Talibondage – Out of Control

It’s easy to miss huge stories of global significance to the United States in the tsunami of the media reportage of the Trump-storm of news.  But after trillions of dollars of missteps in Iraq and Afghanistan – with absolutely nothing, perhaps way less than nothing, gained for the United States – Donald Trump is saddled with a continuation of a war without seeming end, one he doesn’t seem to know how to “solve.” We’ve long-since lost 60%-Shiite Iraq within the hegemony of 90%+ Shiite Iran. Now we are about to pull out of the failed state we imposed in Afghanistan.

The same kind of Saudi-funded fundamentalists who staff al Qaeda and other comparable Sunni terrorist organizations are equally present in the Taliban, who dominate Afghanistan. In fairness to Mr. Trump, he didn’t start this war – that honor lies with George W. Bush – and Trump seems to be struggling with how to end this debacle with any form of dignity… the same issue that dragged through Barrack Obama’s entire presidency. Here’s our reality check.

The incumbent Afghan Taliban have opposed us and the government we put in place in Kabul every step of the way. That “democratic” system we imposed when we drove the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan in 2001, according to the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, is listed at 177 among 180 nations presented in terms of corruption. Only Syria, Somalia and South Sudan register as more corrupt. Warlords and Taliban have slowly regained territory, but it is the Taliban who control or contest the government’s hold on the bulk of the rest of the country as the above map reflects.

“The Taliban ruled Afghanistan until the U.S. drove it from power in 2001. The story of how the resurgent militants have gained the upper hand in a strategically vital province illustrates the crisis facing the Afghanistan government as well as the Trump administration, which has been grasping for a way to end the war and for the first time considering direct peace talks with the insurgents…

“As early as 2015, shortly after the last U.S. forces left Ghazni province under a NATO drawdown, the Taliban controlled more territory there than the Afghan government did, according to the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a Kabul-based think tank.

“The insurgents mostly confined themselves to rural areas, collecting taxes and adjudicating disputes. But starting this April, Taliban fighters began seizing the centers of ‘safe’ districts close to the provincial capital, the country’s sixth-largest city, about 80 miles southwest of Kabul.

“In most cases, fighters withdrew from the district centers — which house the offices of local administrators — as Afghan forces retook control within hours or days… But the attacks reinforced a message that has become abundantly clear in recent years: With nearly half of Afghanistan’s people living in areas where the government doesn’t have full control, the Taliban could attack anywhere…

“Afghan President Ashraf Ghani recently acknowledged that more than 28,000 Afghan soldiers and police had been killed since 2015 — a figure that surpassed even gloomier estimates. (About 2,200 U.S. service members have been killed in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion.)”  Los Angeles Times, December 1^st.

In addition to Saudi donors and extracting “taxes” from those within its territorial grasp, the Taliban have benefitted greatly from the massive fields of opium-laden poppies as one of the greatest sources of high-grade heroin on earth. Taliban fighters also commonly extort locals for food and shelter, cut power lines in cities where electricity is an essential commodity, and generally get what they demand. Money and arms do not seem to be much of a problem for this relatively well-funded group of Sunni extremists.

Life in Taliban strongholds or in contested areas is sheer hell for the local residents, mostly shopkeepers, shepherds and farmers. “In August, the militants attacked the city of Ghazni, unleashing four days of fighting that left more than 100 Afghan soldiers and police dead. It took a barrage of U.S. airstrikes and the arrival of several dozen U.S. special operations troops — some of whom were injured in the fighting — to take back the city… But the Taliban was only getting started…

“For more than a year, a group of shepherds in Jaghori, a peaceful highland district of apple orchards and sloping hills in western Ghazni, had been talking up the Taliban… ‘They were spreading rumors about how well equipped and dangerous the Taliban are now,’ said Aref Ahmadi, a 42-year-old farmer whose family faced threats from the group starting in 2016, when a photo of his 5-year-old son wearing a homemade jersey of Argentine soccer star Lionel Messi went viral.

“Jaghori was long known as one of the country’s safest districts. Made up mainly of ethnic Hazaras — a close-knit Shiite Muslim minority that has been persecuted by the Taliban and other extremists — it avoided bloodshed in part by allowing the militants to pass through their farmlands if they didn’t attack the local population.

“But in early November, Ahmadi recalled, the pro-Taliban shepherds suddenly disappeared. A couple of days later, they returned in the company of marauding Taliban fighters, pointing out the houses of pro-government militia commanders and Hazara civilians who possessed weapons, he said.

“The Taliban assault on Jaghori killed dozens of Afghan soldiers and police, and spread to the neighboring district of Malistan. Thousands of residents fled to Kabul, the Afghan capital, and other cities… When protesters marched on the presidential palace in Kabul to condemn the attacks, a suicide bomber struck, killing at least six.

“Afghan officials say they have regained control of the districts, but only about 300 families have returned, said Mohammad Arif Noori, a spokesman for the provincial governor… ‘The government has told us to return in order to receive aid, but I can’t take the chance,’ said Ahmadi, who fled to Kabul with his family. ‘There’s no guarantee that the district won’t fall again.’” LA Times. So what is really happening behind the scenes?

President Trump’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is on the verge of meeting with Taliban leaders in the neutral country of Qatar. The Taliban are ramping up their attacks in the Afghan countryside to be able to negotiate from a greater position of strength; they are acutely aware of Trump’s predilection to announce great political victories even when in fact such braggadocio covers up failure. They seem to believe that Trump’s yearning for an announcement of the total withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan will force that result before the U.S. Presidential elections in 2020.

The Taliban are already smacking their lips, as the “democratic” government, despised by most Afghanis because of corruption, continues to struggle: “There are other problems in Kabul. Results from October’s nationwide parliamentary elections — which weren’t held in Ghazni because of insecurity — have yet to be announced because of widespread problems with new biometric devices used to verify voter identities.

“The chaos has led to speculation that the presidential election scheduled for next April will be postponed, dealing another blow to the legitimacy of Ghani’s government and strengthening the Taliban… ‘The Taliban are looking for political fragmentation in Kabul so they can engage directly with individual political groups, and they could become the major force,’ said Haroun Mir, a political analyst.” LA Times. Whatever the result, we already know it will not be good for the United States, our power and influence or for peace and stability in the Muslim world.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and when you consider the chaos in Syria, the escalation of tensions between Palestinians and Israeli fomented by Trump policies, the rise of Iranian power (absorbing Iraq within its sphere of influence), our loss of global credibility in supporting a murderous regime in Saudi Arabia, and the added pressure of a failed Afghanistan, we have greatly contributed to regional instability and gained nothing in return.