or near the top of the list for reciprocal tariffs. And that’s not all that slams our farming community. For example, undocumented farmworkers in California, who harvest food crops that require hand harvesting (verses vast fields of Midwest grain that are less reliant on such labor; see image above right), are watching Trump’s ICE mandates target California labor just to send a message. That California is the nation’s number one provider of such crops suggests that any cost anomalies will be passed on to the entire United States.
“‘The [Trump trade and immigration] rhetoric makes people nervous,’ [says Economics professor Daniel Sumner, who heads the UC Davis Agriculture Issues Center]. ‘Workers may leave California for places they feel are safer, like in the Midwest.’… The 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% on aluminum not only may spur foreign retaliation against California’s $25 billion worth of annual agriculture exports, but will probably [also] raise prices on farm machinery, Sumner adds.
“‘A tomato harvester is made of steel,’ the agriculture economist says. ‘You may have an old one wrapped in bailing wire and are planning to buy a new one that costs $300,000. Then you find out it’s going to be $320,000. That means one piece of expensive equipment doesn’t get sold. And the whole economy operates less efficiently.’ [See the image, above left]…
“[But it’s the labor shortage that hits such farmers the hardest.] ‘I’ve seen in the Salinas Valley lots of lettuce left in the field because of a lack of workforce,’ says Jamie Johansson, president of the California Farm Bureau Federation… ‘There’s definitely a worker shortage,’ adds Johansson, who farms olives and citrus in Butte County. ‘It’s become more difficult over the last 10 years.’… That’s true for several reasons, not just Trump’s raids.
“Illegal immigration has slowed, not only during the Trump presidency but also under Barack Obama’s. There’s an attrition of the labor pool, says Tom Nassif, president and chief executive of the Western Growers Assn… The Mexican economy has been improving and ‘Mexico itself is importing farmworkers from Central America,’ Nassif says. Plus, farmworker parents hold higher ambitions for their children and increasing numbers are going to college — many of them the so-called Dreamers.
“Moreover, the California economy has greatly improved and there are jobs in construction and restaurants that beat farm work… ‘It’s getting worse every day,’ Nassif says. ‘We’re seeing shortages of 25% to 40%, depending on the crops and times of year.’ Fruit trees and row crops that rely heavily on hand labor are particularly vulnerable, he says… Farmers should pay more, critics charge. But they’re paying $15 to $18 an hour, Johansson says. And citizens can’t be lured at any wage.” Los Angeles Times, March 15th. But it’s not only the immediate results of Trump’s trade and immigration policy that hits farmers hard.
While massive corporate agribusiness conglomerates benefit from those new tax cuts, very little of that largesse has trickled down to ordinary farmers trying to make a living. The number one use of that newfound corporate tax windfall to date has been stock buybacks, which only benefit senior executives and big shareholders. The real wages that would generate more demand for domestic products are flat in real buying power. Instead, ordinary farmers see their lot in life remaining the same while the billionaires in Trump-world have never made so much money. No growth of new high-paying jobs. The gig economy may fill labor statistics and seem good, but it only squeezes those workers in it harder. Even restaurant workers are watching as their tips slide over to the owners to keep or disburse.
Donald “Stormy Daniels loving” Trump’s “colorful” public language offends the most religious in his constituency, many of them farmers and their wives. Trump still has his hold on this constituency, but you can feel his grip loosening. They are beginning to watch as dreaded Democrats are beginning to make headway in previously red districts and looking more objectively at their own best interests.
In the end, the Trump path is not what’s really best for farmers and their wallets. It’s not what most of the rest of the nation needs to achieve prosperity, and so that sky-high stock market is going to reflect that obvious economic-reality wall… the only wall Trump really seems to be building. Now if only the Democrats paid a little more attention to those independent voters in the middle…
I’m Peter Dekom, and we seem to be living in an era where Americans are constantly pitted against other Americans… to our communal detriment and to the enrichment of our competitors and enemies.
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