A Good Thing or Just Fixing a Bad Thing -Reconstructing the Middle East

The Middle East is among the most complex geopolitical regions on earth. A mild understatement. As the stepson of the U.S. Foreign Service Officer, I had the pleasure of living in an Arab country, albeit one that had a very sizeable Christian population (once a majority), in the early 1960s. While I was just a teenager, I was old enough to understand what I heard and saw in Lebanon. My blog today will ultimately address the new diplomatic ties between Israel and the third Arab nation to make that connection: The United Arab Emirates, which joins Jordan and Egypt in officially recognizing the State of Israel.

But first, a walk back in time to understand the history that led this region to such turmoil. As the great Western colonial powers carved up control among each other over lands in Asia (including the Middle East) and Africa, allied powers sensing an eventual victory over Germany, Austria and the Ottoman Empire, began drawing up post WWI borders even in the early days of the conflict. These were lines on a map, some following rivers, others simply a pencil line drawn with a ruler. What was once the cradle of civilization had fallen into disrepair, and European modernity easily dominated lands that were significantly still tribal, much hot, dry and lacking water. The discovery of oil came later. The then-secret Sykes-Picot treaty of 1916 between France and the UK, for example, set their respective future spheres of influence and control (see the above map).

Sykes-Picot was quickly followed by the Balfour Declaration (see above document with a picture of Lord Balfour), “a public statement issued by the British government in 1917 during the First World War announcing support for the establishment of a ‘national home for the Jewish people’ in Palestine, then an Ottoman region with a small minority Jewish population… The declaration was contained in a letter dated 2 November 1917 from the United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour to Lord Rothschild, a leader of the British Jewish community, for transmission to the Zionist Federation of Great Britain and Ireland. The text of the declaration was published in the press on 9 November 1917.” Wikipedia.

After the Nazi persecutions of WWII, European Jews faced stiff local and British armed resistance when they effectively implemented the Balfour Declaration and emigrated to Palestine. In 1948, the State of Israel was born. Recognized by both the United States and United Nations, Israel then faced constant wars with her Arab neighbors as they tried to push the young Jewish state out to sea. Israel was an embarrassing thorn in the side of the Arab world. I recall the loud and vituperative radio harangues as Gamal Abul Nasar – Egypt’s leader (which included Syria for a time in the United Arab Republic) and dominate political figure for the Middle East. Nasar needed angry Palestinians and their “eviction” from their homeland by Jewish forces as his raison d’etre, his distraction from his own economic failures. Palestinians were to be despised and disenfranchised to justify Nasar’s quest for power. As Arabs fought and lost conflicts with Israel, those Palestinians unwilling to live in mainstream Israel were relegated to Gaza and the West Bank of the Jordan River, both under Israeli control.

Assassinations and the passage of time kept the anti-Zionist spark alive, but a new enemy appeared in 1979. Islam is principally divided into those who read the Quran literally (Sunnis, representing almost 80% of the faith) and those who rely on Imams (later Ayatollahs) to interpret the Holy Book, too mystical for a lay believer to understand (Shiites, around 20% of the Muslim world). Although there have been sizeable pockets of Shiite population growth in Lebanon and Yemen, Iran (95% Shiite) and Iraq (60% Shiite) contain the largest concentrations of the segment of the faith. And to religious Sunnis, Shiites’ denial of the literal word of God was an unforgivable apostasy.

Until 1979, Iran was contained by a Western-appointed secular ruler, Shah Pahlavi, and the religious zealot of the country were deeply repressed. Although Iraq was mostly Shiite, it was ruled by brutal Sunni dictator, Saddam Hussein. So that Shiite movement was not much of a regional political threat. The Shah was deposed in Iran, and the nation become a Shiite theocracy overnight. Iran immediately had regional aspirations. Initially, the Arab world felt Iran was contained, even though nearby Syria (80% Sunni) was ruled by the Assad family (from the 10% of Syrians that were Alawite Shiites). Afghanistan had the uber-Sunni Taliban (who had defeated the Soviets who supported the old regime), and fundamentalist Sunni Saudi Arabia across the Red Sea to help to contain this Shiite upstart.

