Incumbents = Old White Males

The midterms are most probably going to be decided by the turnout. A low turnout, where traditional non-voters stay away from the polls, predicts the GOP would control of both houses of Congress and most of the contested gubernatorial seats. A high turnout would reflect a general disenchantment with Donald Trump, the Republican message and would include elusive younger voters and minorities whose past apathy has kept them away in prior elections, especially those midterms where the “big office” of president is not up for a vote.

Most of the states released by the U.S. Supreme Court in Shelby County vs. Holder (2013) from federal voter-policy monitoring under the amended Voting Rights Act of 1965 have since mounted a concerted effort to restrict minority access to voting polls. Georgia’s Secretary of State, himself a candidate for Governor, has used the excuse of slight deviation in using initials in name or other minor changes to eliminate more than 50 thousand voters, mostly from minority areas, from being able to vote.

Other states mandate government-issued photo IDs as proof of eligibility (but if you can’t afford a car, you are not likely to have the required ID), while moving polling stations to lily-white neighborhoods far from minority enclaves as other popular sets of voting restrictions. And of course, there is the political hot potato that the Supreme Court has dodged, remanding a case back to the lower courts that it had accepted but changed its mind, on the issue of rampant partisan gerrymandering… the reality that allowed yet another election to hand the presidency to a candidate who lost the popular vote by seven figures.

But apathy remains the bane of the Democratic party. They have enough of the relevant sentiments among the general population to win the mid-terms, but their voting base, particularly among the young, tend not to vote particularly on the mid-terms.

“Voters aged 18 to 34 have cast ballots at lower rates than any other age group in every midterm election for the last 40 years, according to Census data. Fewer than 1 in 4 young adults voted in 2014, the last midterm election.

“Young people are highly mobile, making them harder and more expensive to reach. For campaigns, ‘That’s a pretty low return on investment,’ says Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, a Tufts University expert on the youth vote. ‘Once that perception is settled, it’s really hard to change strategies around it.’

“Her research center has ranked the top 50 congressional districts where a surge in youth voters could make a difference in close races. Eight are in California.

“The picture here has been even more grim. In 2014, only about 15% of California’s 1.8 million registered young voters bothered to turn out in November, according the California Civic Engagement Project.

“‘Is that a problem or is that an opportunity?’ [billionaire liberal activist Tom] Steyer said in an interview. ‘It’s the most diverse group in American history, biggest group, most progressive ... and they don’t vote, so let’s ignore them? Really?’” Los Angeles Times, October 22^nd. While cost considerations are a strategic factor for any political party, this time the Dems are significantly out-raising their Republican counterparts. Steyer’s NextGen America advocacy group has pledged $33 million to engage young voters in 11 states — $3.5 million alone in California. But will it work?

On the heels of his tax reform act, an economic failure that Trump has convinced his base was a big winner, raw unemployment statistics with a hefty stock market valuation, and his success overcoming “meToo” issues and placing another conservative on the Supreme Court, despite his erratic and unstable governing side, Donald Trump is enjoying record popularity. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll “found that 47 percent of respondents approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 49 percent disapprove. That is the best he's done in the NBC/WSJ poll since taking office. And it represents a major jump in the president's popularity; the same poll found him with a 39 percent approval rating six months ago.” USA Today, October 22^nd. 

Are there enough angry women ignored by the GOP, gun-terrified late-teenagers, young folks with intolerable student loan debt, minorities who have been further left behind and folks who remain aghast at Trump’s rather blasé approach to morality and decorum to make a difference? Or will Trump’s rising popularity and strong economic numbers numb the nation to maintaining GOP dominance across the land?

I’m Peter Dekom, and those who whine about our current political polarized mess and the clear and increasing isolation of the United States in a world of nations should take a pledge of silence… unless they actually vote!