As the President Lets Go of the Reins

 

“The North Koreans would much rather see Trump than Biden… Trump is the perfect mark: loves the show,doesn’t care about substance and hates the alliance [with South Korea] — the polar opposite of Biden.”

Victor Cha, President George W. Bush’s negotiator with North Korea.

The GOP Convention is upon us. Hoopla! Self-congratulations! Optimism! Recasting failure as success. Distorting numbers. Denying facts. Making promises, most of which cannot be kept. Trump’s foreign policy buddies are having the best time. President Xi of China, once a “best friend” is now the cause of all of our woes and needs to pay for it.

Nothing “China” in Trump’s efforts paid off. The trade agreement, hardly determinative when made, fell apart. China is clamping down on Hong Kong, decimating basic liberties. It is also making clear that the South China Sea is their sphere of influence to the exclusion of the United States. But they are continuing their Uighur concentration (“reeducation”) camps with over a million people being “processed” behind walls and barbed wire… to which Trump gave a wink of support. 

The United Arab Emirates – which depends on links to Western trade and financial institutions – seemed to have made a big concession to recognize Israel. Israel, which never formally implemented any West Bank annexation move, agreed to take that plan off the table… for now. Huge foreign policy victory for Trump. Israel gave nothing, really. Why did the UAE do this? Ah… it seems that they have been lobbying for state-of-the-art stealth F-35s to counter Iran. And it seems that this back-room deal is happening. So, arming an Arab country with the latest and the greatest is the subtext. 

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin continues to direct his military intelligence units to amp up their assault on the US election, an effort that seemed to begin with the 2016 election and only increased from there. Hacking candidates and parties that do not serve Moscow’s interests – like anyone opposing Trump and the GOP – and releasing those hacked files (real and doctored) to a hungry Western press, rapidly becoming extensions of Russia’s propaganda efforts. Planting seeds of disinformation and voter manipulation, even seeking direct access to voting machines, are all part of this sinister effort. Oddly, virtually all of these efforts are focused on taking down Democrats with no serious efforts to disparage and disqualify GOP candidates. Never happened according to Trump, contradicting every US government inquiry into the matter. Forget about the federal indictment of 12 Russian military operatives accused of hacking. 

And then there’s North Korea and Kim Jong-un. Trump claims he avoided WWIII and the release of the North’s nuclear arsenal against targets inside the United States through his efforts. Really? North Korea would have launched an attack that literally assured its own obliteration? Maybe but unlikely. It’s really hard to prove what didn’t happen. 

Kim got international recognition, elevated to important enough for a US President to meet with him… three times… including in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) at the 38th parallel between the two Koreas. And Korea hasn’t given up anything at all. They’ve tested more, built more weapons and delivery systems and scoffed at Trump’s efforts to contain them. Even as Trump brags about his “special relationship” with Kim Jong-un, it has been a one-way street. 

“Almost four years after that meeting at the White House, as Trump faces the prospect of possibly turning over the presidency to Joe Biden, there is little evidence the danger has been reduced, despite the most sustained and aggressive diplomacy of Trump’s tenure… If anything, North Korea poses a greater threat, according to Korea specialists: The country has tested and developed more weapons; its leader, Kim Jong Un, has become less isolated; and international resolve to confront North Korea has weakened after Trump’s three meetings with Kim. 

“Victor Cha, who negotiated with North Korea for President George W. Bush and was once considered for a top post in the Trump administration, warned in a recent podcast of ‘the big choice that’s coming down’ as North Korea’s weapons program advances… Soon, he said, North Korea may reach the point at which American leaders will have to consider tacitly accepting the country as a nuclear power in exchange for limits and verification of Pyongyang’s stockpile. 

“Cha did not advocate that approach, which would be a fundamental change from decades of American insistence that North Korea drop its nuclear program entirely. But the fact that he broached it points to the lack of options America has in dealing with the secretive and autocratic adversary. 

“North Korea wants to be ‘like an India or Pakistan,’ both of which developed nuclear weapons in violation of international anti-proliferation efforts, said Jung Pak, who helped with transition efforts at the CIA when Trump took office and is now an informal advisor to [Joe] Biden. ‘Everybody just looks the other way.’… Kim ‘needs periodic bouts of tension and military aggression to maintain his rule,’ Pak said. ‘So he doesn’t want peace.’… 

“Trump’s declaration in 2018, after his first meeting with Kim, that North Korea is ‘no longer a nuclear threat’ rings increasingly hollow, according to experts who served administrations of both parties…. In John Bolton’s recent memoir about his time serving as Trump’s national security advisor, he portrayed the president as ill-informed about history, unwilling to prepare for talks with Kim and obsessed with media coverage — with Trump telling Bolton that he was ‘prepared to sign a substance-free communique, have a press conference to declare victory, and then get out’ of Singapore. 

“Kim and his ruling circle ‘think they’ve got Trump’s number,’ said Susan Thornton, who served as acting assistant secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific during Trump’s first 18 months in office. 

“The North Korean autocrat has sent several signals suggesting he wants Trump to win in November, labeling Biden ‘a rabid dog’ that needs to be beaten. Some Korea analysts believe the North is making a calculated effort to refrain from provoking the United States during the campaign, even as Pyongyang takes aim at South Korea, blowing up a joint liaison office in Kaesong in mid-June… ‘They want Trump to be able to keep saying he has basically fixed the North Korea situation ... glossing over the notion that they’re still building up weapons, and they’re still shooting off short-range missiles,’ Thornton said.” Noah Bierman writing for the August 24th Los Angeles Times. North Korea wants a different dog in the White House, one where they hold the other end of the leash. And the President has long since let go of the reins. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and as the GOP Convention spins and twists to find successes, their glaring failures in international relations seem that much more dangerous to the security of our nation.