When 9/11/01 happened, and later when the Bush Administration needed a convenient war to get Congress to repeal the post-Vietnam War restrictions imposed on presidential power, the Middle East turned upside down. The US invasion of Iraq under a false, make-believe, pretense of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, deposed Sunni Saddam Hussein and installed a majority Shiite government. The new Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad wreaked revenge on Sunnis. The Shiite government in Damascus ran roughshod over the Sunni majority. All of this in the Middle of one of the worst long-term droughts in history. ISIS rose specifically to “protect” these disenfranchised Sunnis… protection that rapidly evolved into cruel and murderous brutality. And ISIS took on the mantle of being powerfully anti-Shiite, anti-Iran and anti-Baghdad. They hated Shiites far more than they despised Israel.

Iran rapidly consolidated its de facto control over Iraq, a nation that Washington still labeled an ally. It wasn’t. It used its Hezbollah surrogates to seize power in Lebanon and supported rebellious Shiite Houthis in Yemen at Saudi Arabia’s border.  Iran was a nuclear power wannabe, with a very sophisticated program based on North Korean expertise. It openly challenged Israel, sabre rattled and threatened to destroy the Jewish state. Odd that the traditional Sunni Arab states and Israel now had common interest in repressing Iran and its regional aspirations.

The fragile six-party UN nuclear accord slowed if not stopped Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. But that pause began to unravel when Donald Trump pulled the United States out of that treaty. Meanwhile, seemingly bitter enemies on the surface, Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies were secretly cooperating in the mutual desire to contain Iran. As much as the Arab world felt betrayed by US polices favoring permanent Jewish settlements (annexation) on the West Bank, rejecting of the two state solution (Palestine as a separate nation) and moving the Israeli capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem (a city scared to Muslims too), they also understood a need to back channel with Israel over a common enemy.

The United States came under instantaneous global condemnation because of its hard alteration of policies, seeming willing to do whatever Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu wanted in order pander to Trump’s evangelical base. Netanyahu enjoyed the glow, even as he was indicted for purported corruption, and he and Trump were on Israeli election posters everywhere. But Israel’s excessively hardline was costing a tiny country, facing a massive COVID-19 resurgence, valuable capital and influence. Trump’s international failures were only adding to his rapid fall in US polls as our own pandemic spiraled farther out of control. What to do? Undo the mistakes as much as possible, pretend they never happened… and…

The United Arab Emirates are an oil-rich Arab financial hub with some of the most modern architecture on earth. They have deep trading infrastructure, a highly professional financial network and have always nurtured close ties with powerful developed countries. The notion using all that power and expertise has driven their leadership to increase and solidify relationships with the West and to act as a regional mediator among Arab states with often differing political agendas. Most of all, they are not part of the Iranian growing Shiite monolith that neighboring states fear. So, on August 13^th:

“Israel struck a diplomatic agreement with the United Arab Emirates on Thursday [8/13] to establish ‘full normalization of relations’ even as it forgoes for now plans to annex occupied West Bank territory in order to focus on improving its ties with the rest of the Arab world… In a surprise statement issued by the White House, President Trump said he brokered a deal that would lead to Israel and the Emirates signing a string of bilateral agreements on investment, tourism, security, technology, energy and other areas while moving to allow direct flights between their countries and set up reciprocal embassies.

“‘As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough and at the request of President Trump with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in the President’s Vision for Peace and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world,’ according to a statement released by the White House and described as a joint declaration of Israel, the Emirates and the United States.

“If fulfilled, the agreement would make the Emirates the third Arab country to establish normal diplomatic relations with Israel after Egypt, which signed a landmark peace agreement in 1979, and Jordan, which signed a treaty in 1994. It could reorder the long stalemate in the region, potentially leading other Arab nations to follow suit in an increasingly open alignment with Israel against their mutual enemy in Iran while taking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s explosive annexation plan off the table, at least for the moment.

“But it generated an immediate backlash among some Israeli settlers and their political allies who have been eager to establish sovereignty over West Bank territory, as well as from Palestinians who felt abandoned by an Arab nation to remain locked in an untenable status quo even without the threat of annexation looming…

“In his own tweet, [UAE]Prince Mohammed [ben Zayed]emphasized Israel’s agreement to suspend annexation. “During a call with President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, an agreement was reached to stop further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories,” he wrote. “The UAE and Israel also agreed to cooperation and setting a roadmap towards establishing a bilateral relationship.”” New York Times, August 13^th. Fixing an earlier mistake or not, adjusting to the reality of falling polls or not, this move was a triumph for President Trump, particularly if Israel truly abandons its West Bank annexation plans permanently. Democratic Joe Biden congratulated the two Middle Eastern powers in reaching this accord.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and Donald Trump’s brokering this peace accord could be a giant step forward in finding a path to stabilize one of the most volatile regions in the world.