The Biden administration does not have any legal powers until January 20th, and there is a very big risk of either limited or no transitional accommodation by the outgoing Trump administration. We are in at the inception of the second wave of COVID-19, with the highest levels of new infections since the pandemic began. We have over a quarter of a million deaths in this country from this virus. The situation is getting worse very fast. What is particularly interesting is which areas of the country that are experiencing the worst statistics.
“Out of 376 counties with the highest number of new coronavirus infections per capita, a whopping 93% went for Trump, according to an analysis by the Associated Press. Most of these were rural counties in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Wisconsin. These also happen to be the kinds of areas where people put less stock in protective public health measures such as social distancing and mask-wearing.
“Perhaps that comes as no surprise; columnist Steve Lopez lamented earlier this week that masks have morphed from a simple infection-prevention tool into a potent political symbol. Still, this stark divide is giving public health officials pause. COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are still rising, and officials hope to find a way to reset public sentiment and reframe their message now that voting is over.
“‘Public health officials need to step back, listen to and understand the people who aren’t taking the same stance’ on mask-wearing and other control measures, said Dr. Marcus Plescia of the Assn. of State and Territorial Health Officials.
“Polling shows that Trump supporters and Biden supporters had sharply differing views of the country’s response to the pandemic and whether it is under control. Of Trump voters, 36% said the pandemic is completely or mostly under control, and 47% said it is somewhat under control, according to a survey conducted for the AP by Norc at the University of Chicago. In contrast, 82% of Biden voters said the pandemic is not at all under control.
“Trump voters said in interviews that they value individual freedom and thought the president was doing as well as anyone could under the circumstances… Take Michaela Lane, a 25-year-old Republican from Phoenix. ‘I feel like the most important issue facing the country as a whole is liberty at large,’ Lane said. ‘Infringing on people’s freedom, government overrule, government overreach, chaos in a lot of issues currently going on and just giving people back their rights.’” Amina Khan writing for the November 6th Los Angeles Times.
There is absolutely no constitutional right that permits individuals to ignore legal mandates aimed at preventing a pandemic. There is also no provision in any statute or the Constitution that imbues any individual with the unilateral power to accept or reject legal requirements they believe violate their rights. They are welcome to pursue their belief in court, but absent that supporting judicial determination, the law is the law… for everybody. But the Trump administration has pretty much taken the posture that letting the virus find its own course, allowing herd immunity to develop (which could not happen, without an effective and widely accepted vaccine, within any tolerable time line), is now their official strategy for this coronavirus.
Most experts agree that absent significant containment of the coronavirus, our economy is not going to snap back in a “V”-shaped recovery. Too many businesses have closed permanently, and consumers have not recovered their appetite for mass-attendance events – sports or entertainment. Too many deferred-buy-moratorium rents are currently due and payable. Too many loans have been taken out just to get by. Etc. Etc.
With evidence that the antibodies in recovered COVID patients are not necessarily permanent, given the current lack of a proven and safe vaccine, we are in for at least half a year or more of exceptionally difficult times. And between now and the inauguration, there is nothing to force Donald Trump and his followers to change their attitude and behavior towards this virus.
As Europe seems to be willing to effect genuine lockdowns to stem their own second wave issues, Americans seem to be profoundly “COVID weary” and lockdown averse. “[Yet] the frustratingly resilient pathogen [has not] shown much sympathy for Americans’ growing weariness, their desire to see schools and businesses to reopen, for unremitting talk of ‘social distancing’ and ‘learning pods’ to be relegated to a distant memory.
“If anything, the virus appears to be strengthening, killing more than a thousand Americans every day this week while recording more than 100,000 daily infections. More than 50,000 people across the nation are hospitalized. The share of coronavirus diagnostic tests coming back positive has risen to 8.2 percent to his week; last week’s share of positive tests was a markedly lower 7.2 percent.
“‘The numbers are pretty scary,’ says Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor, taking stock of the national situation. As he was speaking to Yahoo News on Thursday, the nation was on its way to a record 133,000 new cases for that day. Hospitalizations have been rapidly climbing too, leading to concerns that we may once more see what we saw over the spring and early summer: crowded intensive care units, overwhelmed hospitals, deaths that could have been prevented… ‘It’s a slaughter,’ Dr. Hotez said. ‘We’re going to have to take steps.’
“But some officials within the Trump administration acknowledge that there is little appetite among the public with the kinds of lockdowns that took place throughout last spring. Parts of Europe recently reinstituted lockdowns, though this time around the measures were met with some public resistance.
