Meanwhile, the Rudderless Ship Sails into Foreign Waters

The pandemic has the focus of most Americans, even as we are at each other’s throats as the above rather genuine sign from Tennessee (one of the southern states that is in the process of reopening without adhering to federal guidelines) suggests. The great red state “it’s a blue state big city problem, not ours” mantra vs the blue state “stacking bodies and watching healthcare workers go down” desperation have been exacerbated by Trump’s open encouragement of “go back to work” protestors against the very restrictions in his own federal “reopening” guidelines. Trump is laser-focused on the economy, his strong suit of electability vs the pandemic which is losing him voters in big city swing states. Getting that stock market metric back up by the election is his goal. 

“States are safely coming back. Our Country is starting to OPEN FOR BUSINESS again,” tweets the President ignoring the death tolls that continue to rise in many parts of the nation. “Even as states move ahead with plans to reopen, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned a second wave of the coronavirus could be worse if it coincides with the start of seasonal flu season… ‘There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,’ CDC Director Robert Redfield said in a Washington Post interview published on Tuesday [4/21].” Reuters, April 22^nd. A statement amplified below.

As was the case in the 1918-20 Spanish Flu outbreak – which killed more than 50 million people worldwide and about 675,000 in the United States – second and additional waves in major pandemics often infect and kill many more people than the first wave. “The director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that a potential second wave of the novel coronavirus could be far more fatal than the current phase of the pandemic because it may overlap with the beginning of flu season this winter.” Huffington Post, April 22^nd. The second wave could hit right after the November election. After. Thus, not a concern for a President who has prioritized the economy as a priority over life. “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.” Donald Trump, March 24^th, a policy he has stuck with right up to the present.

But Trump can’t put all his cards on the economy, and while he may be able to convince his base – mostly red state rural value voters – he’s been an effective leader in the pandemic, focused on their wellbeing by accelerating reopening the economy (what they want to hear), that position isn’t gaining traction with the much-needed independent voters. He needs more issues.

Tough on immigration remains a most basic policy in his political quiver – embracing both the xenophobia if not outright racism in a very large segment of his constituency – so shutting down all forms of non-temporary farmworker immigration is now the subject of his latest executive order. The base just eats that up. The US actually admitted 110,000 permanent immigrant residents during the Spanish Flu pandemic, erecting no special walls to that process. This ban will have little or no impact on containing the virus, as experts continue to point out. It’s all show for the base.

In foreign policy, Trump seems to be inviting a confrontation with both China and Iran, perhaps believing that a few get tough bullets and blasts would bolster his perception with voters as a strong and decisive leader. There are obvious risks that could backfire. Unfortunately, little of this machismo is a product of deep strategic planning. Most of it is a reflection of his “shoot from the hip,” ad hoc policy-making. Clearly foreign affairs are not a particularly strong suit for Trump, and he is lucky that but for overt xenophobia, his base simply does not care much about what goes on outside of our borders.

Let’s start with Iran, which just surprised the West by launching a rocket to place its first military satellite in orbit. Doesn’t seem that shutting down the nuclear containment accord is generating any immediate enhancements American security. Trump wants to appear tough with Iran, particularly now that the oil markets have collapsed, taking away Iran’s biggest potential threat (by mining the seaways where oil tankers ply their trade). Although US and Iranian naval vessels have been playing cat and mouse in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the narrow Strait of Hormuz, for years, Trump believes it is now time to shoot. “Amid tensions with Iran, President Donald Trump said Wednesday [4/22] on Twitter he has given orders for the Navy to ‘shoot down and destroy’ any Iranian gunboats found to be harassing U.S. ships.

“A U.S. Navy video last week [mid-April] showed small Iranian fast boats coming close to American warships as they operated in the northern Persian Gulf near Kuwait, with U.S. Army Apache helicopters… ‘I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,’ Trump tweeted.” Associated Press, April 22^nd. Why now? There’s an election pending. And his theme against Joe Biden is that the former Vice President is weak against our traditional enemies. Really? Who cozied up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and China’s Xi Jinping? Trump’s admitted buddies?

