Automated Vehicles 4.0

Driving back from San Francisco (to Los Angeles) over the holidays, I drove past a Tesla just after it had passed a truck on the I-5 south. I had to slow down and take another look, which confirmed what I saw the first time: the driver’s seat was fully reclined… and he was fast asleep. I had read stories about Teslas crashing and others about self-driving cars saving lives. But I had never actually witnessed a self-driving car in action.

Still, the phenomenon is fascinating. For example, “Joshua Neally says he suffered a pulmonary embolism [in July of 2016] while behind the wheel of the Tesla Model X, which features auto-driving technology, that he had purchased a week earlier… ‘It was kinda getting scary. I called my wife and just said, ‘something’s wrong,’ and I couldn’t breathe, I was gasping, kind of hyperventilating,’ the attorney from Springfield, Missouri, told KY3 News. ‘I just knew I had to get there, to the ER.’…Instead of pulling over to call 911 and wait for an ambulance, the 37-year-old father said he was able to direct his car to the nearest hospital.” Huffington Post, 8/8/16. It saved his life.

Nevertheless, this is hardly the pervasive technology that should be redefining American highways today. “Driverless car technology is developing more slowly than Silicon Valley companies were predicting several years ago. Deployment plans have been delayed, including GM Cruise’s intent to have robotaxis operating commercially on the streets of San Francisco by now.

“But development inches forward. Waymo, the driverless car offshoot of Google, is already operating a commercial robotaxi service in the Phoenix area and is offering driverless rides to employees and guests on public roads in Silicon Valley. Waymo wants to offer a small-scale robotaxi service there, but so far, the state’s Public Utilities Commission, which regulates ride-hailing services, won’t allow it to charge for rides.

“Companies such as Beep and Voyage are experimenting with driverless shuttles in retirement communities in Florida. Ford is testing a robotaxi service in Miami. Waymo, TuSimple and Starsky Robotics are operating driverless trucks on public highways in Arizona and Florida.

“One reason that development has slowed: the March 2018 tragedy in Arizona in which a woman walking a bicycle across a highway was struck and killed by a driverless Uber vehicle when the safety backup driver at the wheel did not react in time.

“Although crashes and deaths are inevitable whether humans or robots are driving motor vehicles, most manufacturers say they’re striving to be as responsible about deployment as possible. A driverless-vehicle industry and consumer coalition called PAVE was formed last year to educate the public and policymakers on driverless technology and to address safety concerns.

“Some driverless technology advocates assert that current systems already are safer than humans, but statistics don’t yet exist to prove it. About 40,000 people were killed because of roadway crashes in 2018, with 95% of those caused by human error, according to the Transportation Department. ‘Realizing the vast potential of AVs will require collaboration and information sharing’ among industry, government and institutions involved in auto safety, [speaking at CES 2020, US Secretary of Transportation, Elaine] Chao said.” Los Angeles Times, January 9^th.

The advent of a network of mostly driverless cars is inevitable. Not only does the launch of many more highly accurate GPS satellites supported by artificial intelligence enable the technology, but the pressures over fossil fuels and inadequate/crumbling infrastructure may mandate that result. Shifting to electrical and fuel cell power will combine with increased pressure to use fossil fuels sparingly simply based on the double whammy of dwindling supplies and climate change realities. Not to mention the conflicts generated, particularly in the Middle East, in nations where petroleum extraction is the underlying driving force.

As infrastructure demands escalate, the obvious result of a growing population, we need to rebuild and expand our existing vehicular capacity. Given recent GOP-in-charge priorities to cut taxes for the rich but allow infrastructure to continue to decay, there needs to be a mechanism to shift the solution back to the private sector or we may watch our roads and bridges unravel to unusable. Driverless cars and trucks allow computers to utilize existing capacity much more efficiently, decreasing the pressure to raise taxes to expand our existing infrastructure.

And like it or not, even for those of us who love our cars, safety concerns only push that technology further forward. Human error needs to be minimized or eliminated. But laws need to determine who is liable in an accident, what driver responsibility must remain and whether special privileges and incentives – even mandates – can be implemented to accelerate the process. We also have to address the very serious issues that arise from hackers, foreign powers attacking our digital infrastructure and unfortunately our vulnerable dependence on ubiquitous technology. But the feds are all for it.

“Federal driverless vehicle guidelines have been issued on a roughly annual basis since 2016, with a strong emphasis on ‘voluntary guidance.’ The federal government sets safety standards and the states are in charge of licensing. In California the Department of Motor Vehicles has established rules for driverless deployment that include insurance requirements as well as requirements that local safety officials be informed when robot cars are operating in their area.

“Some safety advocates say regulators haven’t caught up with the technology. But rather than push new rules, the Transportation Department has been issuing suggestions and encouraging cooperation on a uniform approach to driverless technology development among federal, state and local government officials and industry.

“The biggest change in the new set of guidelines, called Automated Vehicles 4.0, is a streamlined system of federal oversight. Chao said the new guidelines ‘unified AV efforts across 38 federal departments, independent agencies, commissions and executive offices of the president.’” LA Times.

Instead of limiting where driverless vehicles can be used, federal rules are clearly encouraging the expanded use of this technology. Cities and states too have to address local concerns as this change begins to redefine driving. Uber and Lyft have gone a long way to make car ownership for urban young adults less attractive… as have skyrocketing purchase/lease, insurance, fuel and parking costs, particularly when student loans need to be repaid. But there are still lots of folks who will go kicking and screaming as we take control of their cars or provide transportation alternatives.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and the future is knocking, no actually pounding, at our door.