Hot, Hotter, Hottest

The problem with the too many people’s notion of global climate change is that even without dramatic decreases in greenhouse emissions, the earth will eventually adjust to the change, and humanity – with some loss of habitat – will figure out how to continue. Maybe there will technology to cope with it, or perhaps we will just get used to the “new normal.” The problem with that approach is that it posits a stopping point to the negative impacts of climate change, one that the world, however awkwardly, can get used to.

We look at numbers like 3 to 5 degrees centigrade (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) of average increased global temperatures as worst-case scenarios for a distant future. As nasty as those numbers are, the problem is vastly more complex. Global warming is already accelerating faster than scientists have predicted. As long as greenhouse gasses continue, global warming will not stop; there is a cumulative effect. Heat levels will slide right past those current worst-case numbers to numbers that, as some point, could threaten life on earth. I doubt that anyone living will be part of the apocalypse, but there’s enough bad stuff for those of us who are here now.

The problem at some point gets much worse even after the man-released greenhouse gasses subside. Tundra (permafrost) contains massive amounts of organically-created methane – which is about 24 times more concentrated than mere carbon dioxide – which is released as the tundra melts. In huge quantities. That in turn exacerbates global temperatures which in turn melts more tundra. And so, the cycle continues, even without any further contributions from mankind. Additionally, as ice and snow trapped in glaciers and at the Poles melts, we (a) lose that white heat-reflective surface that mitigates global warming and (b) we get more exposed and open ocean and land mass, which is darker and absorbs more atmospheric heat. That cycle also repeats.

Despite our individual experiences, probably on beachy vacations, with hot humid climate, most of us have only selective experience with sustained periods of heat. To put it mildly, humans and many animals do not function well in periods of extreme heat. Add a massive uptick in the use of air conditioning, for people able to afford it, and we see more energy consumption and hence issues with creating the necessary power.

Here’s how the average human body actually works in sustained heat, particularly with the likely increase in humidity that often accompanies higher temperatures. “At an intense level of combined heat and humidity—a ‘wet bulb’ reading of 35 degrees Celsius [95 degrees Fahrenheit], hotter and more humid than humans have ever experienced—the air will become so muggy that people can’t sweat and their organs begin to shut down. A healthy person sitting outside could eventually overheat and die, even if they’re resting in the shade. And by 2030, there’s a chance that this type of deadly heat wave could hit regions in India where as many as 200 million people live.

“A new report from McKinsey Global Institute [Climate Risk and Response: Physical Hazards and Socioeconomic Impacts (January 2020)] looks at the risk of extreme heat in India along with eight other case studies of the potential physical risks of climate change over the next three decades, from the future of the food supply in Africa to the economic impact of rising sea levels and devalued houses in Florida. ‘Our contribution here is really taking the science and translating that to impact for individuals, for companies, for countries,’ says Mekala Krishnan, one of the co-authors of the report and a senior fellow at McKinsey. The report also presents a framework that people can use to think about a type of risk that we’ve never experienced before: For more than 10,000 years, and the entire history of human civilization, the climate has been relatively stable. Now it is not.” Adele Peters writing for the January 16^th FastCompany.com.

That McKinsey report tells us that: Warming is ‘locked in’ for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system… We find that physical risk from a changing climate is already present and growing. Seven characteristics stand out. Physical climate risk is:

Increasing: In each of our nine cases, the level of physical climate risk increases by 2030 and further by 2050. Across our cases, we find increases in socioeconomic impact of between roughly two and 20 times by 2050 versus today’s levels. We also find physical climate risks are increasing across our global country analysis even as some countries find some benefits (such as expected increase in agricultural yields in countries such as Canada).

Spatial: Climate hazards manifest locally. The direct impacts of physical climate risk thus need to be understood in the context of a geographically defined area. There are variations between countries and within countries.

Non-stationary: As the Earth continues to warm, physical climate risk is ever-changing or non-stationary. Further warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system. Climate science tells us that further warming and risk increase can only be stopped by achieving zero net greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, given the thermal inertia of the earth system, some amount of warming will also likely occur after net-zero emissions are reached.

Nonlinear: Socioeconomic impacts are likely to propagate in a nonlinear way as hazards reach thresholds beyond which the affected physiological, human-made, or ecological systems work less well or break down and stop working altogether. This is because such systems have evolved or been optimized over time for historical climates…

In other words, whatever we think our worst problems on earth might be, nothing threatens life more than does continuing global climate change. We deal with it or millions, eventually billions, will die. The photograph above, taken of a dying koala in the worst bushfires in recorded history raging in Australia that have killed an estimated one billion animals, is what climate change looks and feels like. I don’t think we “just get used to it.” Ever.

            I’m Peter Dekom, any global leader who denies climate change or simply makes it worse does not deserve to remain in office.