A Wall at Our Southern Border – Do People Really Care?

I occasionally hear Democratic members of Congress suggest that in exchange for DACA relief (letting the “Dreamers” stay here with a path to citizenship), they are willing to vote for a slow-build of Trump’s white elephant, the Great Mexican Wall. They openly state that when Democrats eventually retake the White House, they will halt that construction and may even tear down some or all of what has been built. Waste.

On the other side of the aisle, at least among those Republicans who now identify themselves as Trumpists, I hear about all those criminals and drugs crossing north and all those jobs that the undocumented travelers take away from Americans. I wonder why Mexico doesn’t want a wall to stop all those American weapons – especially the assault variety favored by their cartels – from illegally being smuggled southward.

But the reality is simple. There is accelerated movement of undocumented workers traveling back to Mexico, a trend that began with the great recession during the George W Bush years and continued during both the Obama and Trump administrations. There is hardly a net increase in such travel into the U.S. We also not losing jobs that American citizens are willing to take.

For example, too many American farmers, unable to get enough undocumented workers or any American-born workers to harvest their crops, are facing untenable financial burdens as their crops rot in their orchards and fields. In short, there really isn’t much of an illegal immigration problem as those claiming “national security is at risk,” and the extension of additional immigration restrictions on lawful and highly skilled/educated workers is hurting our high tech sector big time.

So the question has to be how the American body politic feels about immigration – how much of a voter priority that issue really is? To Donald Trump, it is a quintessential campaign pledge, his defining platform. Equally interesting is the differential between states that have been highly targeted by the Trump administration, particularly California whose economy is heavily dependent on that undocumented workforce, and the rest of “average” America.

The May 20^th Los Angeles Times looks at California’s history over immigration issue for the last 25 years: “Few topics have been as incendiary in California as illegal immigration, with intense arguments about whether those who cross borders are a reminder of the American dream or a sign of its demise… Those past debates — most visible during elections in 1994 and 2010 — may offer some insight into the issue’s political rewards and risks.

“For starters, neither effort sprang from measurable public anger. In 1993, a Los Angeles Times poll found that only 2% of voters surveyed cited immigration as the state’s top problem. Jobs and the economy were more pressing, they said… Nor were things boiling over in late 2009, when 3% of respondents picked illegal immigration as the biggest problem in a Public Policy Institute of California poll. And yet Republican leaders of the time insisted otherwise.

“In late 1993, then-Gov. Pete Wilson said that ‘our state is facing a crisis in illegal immigration.’ In the spring of 2010, GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner warned of ‘the strain’ the issue was causing. Both men ultimately built campaigns around an effort to deny government services based on citizenship.

“Fast-forward to May 2016, just before the state’s current debate, and a remarkably similar snapshot: Only 6% of likely voters in a PPIC poll saw illegal immigration as the biggest issue. Five times as many said it was jobs and the economy.

“More than a dozen California Republicans suggested otherwise when they sounded the alarm on illegal immigration last week with President Trump. ‘It is a crisis — that’s the point we’re at in California,’ Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore) said at a White House meeting, with Trump nodding in agreement.

“Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection suggest otherwise. When comparing the past seven months to the same time period in 2017, there’s been no growth in the total number of adults and families detained along California’s portion of the border. The only growth — and it’s been sizable — is in the number of unaccompanied children crossing.

“Unlike today, the 1994 and 2010 clashes took place in the midst of California recessions — hardly the case now, with the state’s jobless rate at its lowest recorded point since 1976.” For the rest of the country, building a wall doesn’t seem to be much of a priority either. Most concerns, reflecting California’s voters, revolve around prioritizing the economy in general with immigration issues continuing to fall down the list of priorities. Most Americans don’t even want the kind of immigration barriers that are at the core of Trump politics.

In every Quinnipiac University Poll (considered a neutral source) conducted since late 2016 until the present (there have been eleven), for example, a clear majority of Americans has opposed the building of that Mexican wall. Quinnipiac polls have also averaged 80% in support of letting the DACA kids remain in the United States with a path to citizenship, and the only Quinnipiac poll on point (published April 9, 2018) shows that 71% of Americans do not believe that undocumented workers are more likely to commit crimes than average American citizens. These polls also reflect that majority of Americans do not believe that American citizens are losing jobs to these undocumented workers from south of the border.

But because a “wall” is so visible, so easy to explain (even though experts doubt that such a wall will remotely accomplish its stated purpose) that Republicans are attracted to making a non-issue their priority… so that if a wall is built they can take credit for “solving” a problem… that never was much of a problem in first place. Good optics. No real benefit. Politics. Moderate Republicans in Congress, a dying breed, understand that immigration compromise is what’s best for the country. They are quite willing to join with Democrats to find a workable solution. But their right wing colleagues stopped them dead in their tracks.

“The [Republican] party’s leadership, though, is dusting off the get-tough strategy of 1994 and 2010. John Cox, the [California] GOP candidate for governor endorsed by Trump, boasts of ‘leading the opposition’ to the sanctuary law in a TV ad. And he describes the immigrants as ‘illegal aliens,’ a phrase that invokes the polarizing fights of the past.

“The hard line on illegal immigration worked in 1994. But it’s haunted the party since, as public opinion shifted and Latinos grew in size and power. So why try it again?

“Because Republicans, now only 25% of the registered electorate [nationwide and in California], need to keep their base voters motivated and unified. Otherwise, the dynamics of a top-two primary — in which the biggest clusters of votes win [a California anomaly] — favors Democrats. History suggests it might be a clever game plan in June when more conservative primary voters tend to show up, but calamitous come November.” LA Times.  Trust me, there won’t be a Republican governor in California for a very long time, at least not with the current configuration of GOP values.

Trump populism: Declare a problem to exist. Harp on that repeatedly even if it is not a real issue. Convince slogan-believing constituents to believe a problem exists. Blame targeted minorities for as many ills as you can. Build a physical manifestation of what looks like a solution even if it isn’t. Take credit for saving America from that made-up problem and point to the wall as proof.

Indeed, “illegal immigration” and “build a wall” resonates heavily in red states where average members of the base seldom come into contract with undocumented workers and whose states are not dependent on such labor. Look at those sporadic “Trump rallies.” Woo hoo! They see economic pain; their populist leaders blame those undocumented workers for as much as they can, from crime to taking jobs away. That base is ready to buy into that populist scapegoat slogan, as false as it may be. But make no mistake, every penny dedicated to that wall is a waste. That waste is cutting down on infrastructure fixes, educational upgrades and job-creating federal research. America? You are the biggest loser!

I’m Peter Dekom, and I am watching a great nation unravel as it walks down a path of false assumptions, unworkable and policies, wholly fabricated issues, undemocratic practices, factual/ scientific denial and massive economic waste.