“In some quarters, a resignation prevails. The sentiment was best encapsulated by Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, who in late October made a stunning admission to Jake Tapper of CNN: ‘We’re not going to control the pandemic,’ the former North Carolina congressman said. ‘We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations.’
“Meanwhile, the federal response is in disarray, with President Trump consumed with spreading misinformation about an election he appears to have lost but which remained too close to call as of Saturday morning. In the run-up to that contest, he conducted a relentless series of campaign rallies that a Stanford study projected may have led to as many as 30,000 new infections and 700 additional deaths.” Yahoo News, November 7th. Without containing the second major wave, a further third major wave is increasingly likely as well. By Saturday, November 8th, we hit a record 128,000 new cases in a single day!
Joe Biden won’t be getting much help from mask-averse Texas and the Midwest: Texas became the first state to surpass a million coronavirus cases in the United States on Saturday [11/7], as the country battled [another] wave of new infections and recorded over 100,000 infections three times in less than a week.” Reuters, November 7th. And then this: “So far, the most distinct regional pattern as the virus enters its third wave is happening in the Midwest. On Wednesday [10/28], hospitalizations reached the highest levels yet in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Ohio.
“Adjusted for population, the Midwest’s cases surpassed the peak New York and New Jersey saw in April. Of the 15 cities with the highest rate of new infections [since mid-October], 11 are in North Dakota or Wisconsin… The most alarming thing about the Midwestern outbreak is not its severity, but its grim predictability… And despite having months to prepare, Midwestern governors have taken steps that exacerbate the spread of the coronavirus, with no impetus from national leaders to do otherwise.” Huffington Post, October 31st. Pandemic fatigue has fostered the belief that we can just open all schools and business and just get used to the virus, a deeply flawed assumption. The resulting medical and economic devastation is difficult to contemplate.
Joe Biden not only has to deal with stopping this virus but with convincing Americans engaging in risky behavior – under misguided notion of exercising personal freedom – to adopt protective measures and stop spreading the virus. The economic recovery will not happen any other way. On top of that, Biden is going to have figure out how to move financially-impaired Americans through this crisis and how to convince a divided Congress how to inject a further massive infusion of investment capital (for infrastructure, education, healthcare and research a la FDR’s New Deal) necessary to restore a solid American economy.
What can newly elected President Biden do if he cannot get the implementing legislation through a GOP-controlled Congress (assuming it stays that way), particularly where additional funding is required? “The first step for Biden is to ‘work with the tools you have,’ says [Andy Slavitt, the former Acting Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services appointed by President Obama]. Specifically, he’s referring to executive power. Experts agree it’s probably not legal for a president to mandate a national quarantine. However, a president can enact the Defense Production Act—and Biden has actually said that he will.
“You probably heard about the Defense Production Act already this year, as many speculated that Trump could turn to the policy to produce ventilators and distribute supplies. It’s a law that allows the president to command American companies to create necessary supplies in times of critical national defense, but Trump never used it. In this case, Slavitt would like to see American companies producing PPE. Gloves. Masks. Gowns. You name it.
“While PPE shortages are rarely in the news these days, they continue to be a real problem for ICUs in the U.S. Outside hospitals, PPE is something we’ll need in excess to reopen our country safely rather than haphazardly, experts agree.
“The other thing we need more of are testing kits, and the Defense Production Act could spur that along, too. As of now, most of us view testing kits as something you get when you think you have COVID-19, and you go to a walk-up or drive-up facility to get swabbed in your car. But that’s only a baseline of what we can do with the right support. Slavitt imagines more people testing themselves at home, and pretty much all the time before they enter public spaces. This would make gathering safer, since you can spread COVID-19 for nearly a week before symptoms show up.” FastCompany.com, November 7th. With glimmers of hope in early clinical vaccine trials (Pfizer’s results were exceptionally good), Biden may just have to figure out how to get Americans to accept the ultimate vaccine and to be able to get it to them effectively. Let’s hope.
The good news, Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris: you won the election. The bad news… yeah, it’s all yours going forward!!! In his acceptance speech, Joe Biden made containing COVID-19 his priority and has already assembled the team dedicated to lead this effort.
I’m Peter Dekom, the President-Elect not only has to figure out how to get us out of this mess… but how to change the minds of tens of millions of Americans who will fight tooth and nail to keep him from doing just that.
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