China raked Trump over the coals in recent trade negotiations. Phase one, which had an out in event of a pandemic at time when China had reason to believe one was building, is thus no longer operative, even as Trump is paying to send cargo planes to China to pick up increasingly pricey (read: profitable to China) PPE supplies that are made there and not much here. But with global focus on COVID-19, given the dramatic escalation in Cold War-like tensions between China – blamed for the virus pandemic – and the United States, Trump needed to show his voters his “toughness against China,” clearly building a campaign strategy that Biden is just a pro-China weakling.

In particular, the United States seemed to want to press against China’s continued efforts to build out its man-made island military base in the Spratly Islands, which initially drew other nations in the region to object… until they realized that Trump’s America was no longer a reliable ally and that China was the new kingpin on the block. Ready to capitalize on any regional tensions to reverse that perception, the Trump administration just made its move: “The USS America (LHA-6) is steaming into the South China Sea, where a Chinese survey ship along with its Chinese Coast Guard escorts are currently locked in a standoff with Malaysia.

“Reports said the amphibious assault ship was carrying a combat element of at least five Marine F-35B Lightning II fighters as well as MV-22Bs tiltrotors and CH-53 helicopters. The USS Theodore Roosevelt, which was deployed around the waters earlier as a countervailing influence to Chinese actions, is now docked in Guam after coronavirus infections spread among its crew. That probably explains the decision to send the USS America in a show of solidarity with Malaysia and Vietnam, which have been alarmed by the latest aggressive actions by China.    

“Previously, the U.S. had asked China to cease its ‘bullying behavior’ in the sea. Several alarming reports on a series of provocative actions by Beijing inside what Malaysia claims as its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) have surfaced in recent days. Those actions probably prompted the U.S. warship to leap into action.” International Business Times, April 21^st. 

But Trump is also anxious to show himself as a peacemaker, succeeding where no other president has achieved much of anything. The nuclear menace: North Korea. Despite major showmanship, lots of “let me make you seem really important Kim” meetings where a US president traveled to Asia to meet with Kim Jong Un and a flurry of positive messaging, Trump appears mired in same litany of US failures to disarm North Korea as his predecessors. He has accomplished nothing. The nukes are still there and growing. Rocket and missile tests continue as North Korea continues to increase the range of these weapons. Yet Trump continues with platitudes that everything is under control, that he and Kim (who seems to be recovering from major heart surgery) are in constant and cordial communication. Except they aren’t.

“Trump said during a press briefing on the coronavirus pandemic Saturday [4/18] that ‘I received a nice note from him [Kim] recently. It was a nice note. I think we’re doing fine.’ Trump also defended now-stalled nuclear diplomacy with Kim, saying the U.S. would have been at war with North Korea if he had not been elected.

“North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that there was no letter addressed to Trump recently by ‘the supreme leadership,’ a reference to Kim… It said it would examine why the U.S. leadership released ‘the ungrounded story’ to the media.” Time Magazine, April 19^th.

Donald Trump does one thing particularly well: spinning utter failure into evidence of his successful leadership. And his base keeps buying into that mythology. Given his complete ability to dominate media coverage during this pandemic, which could easily overwhelm Joe Biden’s efforts for campaign visibility, do not be surprised if Donald John “are you tired of losing yet?” Trump wins a second term in November. Those regional state alliances formed to create a more coordinated response to COVID-19 just might just represent the borders of new nations formed if that election result fractures the United States. It almost happened in 1861. And it definitely could happen now.

          I’m Peter Dekom, and as internal polarization further fractionalizes the country into even harder lines, as the nation continues to underscore its growing global perception as an untrustworthy rogue player, these words from Abraham Lincoln echo in my mind: "A house divided against itself, cannot stand."